UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Oryxslayer]

Tamworth Results:

Sarah Edwards (Labour):  11,719
Andrew Cooper (C‌onservative): 10,403
Ian Cooper (Reform UK): 1,373

_____Saved Deposit_______

Robert Bilcliff (UKIP): 436
Howling Laud Hope (Loony): 155
Sue Howarth (Green): 417
Peter Longman (Ind): 86
Ashlea Simon (Britain First): 580
Sunny Virk (Liberal-Democrat): 417

Labour Flip

[Harlow]

Oof, the Britain First and UKIP candidates beating the Greens and Lib Dems.

[icc]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

[Torrain]

Mid Beds provisionally expected in the next 20 minutes.

[Kalimantan]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

[adma]

Well, mea culpa w/my earlier anticipation of underperformance for Reform UK.

[YL]

Well, mea culpa w/my earlier anticipation of underperformance for Reform UK.

They ought to be doing better than that in Tamworth if their polling is accurate.

The worst thing about this result is Britain First getting a not completely embarrassing result.

[icc]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

[Oryxslayer]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

Some of us were expecting it to be closer to the historic swing in Dudley West rather than Selby, mainly cause Pincher seemingly created a worse environment for the local party then even the national situation.

[Torrain]

Second-largest Con-Lab swing since 1945 in Tamworth tonight.

[Kalimantan]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

There's always a floor for each party meaning hig swimgs won't be uniform,  and i expect that Brexit voters have changed what the Tory foor is in certain former Labour safe seats or marginals. Is that what you're getting at?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Monstrous swing. The parts of the constituency outside Tamworth town put a hard limit on things, and yet nevertheless...

Btw, as far as social and economic structures are concerned, the area has changed quite substantially since the 1990s (not in Labour's favour at all) and Pincher had a 2:1 lead over Labour in 2015.

[icc]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

There's always a floor for each party meaning hig swimgs won't be uniform,  and i expect that Brexit voters have changed what the Tory foor is in certain former Labour safe seats or marginals. Is that what you're getting at?

Pretty much - the size of the swing in the polls has led many (including myself) to conclude that Labour will see a bigger swing back in their favour in Brexit-voting marginals and ex-marginals, whilst possibly falling short in a place like Rushcliffe, a remain voting area which has recently become semi-marginal.

This result (not to over-extrapolate!) may indicate that the swing at the next GE is going to be more uniform than expectations.

[Wiswylfen]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

I doubt it. A large part of the different result seems to be down to the town and surrounding area changing. A lot more affluent commuters than twenty or thirty years ago.

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

There's always a floor for each party meaning hig swimgs won't be uniform,  and i expect that Brexit voters have changed what the Tory foor is in certain former Labour safe seats or marginals. Is that what you're getting at?

Brexit is almost irrelevant at this point. The Tory floor has changed in those 'certain former Labour safe seats' mainly because of consolidation with the collapse of the Lib Dems—but try explaining that to any of the 'Red Wall' people. You can see the same process in reverse in much of southern England.

[icc]

Monstrous swing. The parts of the constituency outside Tamworth town put a hard limit on things, and yet nevertheless...

Btw, as far as social and economic structures are concerned, the area has changed quite substantially since the 1990s (not in Labour's favour at all) and Pincher had a 2:1 lead over Labour in 2015.

Just to note - the parts of the constituency outside Tamworth town have always been included in the seat. This isn't relevant to comparisons with previous results.

[Wiswylfen]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

There's always a floor for each party meaning hig swimgs won't be uniform,  and i expect that Brexit voters have changed what the Tory foor is in certain former Labour safe seats or marginals. Is that what you're getting at?

Pretty much - the size of the swing in the polls has led many (including myself) to conclude that Labour will see a bigger swing back in their favour in Brexit-voting marginals and ex-marginals, whilst possibly falling short in a place like Rushcliffe, a remain voting area which has recently become semi-marginal.

This result (not to over-extrapolate!) may indicate that the swing at the next GE is going to be more uniform than expectations.

I don't know what you're talking about. In July we saw a swing of five points in an affluent suburban London seat and a swing of more than twenty in a Brexit-voting Red Wall seat.

[YL]

Mid Bedfordshire

Labour 13872 (34.1%, +12.4)
Con 12680 (31.1%, -28.6)
Lib Dem 9420 (23.1%, +10.5)
Mackey 1865 (4.6%, new)
Reform UK 1487 (3.7%, new)
Green 732 (1.8%, -2.0)
OMRLP 249 (0.6%, -0.2)
Eng Dem 107 (0.3%, new)
CPA 101 (0.2%, new)
True and Fair 93 (0.2%, -1.0 on the candidate's result as Independent)
Heritage 63 (0.2%, new)
Emperor of India 27 (0.1%, new)
Mainstream 24 (0.1%, new)

Lab gain from Con
Majority 1192
Swing 20.5%

[Sestak]

AKINBUSOYE (CON): 12,680
HOLLAND-LINDSAY (LD): 9,420
STRATHERN (LAB): 13,872

[Oryxslayer]

Mid-Bedfordshire Result:


Alistair Strathern (Labour): 13,872
Festus Akinbusoye (C‌onservative): 12,680
Emma Holland-Lindsay (Liberal-Democrat): 9,420

_____Saved Deposit_______

Sid Cordle (Christian People's): 101
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (Ind): 27
Dave Holland (Reform UK): 1,487
Ann Kelly (Loony): 249
Gareth Mackey (Ind): 1,865
Chris Rooney (Mainstream): 24
Cade Sibley (Green): 732
Alberto Thomas (Heritage Party): 63
Alan Victor (True and Fair Party): 93
Antonio Vitiello (English Democrats): 107

Labour Gain

[Wiswylfen]

Another Labour gain in a post-industrial, rural Red Wall seat.

[Pericles]

Lmao the Tories got humiliated tonight. Love to see them losing Mid Bedfordshire and with such a huge swing, they can't even win a seat with a 25,000 majority when the opposition vote is split. They are such a toxic government.

[morgieb]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

There's always a floor for each party meaning hig swimgs won't be uniform,  and i expect that Brexit voters have changed what the Tory foor is in certain former Labour safe seats or marginals. Is that what you're getting at?

Pretty much - the size of the swing in the polls has led many (including myself) to conclude that Labour will see a bigger swing back in their favour in Brexit-voting marginals and ex-marginals, whilst possibly falling short in a place like Rushcliffe, a remain voting area which has recently become semi-marginal.

This result (not to over-extrapolate!) may indicate that the swing at the next GE is going to be more uniform than expectations.

I don't know what you're talking about. In July we saw a swing of five points in an affluent suburban London seat and a swing of more than twenty in a Brexit-voting Red Wall seat.

Uxbridge was more down to ULEZ/Sadiq backlash I thought?

[Wiswylfen]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

There's always a floor for each party meaning hig swimgs won't be uniform,  and i expect that Brexit voters have changed what the Tory foor is in certain former Labour safe seats or marginals. Is that what you're getting at?

Pretty much - the size of the swing in the polls has led many (including myself) to conclude that Labour will see a bigger swing back in their favour in Brexit-voting marginals and ex-marginals, whilst possibly falling short in a place like Rushcliffe, a remain voting area which has recently become semi-marginal.

This result (not to over-extrapolate!) may indicate that the swing at the next GE is going to be more uniform than expectations.

I don't know what you're talking about. In July we saw a swing of five points in an affluent suburban London seat and a swing of more than twenty in a Brexit-voting Red Wall seat.

Uxbridge was more down to ULEZ/Sadiq backlash I thought?

Yes, the metropolitan elite love their luxury beliefs. They don't understand the concerns of real people in places like Selby.

[Coldstream]

Absolutely thrashed the Lib Dem’s. Should kill them off across the country and force them to stick to a few dozen deeply Tory seats.

[YL]

Another Labour gain in a post-industrial, rural Red Wall seat.

Well, they did use to make the materials for Red Walls here.