UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[brucejoel99]

However... the main thing is the Conservative vote dropping like an absolute rock which is what happens when Governments are doing very badly & by-elections come along.

No, it obviously must be the Red Wall voters who've lost touch with the common man.

[brucejoel99]

The Wakefield poll makes me want a Tiverton & Honiton poll. It's an even safer Tory seat than Chesham & Amersham, but if the swing is even just the same as it was there, it'll go Lib Dem. Given BoJo's unpopularity rn, I wanna see its numbers.

[brucejoel99]

Likelihood of a T&H poll?  It's nice to see not one but two (so far) confirming what we already suspected about Wakefield, but let's see where the real fun is getting started…

I think it's at least moderately likely that we get one from Survation.

Interestingly the Lib Dems haven't leaked anything yet (unless the tweet I mentioned in a previous post counts).

It’s a bit early for a Lib Dem poll leak; they usually like to wait until the last week. Of course, the widespread expectation that they will win is probably not viewed as a positive inside Lib Dem HQ.

Well, not exactly an internal poll leak, but certainly some expectation-setting:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1534485560106143744

[brucejoel99]

Alok Sharma is pushing to get a high-level climate change role at the UN.

Thought it was worth posting, because his seat, Reading West, is pretty marginal. He won it by just above 4,000 in 2019, and around 2,800 in 2017. The seat was Labour from 1997-2010, and Tory before that. Classic bellwether.

Genuine pick-up opportunity for Labour if he goes, and some bad press for the government if they were to lose the seat of a cabinet member.

His majority is so narrow that the 2019 Lab/Lib Dem votes outnumber his. This by-election should be a Labour coronation.

[brucejoel99]

Miliband bros…our time has come

🙏