UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Coldstream]

Anyone whose been out in Wakefield would have seen that the independent candidate Akef Akbar (an ex-Tory councillor) is campaigning heavily, his posters are everywhere - probably more than for Labour and certainly more than for the Tories (of which I saw none). 9/10 times. independents do poorly, and the fact he has a lot of posters on lampposts isn’t indicative of actual support, but he may end up taking a good chunk of Tory votes which increases the overall margin of victory for Labour.

[JimJamUK]

Anyone whose been out in Wakefield would have seen that the independent candidate Akef Akbar (an ex-Tory councillor) is campaigning heavily, his posters are everywhere - probably more than for Labour and certainly more than for the Tories (of which I saw none). 9/10 times. independents do poorly, and the fact he has a lot of posters on lampposts isn’t indicative of actual support, but he may end up taking a good chunk of Tory votes which increases the overall margin of victory for Labour.

I saw on Twitter a Labour activist who has been to the seat claim that he might take more from Labour than the Conservatives. Given that he’s a Muslim from the usually safest Labour ward in the constituency, that may well be the case.

[YL]

Anyone whose been out in Wakefield would have seen that the independent candidate Akef Akbar (an ex-Tory councillor) is campaigning heavily, his posters are everywhere - probably more than for Labour and certainly more than for the Tories (of which I saw none). 9/10 times. independents do poorly, and the fact he has a lot of posters on lampposts isn’t indicative of actual support, but he may end up taking a good chunk of Tory votes which increases the overall margin of victory for Labour.

I saw on Twitter a Labour activist who has been to the seat claim that he might take more from Labour than the Conservatives. Given that he’s a Muslim from the usually safest Labour ward in the constituency, that may well be the case.

Indeed, I think that's likely.

Not that it matters but the Wakefield Green candidate seems a bit of a car crash. That 8% poll will probably be well off the mark.

Specifically, she got into a Twitter spat with some Yorkshire Party activists after apparently saying she supported Yorkshire independence (which the YP don't, to be clear).  It also included her opinions on Leeds United FC, which TBF are probably shared by most supporters of other football clubs in the area, but there will be a fair number of Leeds fans in the Wakefield electorate.

[brucejoel99]

Likelihood of a T&H poll?  It's nice to see not one but two (so far) confirming what we already suspected about Wakefield, but let's see where the real fun is getting started…

I think it's at least moderately likely that we get one from Survation.

Interestingly the Lib Dems haven't leaked anything yet (unless the tweet I mentioned in a previous post counts).

It’s a bit early for a Lib Dem poll leak; they usually like to wait until the last week. Of course, the widespread expectation that they will win is probably not viewed as a positive inside Lib Dem HQ.

Well, not exactly an internal poll leak, but certainly some expectation-setting:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1534485560106143744

[JimJamUK]

Well, not exactly an internal poll leak, but certainly some expectation-setting:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1534485560106143744

Why would a former Liberal Democrat MP know the overall margin and then leak it to the Telegraph? And how do they arrive at the 5000 figure given the exact result is obviously not baked in weeks before the actual election?

Expectation seeking indeed.

[Blair]

My point was that in those seats Labour generally had to drag it’s vote out- there doesn’t seem to be that same feeling, although a lot of that is because it’s Tory held.

 I did confuse Rotterham with Heywood somehow!

[Blair]

Well, not exactly an internal poll leak, but certainly some expectation-setting:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1534485560106143744

Why would a former Liberal Democrat MP know the overall margin and then leak it to the Telegraph? And how do they arrive at the 5000 figure given the exact result is obviously not baked in weeks before the actual election?

Expectation seeking indeed.

They often use ex MPs on campaigns- they’re free Labour!

[Blair]

Very early muttering about a Reading (East?) by election if Alok Sharma quits to take up a UN climate position.

Doing so would be an FU to the Government as it would be a hard by-election to defend- I didn’t realise how marginal it was even in 2019.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone whose been out in Wakefield would have seen that the independent candidate Akef Akbar (an ex-Tory councillor) is campaigning heavily, his posters are everywhere - probably more than for Labour and certainly more than for the Tories (of which I saw none). 9/10 times. independents do poorly, and the fact he has a lot of posters on lampposts isn’t indicative of actual support, but he may end up taking a good chunk of Tory votes which increases the overall margin of victory for Labour.

I saw on Twitter a Labour activist who has been to the seat claim that he might take more from Labour than the Conservatives. Given that he’s a Muslim from the usually safest Labour ward in the constituency, that may well be the case.

Suspect that will depend on how much traction he gets outside his ward: if the answer is none, then he will mostly take votes (and not all that many on balance - the Pakistani population in Wakefield East was about 12% in 2011 and while it's clearly higher now and more likely to turn out in low turnout polls this isn't exactly Manningham) from Labour. If he gets any traction elsewhere it will be as an Independent Conservative, in which case he'll presumably take more from his former party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very early muttering about a Reading (East?) by election if Alok Sharma quits to take up a UN climate position.

Doing so would be an FU to the Government as it would be a hard by-election to defend- I didn’t realise how marginal it was even in 2019.

West. Sharma's performance in 2019 was surprisingly poor, but it is an absurdly socially polarised constituency.

[Oryxslayer]

Very early muttering about a Reading (East?) by election if Alok Sharma quits to take up a UN climate position.

Doing so would be an FU to the Government as it would be a hard by-election to defend- I didn’t realise how marginal it was even in 2019.

Reading West* and yes it would be another hard hold. I get the suspicion this seat is on borrowed time for the Tories and will be part of a future Labour opposition - like Cardiff North and Canterbury now.

[YL]

Well, not exactly an internal poll leak, but certainly some expectation-setting:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1534485560106143744

Why would a former Liberal Democrat MP know the overall margin and then leak it to the Telegraph? And how do they arrive at the 5000 figure given the exact result is obviously not baked in weeks before the actual election?

Expectation seeking indeed.

It's been suggested that the former Lib Dem MP could be Lembit Öpik.  That said the suggested majority seems quite plausible.

[Tintrlvr]

Very early muttering about a Reading (East?) by election if Alok Sharma quits to take up a UN climate position.

Doing so would be an FU to the Government as it would be a hard by-election to defend- I didn’t realise how marginal it was even in 2019.

Reading West* and yes it would be another hard hold. I get the suspicion this seat is on borrowed time for the Tories and will be part of a future Labour opposition - like Cardiff North and Canterbury now.

Given the nature of the Tory demographics in the seat, if the bottom is falling out, Reading West is the sort of seat where the Tories could potentially fall from first to third, even though the Lib Dems were nowhere in the seat in 2019. Labour would win of course, but there are a lot of Tory voters who wouldn't switch to Labour but would be quite willing to vote Lib Dem.

[Coldstream]

Anyone whose been out in Wakefield would have seen that the independent candidate Akef Akbar (an ex-Tory councillor) is campaigning heavily, his posters are everywhere - probably more than for Labour and certainly more than for the Tories (of which I saw none). 9/10 times. independents do poorly, and the fact he has a lot of posters on lampposts isn’t indicative of actual support, but he may end up taking a good chunk of Tory votes which increases the overall margin of victory for Labour.

I saw on Twitter a Labour activist who has been to the seat claim that he might take more from Labour than the Conservatives. Given that he’s a Muslim from the usually safest Labour ward in the constituency, that may well be the case.

I guess it’s possible but I seriously doubt it. For one his leaflets are Tory Blue, his campaign is so Tory that we assumed he was the Tory candidate until we actually read the fine print.

[Coldstream]

Very early muttering about a Reading (East?) by election if Alok Sharma quits to take up a UN climate position.

Doing so would be an FU to the Government as it would be a hard by-election to defend- I didn’t realise how marginal it was even in 2019.

Reading West* and yes it would be another hard hold. I get the suspicion this seat is on borrowed time for the Tories and will be part of a future Labour opposition - like Cardiff North and Canterbury now.

Given the nature of the Tory demographics in the seat, if the bottom is falling out, Reading West is the sort of seat where the Tories could potentially fall from first to third, even though the Lib Dems were nowhere in the seat in 2019. Labour would win of course, but there are a lot of Tory voters who wouldn't switch to Labour but would be quite willing to vote Lib Dem.

Reading West also benefits from a well organised CLP - certainly more so than Wakefield. And because it’s next to London activists will pour in constantly, I’d be pretty optimistic about our chances of taking it even without the Tories current difficulties.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Well, not exactly an internal poll leak, but certainly some expectation-setting:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1534485560106143744

Why would a former Liberal Democrat MP know the overall margin and then leak it to the Telegraph? And how do they arrive at the 5000 figure given the exact result is obviously not baked in weeks before the actual election?

Expectation seeking indeed.

It's been suggested that the former Lib Dem MP could be Lembit Öpik.  That said the suggested majority seems quite plausible.

Hasn't he pretty thougrily burned his bridges with the Party ? why would he have the poll figures ?

[YL]

Why would a former Liberal Democrat MP know the overall margin and then leak it to the Telegraph? And how do they arrive at the 5000 figure given the exact result is obviously not baked in weeks before the actual election?

Expectation seeking indeed.

It's been suggested that the former Lib Dem MP could be Lembit Öpik.  That said the suggested majority seems quite plausible.

Hasn't he pretty thougrily burned his bridges with the Party ? why would he have the poll figures ?

I think the idea was that he was the most likely former Lib Dem MP to speak to the Telegraph.  The figure given could just be a guess rather than any sort of internal Lib Dem estimate.

I wouldn't take this line of argument very seriously, mind.  Plenty of Labour figures talk to hostile newspapers.

[Torrain]

Alok Sharma is pushing to get a high-level climate change role at the UN.

Thought it was worth posting, because his seat, Reading West, is pretty marginal. He won it by just above 4,000 in 2019, and around 2,800 in 2017. The seat was Labour from 1997-2010, and Tory before that. Classic bellwether.

Genuine pick-up opportunity for Labour if he goes, and some bad press for the government if they were to lose the seat of a cabinet member.

[brucejoel99]

Alok Sharma is pushing to get a high-level climate change role at the UN.

Thought it was worth posting, because his seat, Reading West, is pretty marginal. He won it by just above 4,000 in 2019, and around 2,800 in 2017. The seat was Labour from 1997-2010, and Tory before that. Classic bellwether.

Genuine pick-up opportunity for Labour if he goes, and some bad press for the government if they were to lose the seat of a cabinet member.

His majority is so narrow that the 2019 Lab/Lib Dem votes outnumber his. This by-election should be a Labour coronation.

[Torrain]

*snip

His majority is so narrow that the 2019 Lab/Lib Dem votes outnumber his. This by-election should be a Labour coronation.

Indeed - universal swing alone would hand Labour the seat under current polling. Add the renewed interest in tactical voting we’ve seen, and the Tories would be completely scunnered here.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though isn't the point about Lembit Opik that he is very much estranged from the LibDems now?

[Blair]

Yeah it’s a bizarre theory.

It’s like suggesting Kate Hoey would have access to Labour polling data.

[Blair]

Remember when we asked why the Mail kept publishing rubbish re ‘Lib-Lab evil pact’.

It’s basically done by CCHQ so they can put their claims on leaflets like this as impartial newspaper headlines.

https://mobile.twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1534340691576356869

[Blair]

Boris visiting Tiverton.

Was rumoured to be happening- did he visit North Shropshire?

[CumbrianLefty]

I think he did, yes?

One thing about T & H is that the Tory candidate - who appeared impressive on paper - has proved to be something of a liability on the campaign trail. Whereas the LibDems seem to have gone with pretty much the ideal choice for a potential mid-term protest such as this.