UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

One thought I've just had is that both of these seats fall into a category that doesn't get talked about much by the commentariat these days. That is, the classic English marginal and regular bellwether. Okay, maybe Kingswood more than Wellingborough. I don't think either of them tend to be placed in the Red and Blue Wall nonsense.

On a rather grim related note, don't you just know that the phrase 'Yellow Wall' is going to be heard a lot during the next Parliament if the Lib Dems make major advances in the South of England. Is the Tory leader appealing to it, would an alternative Tory leader be more appealing to it etc.

[Joe Republic]

On a rather grim related note, don't you just know that the phrase 'Yellow Wall' is going to be heard a lot during the next Parliament if the Lib Dems make major advances in the South of England. Is the Tory leader appealing to it, would an alternative Tory leader be more appealing to it etc.

There is also the fearsome subdivision of the Yellow Wall that has become dormant in recent years; the dreaded Corn Wall.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls closed.

https://twitter.com/NNorthantsC/status/1758249886632362242?t=qHsC-Q515ETmdJWoVv2...

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1758286118414667844
Feels very early in the evening for an outbreak of consensus. Sounding like a healthy majority...

[YL]

There's also a Lib Dem source claiming a "huge win" for Labour.

EDIT: Wellingborough.

[YL]

Turnouts 37.1% in Kingswood and 38.1% in Wellingborough.

[YL]

Given the circumstances, the polling and the demographics, Reform ought to be doing better than "touching double figures" IMO.

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1758289842851783136

[icc]

Given the circumstances, the polling and the demographics, Reform ought to be doing better than "touching double figures" IMO.

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1758289842851783136

Not to mention the fact they fought this hard. More evidence that their polling numbers aren’t real if this tweet is accurate.

[Torrain]

100%. They've been saying all day that they expect to get 10%, and that's good because it reflects their national polling. While that would be their best Commons result since the Brexit --> Reform rebrand, it seems pretty pitiful in a seat as well-suited to them as Wellingborough.

Held off until now, because I assumed it was just expectation management, and they were going to do a little better...

[Duke of York]

There's also a Lib Dem source claiming a "huge win" for Labour.

EDIT: Wellingborough.

if a seat like this is not safe the general election in the fall will be insane. Sky news will be beyond entertaining to watch.

[Oryxslayer]

Kingswood potentially in an hour. Labour saying they have won it, but frankly, was it ever in doubt?

Also, it will be interesting if Labour surpasses the Con+Reform total in Wellingborough. Yes the Torys had horrible optics there, but it will really blow a hole in the idea that victory is achievable if only the Con voters who are disgruntled right now come home over the course of a campaign as anticipated.

[Oryxslayer]

Kingswood

Sam Bromiley (C‌on) 8675, 34.9%, (-21.3%)
Andrew Brown (Lib-Dem) 861, 3.5%, (-3.4%)
Damian Egan (Labour) 11176, 45%, (+11.5%)
Lorraine Francis (Green) 1450, 5.8%, (+3.4%)
Rupert Lowe (Reform UK) 2578, 10.4%, (New)
Nicholas Wood (UKIP) 129, 0.5%, (New)

[YL]

Lab 44.9% (+11.5)
Con 34.9% (-21.3)
Reform UK 10.4% (new)
Green 5.8% (+3.4%)
Lib Dem 3.5% (-3.5)
UKIP 0.5% (new)

Swing 16.4%

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Poor result for the Tories, but dreadful for Sunak himself.

[YL]

Actually a decent result for Reform there. Greens will be quite happy too.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Actually a decent result for Reform there.

I was just going to post that Reform actually lived up to their polling here, however, since you beat me to it, I decided to not post it.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

For those living in the U.K here, if Sunak promised to change the election reporting so that it was reported poll by poll rather than only the final result announced, would you vote for Conservative?

I'm asking strictly hypothetically, I don't think Sunak has made any such promise.

Of course, we'd lose the Monster Raving Loony Party candidate standing with all the other candidates, then, but, can't have everything.

[Torrain]

Labour beating the Tories by 10%, while Reform gets 10.4%, is going to drive certain strategists up the wall.

Presumably we'll end up with another media cycle of Conservative backbenchers demanding the party ignore Tory-Lab switchers and focus on running to the right to recapture that 10%.

[Oryxslayer]

For those living in the U.K here, if Sunak promised to change the election reporting so that it was reported poll by poll rather than only the final result announced, would you vote for Conservative?

I'm asking strictly hypothetically, I don't think Sunak has made any such promise.

Of course, we'd lose the Monster Raving Loony Party candidate standing with all the other candidates, then, but, can't have everything.

That isn't a reporting issue, it's a tabulation issue. The UK has stood firm to hand counts in centralized locations.  Even when it requires multiple days like at certain local elections.  Because of this process,  the detailed results that can be tracked and tabulated through electronic machines requires that much more effort on the part of volunteers during a overnight process. It's why breakdowns of results below the constituency level for the election in question are so hard to find if they happen to exist.

I doubt this is going to change without some clear and proven reason and undeniable justification. Cause it's a tradition that for many does no harm.

[Torrain]

Labour beating the Tories by 10%, while Reform gets 10.4%, is going to drive certain strategists up the wall.

Presumably we'll end up with another media cycle of Conservative backbenchers demanding the party ignore Tory-Lab switchers and focus on running to the right to recapture that 10% again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That isn't a reporting issue, it's a tabulation issue. The UK has stood firm to hand counts in centralized locations.  Even when it requires multiple days like at certain local elections.  Because of this process,  the detailed results that can be tracked and tabulated through electronic machines requires that much more effort on the part of volunteers during a overnight process. It's why breakdowns of results below the constituency level for the election in question are so hard to find if they happen to exist.

Actually that isn't the reason: as it's quicker to count by geographical area even at a central location and so this is nearly always done. The reason why detailed breakdowns are not generally published or even formally tabulated is an over-reaction to the previous lack of a secret ballot and the publication (!) of poll books which recorded how each elector voted. In parts of the countryside (and especially in the more rural parts of Wales) there were repeated scandals in the mid Victorian era where tenants were evicted for voting against their landlord's wishes. As late as the 1930s it was common for Labour election literature in some rural areas to include messages such as 'Remember: the ballot box is secret'. Long ago and far away now, but that's the root of it all.

[YL]

Candidates finally being called for the provisional result in Wellingborough.

[YL]

Lab 13844 (45.9%, +19.5)
Con 7408 (24.6%, -37.6)
Reform UK 3919 (13.0%, new)
Lib Dem 1422 (4.7%, -3.1)
Turner-Hawes 1115 (3.7%, new)
Green 1020 (3.4%, -0.1)
Watts 533 (1.8%, new)
Britain First 477   (1.6%, new)
OMRLP 217 (0.7%, new)
Pyne-Bailey 172 (0.6%, new)
Love   18 (0.1%, new)

Majority 6436      
Swing 28.5%      

[Pericles]

What a huge swing, wow.

[Oryxslayer]

Wellingborough:

Nick the Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony): 217, 0.7%, (Did Not Previously Stand)
Ana Gunn (Lib-Dems): 1422, 4.7%, (-3.2%)
Ben Habib (Reform UK): 3919, 13%, (Did Not Previously Stand)
Helen Harrison (Conservative): 7408, 24.6%, (-37.6%)
Ankit Love JKNPP Jay Mala Post-Mortem (Perennial Indie): 18, 0.06%, (Did Not Previously Stand)
Gen Kitchen (Labour): 13844, 45.9%, (+19.4%)
Alex Merola (Britain First/Indie): 477, 1.6%, (Did Not Previously Stand)
Will Morris (Green): 1020, 3.4%, (-0.1%)
Andre Pyne-Bailey (Indie): 172, 0.6%, (Did Not Previously Stand)
Marion Turner-Hawes (Indie): 1115, 3.7%, (Did Not Previously Stand)
Kev Watts (Indie): 533, 1.8%, (Did Not Previously Stand)


Labour Gain