UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

Will the Tories carry on as in 2019 and select a Muslim candidate in Rochdale if Labour don't? However opportunistically, they might hope to exploit local unease over the Middle East that way.

[Torrain]

Seems possible. The other likely candidates seem to be members of Rochdale council, who the leadership are hardly going to endorse given recent history, but who might start a narrative about parachuted candidate that the Tories could then build on, unlikely as an upset would be.

Surprised Galloway hasn’t already thrown his fedora into the ring, tbh.

[Torrain]

The other news of the day is that Sinn Fein MP Michelle Gildernew has announced that she’s running for the European Parliament in Ireland, and is expected to resign as MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Ultra-slim majority of 57 over the UUP at the last election. But that was an odd race (there were a bunch of alliances set up between the parties in 2019, on a seat-by-seat basis), where Sinn Fein, Alliance and the SDLP all ran, but the DUP stood aside for the UUP, so things could be rather different depending on who stands, and if polling continues to shift.

[DL]

The other news of the day is that Sinn Fein MP Michelle Gildernew has announced that she’s running for the European Parliament in Ireland, and is expected to resign as MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Ultra-slim majority of 57 over the UUP at the last election. But that was an odd race (there were a bunch of alliances set up between the parties in 2019, on a seat-by-seat basis), where Sinn Fein, Alliance and the SDLP all ran, but the DUP stood aside for the UUP, so things could be rather different depending on who stands, and if polling continues to shift.

I'm curious whether demographically over the last 4 years there would have been any change in the Catholic vs Protestant population in that seat. Seems like the general trend in NI is for the Protestant share of the population to be steadily shrinking

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What % of the electorate in Rochdale is likely to be Muslim?

[YL]

I'm curious whether demographically over the last 4 years there would have been any change in the Catholic vs Protestant population in that seat. Seems like the general trend in NI is for the Protestant share of the population to be steadily shrinking

Slowly shrinking, I think, but not enough to make very much difference. Ken Maginnis actually won an absolute majority of the vote in his last election in 1997, which was the first election after boundary changes removed Coalisland from the constituency, but since then the Unionists have only come out on top in 2015, which is also the only election where the total Unionist share increased from the previous one.

Sinn Féin seem to have lost some votes to the SDLP there in 2019, perhaps because of abstentionism being an issue in the last Parliament (though there may be other reasons). If they can get that back they should be OK.

Anyway, this should be less contentious than the last two Fermanagh & South Tyrone by-elections.

(All assuming it happens, of course. It's not clear that she'll actually resign her seat before the Euro election, and even with a late -- November or later -- General Election date that's getting pretty close to the point at which seats could reasonably just be left vacant. And she might not get elected...)

[YL]

What % of the electorate in Rochdale is likely to be Muslim?

The population is 30.5% Muslim (2021 census), the 18th highest in the country. The figure for the electorate is probably a little lower than that.

(Batley & Spen, for comparison, is 23.1% Muslim.)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What % of the electorate in Rochdale is likely to be Muslim?

The population is 30.5% Muslim (2021 census), the 18th highest in the country. The figure for the electorate is probably a little lower than that.

(Batley & Spen, for comparison, is 23.1% Muslim.)

Ah.
So sizable. But definitely not the majority or anything close.

[Torrain]

Ah.
So sizable. But definitely not the majority or anything close.

At last count, there are only three majority-Muslim constituencies - Birmingham Hodge Hill (62%), Bradford West (59%), Birmingham Hall Green (56%).

There are another 11 with a Muslim plurality in England.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What % of the electorate in Rochdale is likely to be Muslim?

The population is 30.5% Muslim (2021 census), the 18th highest in the country. The figure for the electorate is probably a little lower than that.

(Batley & Spen, for comparison, is 23.1% Muslim.)

Yes, it's high, but not as high as people are apt to think (the misconception comes from the usual Pennine levels of residential segregation of course). It is largely Pakistani but there is also a Bengali community centered on the Wardleworth district. The Pakistani community in particular was an important source of support for the Liberals when the constituency was in the oversized pocket of the now disgraced MP Cyril Smith and was an important swing block in local elections. Substantial movement to Labour allowed the seat to be finally gained in 1997; a swing back due to Iraq was enough for it to be narrowly lost in 2005 and the lessening of that meant a narrow gain against the grain in 2010. The local LibDems then collapsed due to a combination of the usual Coalition-era issues in lower-income constituencies and the revelations about Smith, which tarnished the brand considerably.

[YL]

What % of the electorate in Rochdale is likely to be Muslim?

The population is 30.5% Muslim (2021 census), the 18th highest in the country. The figure for the electorate is probably a little lower than that.

(Batley & Spen, for comparison, is 23.1% Muslim.)

Yes, it's high, but not as high as people are apt to think (the misconception comes from the usual Pennine levels of residential segregation of course). It is largely Pakistani but there is also a Bengali community centered on the Wardleworth district. The Pakistani community in particular was an important source of support for the Liberals when the constituency was in the oversized pocket of the now disgraced MP Cyril Smith and was an important swing block in local elections. Substantial movement to Labour allowed the seat to be finally gained in 1997; a swing back due to Iraq was enough for it to be narrowly lost in 2005 and the lessening of that meant a narrow gain against the grain in 2010. The local LibDems then collapsed due to a combination of the usual Coalition-era issues in lower-income constituencies and the revelations about Smith, which tarnished the brand considerably.

Before 2010, wasn't it already regarded as notionally Labour following the boundary changes? Of course it received some attention in that election.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think it was accepted as being even more of a photo-finish than in 2005, yes. IIRC the final "official" estimate had it as Labour by 50 votes or something like that, so in reality it was too close to call.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The other news of the day is that Sinn Fein MP Michelle Gildernew has announced that she’s running for the European Parliament in Ireland, and is expected to resign as MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Ultra-slim majority of 57 over the UUP at the last election. But that was an odd race (there were a bunch of alliances set up between the parties in 2019, on a seat-by-seat basis), where Sinn Fein, Alliance and the SDLP all ran, but the DUP stood aside for the UUP, so things could be rather different depending on who stands, and if polling continues to shift.

I'm curious whether demographically over the last 4 years there would have been any change in the Catholic vs Protestant population in that seat. Seems like the general trend in NI is for the Protestant share of the population to be steadily shrinking

Census data on religion is at the moment only available for local authorities, and F&ST contains part of two separate local authorities (and in both cases, the less Catholic part.) With that codicil, between 2011 and 2021 in both of the component local authorities the Catholic share grew but only barely, whilst the Protestant figure fell and most of the balance was a rise in those not brought up in a religion.

In practice, most of those "Nones" will be part of the Protestant community, even if they aren't religiously Protestant.

[Continential]

Surprised Galloway hasn’t already thrown his fedora into the ring, tbh.

What has he been doing since his loss in Batley and Spen?

[Torrain]

Surprised Galloway hasn’t already thrown his fedora into the ring, tbh.

What has he been doing since his loss in Batley and Spen?

Spreading antisemitic dogwhistles and threatening to run for London Mayor - so just the usual.

[YL]

11 candidates for Wellingborough

Nick The Flying Brick (OMRLP)
Ana Savage Gunn (Lib Dem)
Ben Habib (Reform UK)
Helen Jane Harrison (Con) [1]
Ankit Love Jknpp Jay Mala Post-Mortem (no description) [2]
Gen Kitchen (Lab)
Alex Merola (Britain First)
Will Morris (Green)
Andre Pyne-Bailey (Independent) [3]
Marion Eileen Turner-Hawes (no description) [4]
Kev Watts (Independent) [5]

[1] Nominated by Mrs Bone
[2] Yes, that's what it says. No longer the Emperor of India, apparently. (Some explanation of what is going on may be found here)
[3] Not found anything yet.
[4] Wellingborough town councillor and "Save the Trees" campaigner. Green candidate in the constituency in 2019 and 2015.
[5] Irchester parish councillor and former Labour member; stood for Wellingborough DC as Labour in 2015.

[YL]

Surprised Galloway hasn’t already thrown his fedora into the ring, tbh.

What has he been doing since his loss in Batley and Spen?

Spreading antisemitic dogwhistles and threatening to run for London Mayor - so just the usual.

Also in April 2022 he got flagged on Twitter as "Russian state-affiliated media".

[YL]

What % of the electorate in Rochdale is likely to be Muslim?

The population is 30.5% Muslim (2021 census), the 18th highest in the country. The figure for the electorate is probably a little lower than that.

(Batley & Spen, for comparison, is 23.1% Muslim.)

Yes, it's high, but not as high as people are apt to think (the misconception comes from the usual Pennine levels of residential segregation of course). It is largely Pakistani but there is also a Bengali community centered on the Wardleworth district.

You of course will know this but it is worth pointing out that like most Metropolitan Boroughs which are named after towns, the Borough of Rochdale contains various places which weren't part of Rochdale before 1974 and which will still regard themselves as separate places. The more easterly ones, Milnrow, Newhey, Littleborough and Wardle, were in the Littleborough & Saddleworth constituency between 1983 and 1997 but are now all in this constituency, and they are all quite white.

The others, Heywood and Middleton, of course have their own constituency. However it should also be noted that when Littleborough & Saddleworth was abolished some western areas of Rochdale proper, including some of its more middle class bits, were added to Heywood & Middleton. More followed in 2010, and the coming changes are going to move even more into what will now be called Heywood & Middleton North but will contain quite a chunk of Rochdale town. (The existing boundaries will be used for the by-election.)

[YL]

Labour shortlist for Rochdale:

Azhar Ali, Lancashire county councillor (Nelson East division)
Nazia Rehman, Wigan councillor (Abram ward)
Paul Waugh, political journalist (will he beat Seb Payne to a selection?)

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbh that shortlist looks rather good for him, whether by accident or design - and I do suspect that the decision not to include any *local* councillors was deliberate.

[Blair]

Tbh that shortlist looks rather good for him, whether by accident or design - and I do suspect that the decision not to include any *local* councillors was deliberate.

Judging by the campaign materials of his rivals Waugh should win by simply turning up.

[YL]

Tbh that shortlist looks rather good for him, whether by accident or design - and I do suspect that the decision not to include any *local* councillors was deliberate.

Judging by the campaign materials of his rivals Waugh should win by simply turning up.

I imagine that was the idea.

[Flyersfan232]

11 candidates for Wellingborough

Nick The Flying Brick (OMRLP)
Ana Savage Gunn (Lib Dem)
Ben Habib (Reform UK)
Helen Jane Harrison (Con) [1]
Ankit Love Jknpp Jay Mala Post-Mortem (no description) [2]
Gen Kitchen (Lab)
Alex Merola (Britain First)
Will Morris (Green)
Andre Pyne-Bailey (Independent) [3]
Marion Eileen Turner-Hawes (no description) [4]
Kev Watts (Independent) [5]

[1] Nominated by Mrs Bone
[2] Yes, that's what it says. No longer the Emperor of India, apparently. (Some explanation of what is going on may be found here)
[3] Not found anything yet.
[4] Wellingborough town councillor and "Save the Trees" campaigner. Green candidate in the constituency in 2019 and 2015.
[5] Irchester parish councillor and former Labour member; stood for Wellingborough DC as Labour in 2015.

Nick the flying brick is who the uk needs right now!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and I do suspect that the decision not to include any *local* councillors was deliberate.

Quite so.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour doing some expectations management with Kingswood, it seems.