UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[JimJamUK]

Is someone going to do a write-up of the seat for the benefit of the uninitiated? Could be, ahem, interesting.

It’s basically the southern part of Blackpool (and a majority of the council itself). It’s largely working class, in some cases very (very) poor. It’s actually not really a pensioners seat despite the reputation, though the suburbs are noticeably older and more middle class than most of the seat. Blackpool is of course a famous seaside resort. It went into decline many decades ago, and is basically the poster child of downmarket British holiday destinations.

Politically, it was originally a safe Conservative seat. I don’t believe boundary changes have been that big, so for the Conservative majority to be smaller in 1983 than 1945 is suggestive of a long term trend towards Labour. This occurred in many seaside towns, but the marked decline of the town will have helped. Labour finally gained it with a large majority in 1997, and still held on in 2010. It looked fairly secure at this point, but of course 2019 happened and both the size of the majority and the ~70% Leave vote led to a Conservative gain. The swing at the 2023 local elections was on the lower end of what Labour was getting in this sort of place, but not enough to suggest a Conservative hold, especially in a scandal caused by-election.

[TheTide]

Anyone intending to canvass there might be interested to know that you can get a £1 burger from this place.

https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g186332-d6479548-Reviews-Higgitt_s_Las_Vegas_Amusements-Blackpool_Lancashire_England.html

[YL]

Here are the top twelve Lower Super Output Areas for deprivation in the 2019 Index of Multiple Deprivation for England.  As this is England only, Rhyl does not feature.

1. Tendring 018A (i.e. part of Jaywick, Essex)
2. Blackpool 010A (in Bloomfield ward)
3. Blackpool 006A (in Claremont ward)
4. Blackpool 013B (Bloomfield again)
5. Blackpool 013A (and again)
6. Blackpool 013D (in Waterloo ward)
7. Blackpool 010E (in Talbot ward)
8. Blackpool 011A (back in Bloomfield)
9. Blackpool 008D (Claremont again)
10. Liverpool 019C (in Anfield ward)
11. Blackpool 006B (Claremont again)
12. Blackpool 013C (Bloomfield yet again)

Claremont is in Blackpool North & Cleveleys but will move to South in the next General Election; the other Blackpool wards listed are already in South.

[TheTide]

Here are the top twelve Lower Super Output Areas for deprivation in the 2019 Index of Multiple Deprivation for England.  As this is England only, Rhyl does not feature.

1. Tendring 018A (i.e. part of Jaywick, Essex)
2. Blackpool 010A (in Bloomfield ward)
3. Blackpool 006A (in Claremont ward)
4. Blackpool 013B (Bloomfield again)
5. Blackpool 013A (and again)
6. Blackpool 013D (in Waterloo ward)
7. Blackpool 010E (in Talbot ward)
8. Blackpool 011A (back in Bloomfield)
9. Blackpool 008D (Claremont again)
10. Liverpool 019C (in Anfield ward)
11. Blackpool 006B (Claremont again)
12. Blackpool 013C (Bloomfield yet again)

Claremont is in Blackpool North & Cleveleys but will move to South in the next General Election; the other Blackpool wards listed are already in South.

I've probably set foot in or near most of those areas. Been on multiple holidays in Blackpool, have had a couple of visits to Anfield for football reasons and went on holiday to Clacton as a five-year old. These visits all took place from about the late 1990s to late 2000s, and they all seemed pretty grim then. This was before austerity, of course.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Here are the top twelve Lower Super Output Areas for deprivation in the 2019 Index of Multiple Deprivation for England.  As this is England only, Rhyl does not feature.

1. Tendring 018A (i.e. part of Jaywick, Essex)
2. Blackpool 010A (in Bloomfield ward)
3. Blackpool 006A (in Claremont ward)
4. Blackpool 013B (Bloomfield again)
5. Blackpool 013A (and again)
6. Blackpool 013D (in Waterloo ward)
7. Blackpool 010E (in Talbot ward)
8. Blackpool 011A (back in Bloomfield)
9. Blackpool 008D (Claremont again)
10. Liverpool 019C (in Anfield ward)
11. Blackpool 006B (Claremont again)
12. Blackpool 013C (Bloomfield yet again)

Claremont is in Blackpool North & Cleveleys but will move to South in the next General Election; the other Blackpool wards listed are already in South.

What connects Jaywick (the closest thing the UK has to a shanty town) and those parts of Blackpool isn't just that they're seaside towns, it's also that these are places you end up when everything has gone very wrong with your life and there's nowhere else you can go.

[Torrain]

Benton is appealing his suspension, and making a complaint to the Independent Expert Panel. He says members of the Standards Committee leaked data about his suspension before he’d seen it, and then goes on a short ramble about how effective he’s been as an MP. Amazed he had the restraint to avoid calling it a witch hunt, although that’s clearly implied.

It’s not going to save him, of course, but it’s clear he’s going to try and play this out for as long as possible - Ferrier-style.

[CumbrianLefty]

Appeals seem to be quite swiftly dealt with when it is an open and shut case, though - that was certainly the case with Ferrier. So it is unlikely Benton will drag things out that much further and his appeal is set to be heard soon after parliament reconvenes next month.

So it should still be possible to have a byelection (intervening GE permitting) in May if not earlier.

[YL]

The Wellingborough recall outcome is expected at around 8pm this evening, apparently.

[Torrain]

And we're off:
https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1737207073258066326

[YL]

A bit lower than I'd expected, though not really close to failing.

Bone has said that he "will have more to say on these matters in the New Year".  Perhaps he is intending to stand in the by-election.  (Assuming it happens: if Sunak is definitely planning a spring election and happy for people to infer this it probably won't.)

[Blair]

Very telling that it’s basically assumed labour will easily win a seat with an 18K Tory majority in a heavily leave area.

[Wiswylfen]

Anyone intending to canvass there might be interested to know that you can get a £1 burger from this place.

https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g186332-d6479548-Reviews-Higgitt_s_Las_Vegas_Amusements-Blackpool_Lancashire_England.html

The food poisoning comes free.

[CumbrianLefty]

Very telling that it’s basically assumed labour will easily win a seat with an 18K Tory majority in a heavily leave area.

Though it did vote Labour in 1997 and 2001, before narrowly going Tory in 2005.

[Conservatopia]

Apart from the rigged one, every recall petition has easily passed. Is this a good thing? I'm of two minds.

[Blair]

Apart from the rigged one, every recall petition has easily passed. Is this a good thing? I'm of two minds.

The interesting thing is that the current system is a weird hybrid; it was originally intended that a recall would happen if you were suspended for longer than 10 days from the House. This often only happened in rather obvious breaches of rules of traditional parliamentary rules e.g not declaring free flights or hotel trips, doing lobbying etc and this had to be investigated by the standards committee and was relatively rare.

But then the ICG scheme was introduced which specifically created a body that could investigate bullying and sexual harassment by MPs; this has in several cases reported and caused MPs to quit rather than face the indignity of a recall.

By my count this is the 10th by election related to members personal conduct

It has never been said but I assumed the hope is that one way to stop this behaviour is that for MPs to realise that breaches of the behaviour code will lead them to lose their jobs; I can't recall all the reports but the committee & body basically now have a button (recommendation of suspension for more than 10 days) which can lead to a by election.

[TheTide]

This could be a useful indication of whether Reform's ~10% support in many national polls is genuine. Wellingborough is the kind of place where the ought to be doing at least somewhat better than whatever their genuine overall support is. Which probably means they'll get about 6% or something like that.

[Cassius]

Apart from the rigged one, every recall petition has easily passed. Is this a good thing? I'm of two minds.

The interesting thing is that the current system is a weird hybrid; it was originally intended that a recall would happen if you were suspended for longer than 10 days from the House. This often only happened in rather obvious breaches of rules of traditional parliamentary rules e.g not declaring free flights or hotel trips, doing lobbying etc and this had to be investigated by the standards committee and was relatively rare.

But then the ICG scheme was introduced which specifically created a body that could investigate bullying and sexual harassment by MPs; this has in several cases reported and caused MPs to quit rather than face the indignity of a recall.

By my count this is the 10th by election related to members personal conduct

It has never been said but I assumed the hope is that one way to stop this behaviour is that for MPs to realise that breaches of the behaviour code will lead them to lose their jobs; I can't recall all the reports but the committee & body basically now have a button (recommendation of suspension for more than 10 days) which can lead to a by election.

Yes, it’s definitely a record for members resigning or being recalled due to scandal. It’s interesting to look at how the makeup of by-elections has changed over the years; before the expenses scandal (which led directly to the resignations of Michael Martin and Ian Gibson and helped midwife the recall system) it was basically unheard of for MPs to resign because of a scandal. Instead, the principle cause of by-elections tended to be deaths, which have declined dramatically in recent parliaments, presumably due to most MPs being younger/healthier. It would be interesting to have seen how many by-elections the Major government would have had to endure had the modern rules and mores around the personal conduct of MPs been in place then.

[YL]

Apart from the rigged one, every recall petition has easily passed. Is this a good thing? I'm of two minds.

The interesting thing is that the current system is a weird hybrid; it was originally intended that a recall would happen if you were suspended for longer than 10 days from the House. This often only happened in rather obvious breaches of rules of traditional parliamentary rules e.g not declaring free flights or hotel trips, doing lobbying etc and this had to be investigated by the standards committee and was relatively rare.

But then the ICG scheme was introduced which specifically created a body that could investigate bullying and sexual harassment by MPs; this has in several cases reported and caused MPs to quit rather than face the indignity of a recall.

By my count this is the 10th by election related to members personal conduct

It has never been said but I assumed the hope is that one way to stop this behaviour is that for MPs to realise that breaches of the behaviour code will lead them to lose their jobs; I can't recall all the reports but the committee & body basically now have a button (recommendation of suspension for more than 10 days) which can lead to a by election.

Yes, it’s definitely a record for members resigning or being recalled due to scandal. It’s interesting to look at how the makeup of by-elections has changed over the years; before the expenses scandal (which led directly to the resignations of Michael Martin and Ian Gibson and helped midwife the recall system) it was basically unheard of for MPs to resign because of a scandal. Instead, the principle cause of by-elections tended to be deaths, which have declined dramatically in recent parliaments, presumably due to most MPs being younger/healthier. It would be interesting to have seen how many by-elections the Major government would have had to endure had the modern rules and mores around the personal conduct of MPs been in place then.

Certainly Colne Valley and Bosworth, as those MPs actually did get suspensions which would have triggered the recall procedure had it existed.  The report into the better known Hamilton/Smith case didn't report until after the 1997 election, when both were no longer MPs.

As you say most by-elections back then were due to deaths, whereas since 2010 they're roughly equally split between deaths, scandal and people taking other jobs, with a few which don't really fall into any of those categories.

One cause which has of course completely disappeared but used to appear from time to time was the MP inheriting a hereditary peerage (before 1963, whether they wanted it or not).

[CumbrianLefty]

Apart from the rigged one, every recall petition has easily passed. Is this a good thing? I'm of two minds.

I wasn't totally sold on recall when it was proposed, but on balance it has been a good thing - and one of the parts of our political system that works reasonably well (in contrast to other aspects just now)

Its advocates actually hope that over time the number of recall byelections will decrease as their just being there has a deterrent effect on MPs. 

[Wiswylfen]

Anyone intending to canvass there might be interested to know that you can get a £1 burger from this place.

https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g186332-d6479548-Reviews-Higgitt_s_Las_Vegas_Amusements-Blackpool_Lancashire_England.html

The food poisoning comes free.

On that note I will be getting a rover (well, combining two) next year to campaign in Blackpool and twice a day participate in the Blackpool North station experience/experiment. I will try the burger and report back if I am still alive.

[Blair]

Why has there been a reduction in the number of MPs resigning to take ‘big jobs’?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Why has there been a reduction in the number of MPs resigning to take ‘big jobs’?

They’re doing f*uck-all right now and getting paid for it. Why go for a job that requires “actual work”?

[Wiswylfen]

Elaborating on my Blackpool North comment for the benefit of anyone who may be going to Blackpool to canvass: the railway station is (in)famous (among people interested in the railway, anyway) for its authoritarian atmosphere and the staff’s hostility to any and all passengers. The doors of the station building are only unlocked upon arrival and just before departure, all year at all times. Yes, this has led to trains departing without any passengers on in the past.

Blackpool South, on the other hand, is Blackpool South. Enjoy your hourly service as far as Preston!

edit: Oh, yes, the constituencies: despite the names you can get to Blackpool South fairly easily from either of them. Blackpool North is just across the constituency boundary.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why has there been a reduction in the number of MPs resigning to take ‘big jobs’?

They’re doing f*uck-all right now and getting paid for it. Why go for a job that requires “actual work”?

The sort of "big jobs" beloved of ex-Tory MPs in particular don't always involve this tbf

[EastAnglianLefty]

This could be a useful indication of whether Reform's ~10% support in many national polls is genuine. Wellingborough is the kind of place where the ought to be doing at least somewhat better than whatever their genuine overall support is. Which probably means they'll get about 6% or something like that.

That applies just as much to Tamworth if not more, so that may be a generous estimate.