UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Wiswylfen]

It’s OK, people, you’re allowed to call it junk. Though maybe I’m just a little mad about having sent him ward results and him completely ignoring them resulting in wards that are off by around thirty points.

[Blair]

It’s been briefed overnight that the Tories are fine because ‘Starmer isn’t Blair so it won’t be 1997’(the fun counter is that 2024 could end up in political memory as being worse!) and that voters really want tax cuts and flights to Rwanda. What a strange party.

[TheTide]

It’s been briefed overnight that the Tories are fine because ‘Starmer isn’t Blair so it won’t be 1997’(the fun counter is that 2024 could end up in political memory as being worse!) and that voters really want tax cuts and flights to Rwanda. What a strange party.

They are doing what I suspected and seeing the harder right votes in each seat (which were slightly higher than usual for a parliamentary by-election) as the main lesson to draw. Alternatively it could be an attempt by Sunak to shore up his internal position ahead of his immunity to a challenge formally expiring within a few days. Probably a mixture of the two actually.

[Coldstream]

It’s been briefed overnight that the Tories are fine because ‘Starmer isn’t Blair so it won’t be 1997’(the fun counter is that 2024 could end up in political memory as being worse!) and that voters really want tax cuts and flights to Rwanda. What a strange party.

They are doing what I suspected and seeing the harder right votes in each seat (which were slightly higher than usual for a parliamentary by-election) as the main lesson to draw. Alternatively it could be an attempt by Sunak to shore up his internal position ahead of his immunity to a challenge formally expiring within a few days. Probably a mixture of the two actually.

From what I saw of Tamworth & Mid Beds the Reform/hard right vote hates the Tories more than they hate us. And won’t go back to them for a while at least.

[CumbrianLefty]

They slightly overstated the Tory win in 1979 too, on the whole.

Elections where they were commendably close were 1987, 2005 and (remarkably) 2019.

There was a moment in the 1979 campaign when Callaghan was told (I forget by whom) that Labour could win the election. He replied "I'm afraid we might." This exchange may have been caused by a poll released, I think, the weekend before the election showing a small Labour lead.

That poll was a complete outlier, though - many even in the closing stages of the campaign gave a Tory lead of 10-15 points (they actually won by about 7)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Fun fact: the Labour Party has only made one gain in a by-election in the 21st century (Corby in 2012).

In general, the party has had bad luck in what seats have come up; but it's been a very poor record - even in the Miliband era you had herculean efforts to win seats like Heywood and Middleton etc. The rot has been settling in, and sadly it's bigger than Corbyn and Starmer.

Maybe this matters, maybe this doesn't: after all the Lib Dems have a history of patting themselves on their back and then flopping in the real election (before Chesham we have Eastleigh and Richmond Park, both of which were washed away in the very next election). But the fact is we have a repeated event of Labour desperately trying to stop losses from opposition, even in times of unpopular governments. Peterborough. Hartlepool. Stoke Central. Copeland.

This old post is why I find the "muh turnout" cope from Tories so fascinating. Even if it is true (it isn't) that all the abstaining voters were the Tory base, what seemed like the new normal of Labour really finding by-elections tricky has quite abruptly been turned on its head.

[Blair]

Fun fact: the Labour Party has only made one gain in a by-election in the 21st century (Corby in 2012).

In general, the party has had bad luck in what seats have come up; but it's been a very poor record - even in the Miliband era you had herculean efforts to win seats like Heywood and Middleton etc. The rot has been settling in, and sadly it's bigger than Corbyn and Starmer.

Maybe this matters, maybe this doesn't: after all the Lib Dems have a history of patting themselves on their back and then flopping in the real election (before Chesham we have Eastleigh and Richmond Park, both of which were washed away in the very next election). But the fact is we have a repeated event of Labour desperately trying to stop losses from opposition, even in times of unpopular governments. Peterborough. Hartlepool. Stoke Central. Copeland.

This old post is why I find the "muh turnout" cope from Tories so fascinating. Even if it is true (it isn't) that all the abstaining voters were the Tory base, what seemed like the new normal of Labour really finding by-elections tricky has quite abruptly been turned on its head.

Yes I’m old enough to remember when winning in Wakefield was seen as a very good result as it was iirc a 6K majority- we’ve now reached the stage where labour and Liberals are under performing expectations if they don’t overturn 20,000 majorities

[Blair]

Out of interest where has the weird trend come from about looking at raw vote totals rather than vote share?

I've heard a lot of political commentators, even the non-hacks, basically repeat rubbish such as 'well Labours raw vote barely went up so there isn't any enthusiasm'- yet even when I did my A-levels I knew that by elections always had lower turnout...

[MaxQue]

Out of interest where has the weird trend come from about looking at raw vote totals rather than vote share?

I've heard a lot of political commentators, even the non-hacks, basically repeat rubbish such as 'well Labours raw vote barely went up so there isn't any enthusiasm'- yet even when I did my A-levels I knew that by elections always had lower turnout...

CCHQ and the leadership of the employers of those commentators.

[Wiswylfen]

My estimates from last night: Bourne Vale Conservative majority of at least ten points, probably significantly more than that; Mease Valley likewise; Shenstone ~30; and Little Aston and Stonnall ~20-25. Didn't bother with the other rural wards. The extent to which these are monolithically Tory cannot be emphasised enough. Look at the results in the 2015 locals held on the same day as the GE to see what I mean.

Shenstone was Conservative by almost forty points in May; in Little Aston and Stonnall the combined Conservative/Independent* vote led Labour by sixty points.

*I am reliably informed that they were dissident Tories. Obviously not all of their voters will have been the same so you can (as I have done) revise this down a bit but it's still going to be very, very Conservative in the by-election.

[MT Treasurer]

The last time you had swings as big and consistent as in Mid Bedfordshire, Tamworth and Rutherglen and Hamilton West was in 1945, but if Sunak decided not to run in 2025, the Tories would just acknowledge that he’s been a failed Prime Minister, no?

[OSR stands with Israel]

The last time you had swings as big and consistent as in Mid Bedfordshire, Tamworth and Rutherglen and Hamilton West was in 1945, but if Sunak decided not to run in 2025, the Tories would just acknowledge that he’s been a failed Prime Minister, no?

The problem for the Tories is not Sunak given the bottom fell out for them with Truss and they started to decline in the fall of 2021 under Boris. In fact the Tories would be in better shape today if they just chose Sunak over Truss to begin with even though they would obviously still be losing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Anyway I read this funny analogy on Reddit. Basically Sunak is Major while Truss was Black Wednesday of this government.

[MABA 2020]

It’s been briefed overnight that the Tories are fine because ‘Starmer isn’t Blair so it won’t be 1997’(the fun counter is that 2024 could end up in political memory as being worse!) and that voters really want tax cuts and flights to Rwanda. What a strange party.

Also people were saying the same things about Blair before 97, that he wasn't inspiring voters.

[YL]

Here are the performances by "populist right" parties at English by-elections this Parliament.  I've excluded Southend West, as it was uncontested by the main opposition parties.

I chose not to include the Christian People's Alliance (more religious right than populist right), the Freedom Alliance (more conspiracy theorists and anti-lockdown policies than any sort of nationalist tendencies) or Piers Corbyn's Let London Live (similar to Freedom Alliance) although there's some fishing in the same pool going on.  I also didn't include George Galloway, although I suspect he was also fishing in that pool to some extent, and the lowly position of Batley & Spen in the list supports that thesis.

Including the SDP might be a little controversial among some of their supporters but based on what I've seen of their literature is the correct decision.

Tamworth Reform UK 5.4%, Britain First 2.3%, UKIP 1.7%
Old Bexley & Sidcup Reform UK 6.6%, Eng Dem 1.3%, UKIP 0.8%, Heritage 0.5%
North Shropshire Reform UK 3.8%, Reclaim 1.0%, UKIP 1.0%, Heritage 0.2%
Selby & Ainsty Reform UK 3.7%, SDP 0.9%, Heritage 0.5%
-----above here they collectively got enough to save a deposit-----
West Lancashire Reform UK 4.4%
Mid Bedfordshire Reform UK 3.7%, Eng Dem 0.3%, Heritage 0.2%
Somerton & Frome Reform UK 3.4%, UKIP 0.7%
Wakefield Reform UK 1.9%, Britain First 1.1%, UKIP 0.5%, Eng Dem 0.5%
Stretford & Urmston Reform UK 3.5%, SDP 0.4%
City of Chester Reform UK 2.7%, UKIP 0.6%
Uxbridge & South Ruislip Reclaim 2.3%, SDP 0.8%, UKIP 0.2%
Hartlepool Heritage 1.6%, Reform UK 1.2%, SDP 0.4%
Tiverton & Honiton Reform UK 1.1%, UKIP 0.6%, Heritage 0.4%, For Britain 0.3%
Batley & Spen Eng Dem 0.6%, UKIP 0.4%, For Britain 0.3%, SDP 0.2%, Heritage 0.1%, Ind Fransen 0.1%
Birmingham Erdington Reform UK 1.7%
Chesham & Amersham Reform UK 1.1%

[oldtimer]

It’s been briefed overnight that the Tories are fine because ‘Starmer isn’t Blair so it won’t be 1997’(the fun counter is that 2024 could end up in political memory as being worse!) and that voters really want tax cuts and flights to Rwanda. What a strange party.

Well they are correct, in 1997 the economy was booming which probably reduced Labour's victory margin.

This time the British economy is crap, and has been since about the beginning of this century.

So it ought to be worse than 1997 for them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Out of interest where has the weird trend come from about looking at raw vote totals rather than vote share?

I've heard a lot of political commentators, even the non-hacks, basically repeat rubbish such as 'well Labours raw vote barely went up so there isn't any enthusiasm'- yet even when I did my A-levels I knew that by elections always had lower turnout...

CCHQ and the leadership of the employers of those commentators.

Actually, it is driven at least as much by the other wing of politics.

After the Wakefield byelection, for example, online Corbynistas got #Laboursworstsince1931 (or similar) trending on Twitter, this was of course a reference to their numerical vote and nothing else.

Some of those who propagate this meme are simply thick, but others are actively mendacious.

[somerandomth]

I think a lot of it stems from statistical/data illiteracy which is super bad among the general public and lots of people on twitter (looking at you, Corbynistas....)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I wonder if the time has run out for a Romford by election - if Reform can't do well in a by-election there, they can't anywhere.

[Torrain]

Given how long it took to eject the Member for Wakefield, I think Romford would have to be a post-charge resignation, rather than an expulsion/recall. Wellingborough, Blackpool South & Solihull all feel more likely at this stage. Maybe Newcastle upon Tyne East, if we ever find out what's going on there.

Given how ugly things have become in East Kilbride (with Cameron and her young family leaving their home and closing her constituency office after death threats), I wouldn't *entirely* rule out an early vacancy there.

[Wiswylfen]

Here are the performances by "populist right" parties at English by-elections this Parliament.  I've excluded Southend West, as it was uncontested by the main opposition parties.

I chose not to include the Christian People's Alliance (more religious right than populist right), the Freedom Alliance (more conspiracy theorists and anti-lockdown policies than any sort of nationalist tendencies) or Piers Corbyn's Let London Live (similar to Freedom Alliance) although there's some fishing in the same pool going on.  I also didn't include George Galloway, although I suspect he was also fishing in that pool to some extent, and the lowly position of Batley & Spen in the list supports that thesis.

Including the SDP might be a little controversial among some of their supporters but based on what I've seen of their literature is the correct decision.

Tamworth Reform UK 5.4%, Britain First 2.3%, UKIP 1.7%
Old Bexley & Sidcup Reform UK 6.6%, Eng Dem 1.3%, UKIP 0.8%, Heritage 0.5%
North Shropshire Reform UK 3.8%, Reclaim 1.0%, UKIP 1.0%, Heritage 0.2%
Selby & Ainsty Reform UK 3.7%, SDP 0.9%, Heritage 0.5%
-----above here they collectively got enough to save a deposit-----
West Lancashire Reform UK 4.4%
Mid Bedfordshire Reform UK 3.7%, Eng Dem 0.3%, Heritage 0.2%
Somerton & Frome Reform UK 3.4%, UKIP 0.7%
Wakefield Reform UK 1.9%, Britain First 1.1%, UKIP 0.5%, Eng Dem 0.5%
Stretford & Urmston Reform UK 3.5%, SDP 0.4%
City of Chester Reform UK 2.7%, UKIP 0.6%
Uxbridge & South Ruislip Reclaim 2.3%, SDP 0.8%, UKIP 0.2%
Hartlepool Heritage 1.6%, Reform UK 1.2%, SDP 0.4%
Tiverton & Honiton Reform UK 1.1%, UKIP 0.6%, Heritage 0.4%, For Britain 0.3%
Batley & Spen Eng Dem 0.6%, UKIP 0.4%, For Britain 0.3%, SDP 0.2%, Heritage 0.1%, Ind Fransen 0.1%
Birmingham Erdington Reform UK 1.7%
Chesham & Amersham Reform UK 1.1%

And combined:

9.4% Tamworth
9.2% Old Bexley & Sidcup
6.0% North Shropshire
5.1% Selby & Ainsty
4.4% West Lancashire
4.2% Mid Bedfordshire
4.1% Somerton & Frome
4.0% Wakefield
3.9% Stretford & Urmston
3.3% City of Chester
3.3% Uxbridge & South Ruislip
3.2% Hartlepool
2.4% Tiverton & Honiton
1.7% Batley & Spen
1.7% Birmingham Erdington
1.1% Chesham & Amersham

Interesting how low it is in Batley and Spen. Either (as in Hartlepool) consolidation around the Conservative candidate, or maybe George Galloway did make inroads with that vote.

[adma]

I think a lot of it stems from statistical/data illiteracy which is super bad among the general public and lots of people on twitter (looking at you, Corbynistas....)

Not to mention Trumpistas, where there's only two possible outcomes: either you win "by a lot", or it's "rigged".  (And 500+ votes is "a lot", whether you're in a piddling small-electorate ward or Lauren Boebert in CO-3)

[oldtimer]

As a historical point, I'm surprised the Wilson government had such a horror run of by elections-does that mean they were always going to lose 1970?

Yes they where.

The story of the 70's elections (1970,1974, much less of 1979) was Enoch Powell swinging it to Conservatives in 1970 and to Labour in 1974.

He was a proto-Farage that could destroy Governments he hated with his Populism, over Europe and Immigration.

Yeah you can see how big the swings were in the 1970 Election in this clip . Like they didn’t have exit polls in those days but they were able to tell very early on that Labour was gonna lose

You could see them talking about the big swings in the Midlands in both 1970 and the 1974 broadcast, that's Enoch Powell's territory.

Basically 1970 was Powell denouncing Labour as a pro-immigrant party since the "Rivers of Blood" and said vote Tory.

In 1974 he denounced Ted Heath as a pro-european French Poodle and said vote Labour.

The 1979 GE was lost when Dennis Healey went to the IMF, the move was unpopular and the IMF of course messed up.

In all 3 the winner was predetermined years before, only the victory margin was in question.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour was only really doomed pre-1979 by the Winter of Discontent, prior to that polling confirmed that they were at least in with a chance.

And it is even less true that the first 1974 GE was "predetermined" - as already mentioned upthread the consensus in the preceding months was that the Tories were likely to win again and the surges for both the Liberals and Scottish/Welsh Nats seemed to hurt Labour more if anything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is known that David Butler - who kept his politics well-hidden on air but who was basically a moderate Labour man - was genuinely concerned that the February 1974 election might be an utter disaster for Labour when it was first called, given the circumstances.