UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

As a historical point, I'm surprised the Wilson government had such a horror run of by elections-does that mean they were always going to lose 1970?

They were extremely unpopular for a time. The 1968 local election results were notoriously an extreme disaster for Labour, with the Tories winning in all sorts of places you’d never expect them to and Labour not winning a single seat in Birmingham.

[afleitch]

Uxbridge is actually a helpful outlier because the Tories will now obsess over a niche issue which never usually works well for them.

Lol

[Mike88]

With these kind of polls and by-election results, the Tories will only call an election at latest possible date, maybe just in January 2025.

[Torrain]

With these kind of polls and by-election results, the Tories will only call an election at latest possible date, maybe just in January 2025.

Even with Rishi Sunak and Greg Hands running CCHQ, I doubt they’d run an election over Christmas, amid what’s likely to be another NHS crisis, in weather conditions that the Conservatives’ pensioner base-vote won’t be allowed to venture out in.

For my money - it’s still a tossup between going in May (sacrificing six months in office to avoid having to face the outcome of another round of local elections), or October (which means spending the whole summer recess as a defacto election campaign - which could backfire, giving the funding disparity between the major parties).

[icc]

Uxbridge is actually a helpful outlier because the Tories will now obsess over a niche issue which never usually works well for them.

Lol

Very much the Tories' Eastleigh 2013

[Torrain]

Ah, the more things change…
https://twitter.com/AndrejNkv/status/1715316847355077034

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In case you've not seen it, this footage is real, somehow:

https://twitter.com/jacksurfleet/status/1715202369573572924

[Alcibiades]

In case you've not seen it, this footage is real, somehow:

https://twitter.com/jacksurfleet/status/1715202369573572924

I guess you could say he “f**cked off”.

[CumbrianLefty]

This all stems from the morally bankrupt decision to put Mr Blobby in charge.

Short term gain, long term pain.

Many foresaw that, but few predicted by quite how much.

[DL]

As a historical point, I'm surprised the Wilson government had such a horror run of by elections-does that mean they were always going to lose 1970?

They were extremely unpopular for a time. The 1968 local election results were notoriously an extreme disaster for Labour, with the Tories winning in all sorts of places you’d never expect them to and Labour not winning a single seat in Birmingham.

But by the start of the campaign in 1970 Labour under Harold Wilson had managed to turn things around and were consistently leading the Tories in the polls. Everyone expected Labour to be re-elected with almost as large a majority as in 1966 and all the polls pointed to Labour winning the national popular vote by about 4 points. It was considered a huge upset when the Tories under Heath won a majority and won the popular vote by about 3%.

It was the first major polling error in a general election that led to lots of post-mortems on what went wrong (a bit like in 1992). There are a variety of theories of what happened. Some point to some bad economic numbers that were released just days before the election. Some say people were in a bad mood because England lost a big world cup soccer game.

I suspect that considering how ridiculously unpopular the Labour government was as recently as 1969, the comeback was a bit of a mirage. Interestingly, in this day and age the expectation would be that the loser - Harold Wilson - would have immediately resigned after losing an election that was supposed to be in the bag. But instead he stayed on as leader of the opposition for four years and regained power in 1974.

[TheTide]

As a historical point, I'm surprised the Wilson government had such a horror run of by elections-does that mean they were always going to lose 1970?

They were extremely unpopular for a time. The 1968 local election results were notoriously an extreme disaster for Labour, with the Tories winning in all sorts of places you’d never expect them to and Labour not winning a single seat in Birmingham.

But by the start of the campaign in 1970 Labour under Harold Wilson had managed to turn things around and were consistently leading the Tories in the polls. Everyone expected Labour to be re-elected with almost as large a majority as in 1966 and all the polls pointed to Labour winning the national popular vote by about 4 points. It was considered a huge upset when the Tories under Heath won a majority and won the popular vote by about 3%.

It was the first major polling error in a general election that led to lots of post-mortems on what went wrong (a bit like in 1992). There are a variety of theories of what happened. Some point to some bad economic numbers that were released just days before the election. Some say people were in a bad mood because England lost a big world cup soccer game.

I suspect that considering how ridiculously unpopular the Labour government was as recently as 1969, the comeback was a bit of a mirage. Interestingly, in this day and age the expectation would be that the loser - Harold Wilson - would have immediately resigned after losing an election that was supposed to be in the bag. But instead he stayed on as leader of the opposition for four years and regained power in 1974.

The World Cup match in question inspired the title of an alternate history writeup called What If Gordon Banks Had Played?, written by Anthony Wells (quite a well-known figure in UK psephological circles).

1970, 1992 and 2015 are the three most famous polling errors, but there have been others.

- February 1974 had the Tories at least as the largest party.

- October 1974 showed Labour winning a comfortable majority, and indeed the "on the day" poll shows a 1945esque majority.

- 1997 had Labour further ahead, but it was a landslide anyway so few much cared.

- 2001 was like 1997 but to a lesser extent.

- 2010 overestimated the Lib Dems. Cleggmania had faded out by the end of the campaign but the polls still showed the Lib Dems running about neck and neck with Labour.

- 2017 didn't really predict a hung parliament, although the YouGov MRP model did.

[CumbrianLefty]

With these kind of polls and by-election results, the Tories will only call an election at latest possible date, maybe just in January 2025.

Even with Rishi Sunak and Greg Hands running CCHQ, I doubt they’d run an election over Christmas, amid what’s likely to be another NHS crisis, in weather conditions that the Conservatives’ pensioner base-vote won’t be allowed to venture out in.

For my money - it’s still a tossup between going in May (sacrificing six months in office to avoid having to face the outcome of another round of local elections), or October (which means spending the whole summer recess as a defacto election campaign - which could backfire, giving the funding disparity between the major parties).

I think that December 2024 is likelier than the following month, if they decide to hang on to the end.

One argument against next May in Tory circles is the London Mayoralty - some still think they have a chance there in a stand alone election (but virtually none if combined with a GE)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The result in February 1974 was as big a surprise as there has ever been, but it's interesting that that fact has not acquired the mythic status that certain others have. I will refrain from further comment. Anyway, the polls in 1983 were also a bit off, but, like 1997 and 2001, it didn't really matter.

[CumbrianLefty]

They slightly overstated the Tory win in 1979 too, on the whole.

Elections where they were commendably close were 1987, 2005 and (remarkably) 2019.

[TheTide]

They slightly overstated the Tory win in 1979 too, on the whole.

Elections where they were commendably close were 1987, 2005 and (remarkably) 2019.

There was a moment in the 1979 campaign when Callaghan was told (I forget by whom) that Labour could win the election. He replied "I'm afraid we might." This exchange may have been caused by a poll released, I think, the weekend before the election showing a small Labour lead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Monstrous swing. The parts of the constituency outside Tamworth town put a hard limit on things, and yet nevertheless...

Btw, as far as social and economic structures are concerned, the area has changed quite substantially since the 1990s (not in Labour's favour at all) and Pincher had a 2:1 lead over Labour in 2015.

Just to note - the parts of the constituency outside Tamworth town have always been included in the seat. This isn't relevant to comparisons with previous results.

That's why I was careful to avoid any implied references to boundaries! Since the constituency was created in 1983, Labour have always needed to run up a big margin in Tamworth as the size of the Conservative vote in the rest of the constituency is enough to swing even a narrow Labour lead in Tamworth town into a solid Conservative majority across the constituency.* Major changes to the local economy (and so to its social structure) have made this a lot harder to achieve: it is not a basically independent manufacturing town with a lot of links to Birmingham as it was in the 90s, but a Birmingham orbital town with an economy driven by distribution and related industries (even if there remains a reasonable amount of manufacturing, though even there some of the employment is e.g. commuting elsewhere now), and places like that rapidly turned into a Labour death zone across most of the country long before Brexit, even if that then did lead to a further turning of the screw - as must have some of the issues relating to Corbyn's image, especially hostility towards the armed forces which went down like a cold glass of vomit in Staffordshire for obvious reasons. But, again, the notable thing about this constituency is the two-to-one Conservative lead as early as 2015.

_{*E.g. it's possible that Brian Jenkins about tied the vote in Tamworth in 2010 as Labour only trailed by 5pts in the locals on the same day. Lost by 13pts across the constituency anyway. Of course Jenkins being a locally well-known and popular figure - like a surprising number of other nationally low profile New Labour era backbenchers, come to think of it - is another issue.}

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390548721243459584

Oof. I realize that this isn't necessarily all Starmer's fault like it's going to be painted as, but still. Not good.

(also, I suppose any other leader wouldn't have been 20 points ahead)

Amazing how good things looked for the Tories just 2 and a half years ago

[oldtimer]

As a historical point, I'm surprised the Wilson government had such a horror run of by elections-does that mean they were always going to lose 1970?

Yes they where.

The story of the 70's elections (1970,1974, much less of 1979) was Enoch Powell swinging it to Conservatives in 1970 and to Labour in 1974.

He was a proto-Farage that could destroy Governments he hated with his Populism, over Europe and Immigration.

[YL]

Monstrous swing. The parts of the constituency outside Tamworth town put a hard limit on things, and yet nevertheless...

Btw, as far as social and economic structures are concerned, the area has changed quite substantially since the 1990s (not in Labour's favour at all) and Pincher had a 2:1 lead over Labour in 2015.

Just to note - the parts of the constituency outside Tamworth town have always been included in the seat. This isn't relevant to comparisons with previous results.

That's why I was careful to avoid any implied references to boundaries! Since the constituency was created in 1983, Labour have always needed to run up a big margin in Tamworth as the size of the Conservative vote in the rest of the constituency is enough to swing even a narrow Labour lead in Tamworth town into a solid Conservative majority across the constituency.* Major changes to the local economy (and so to its social structure) have made this a lot harder to achieve: it is not a basically independent manufacturing town with a lot of links to Birmingham as it was in the 90s, but a Birmingham orbital town with an economy driven by distribution and related industries (even if there remains a reasonable amount of manufacturing, though even there some of the employment is e.g. commuting elsewhere now), and places like that rapidly turned into a Labour death zone across most of the country long before Brexit, even if that then did lead to a further turning of the screw - as must have some of the issues relating to Corbyn's image, especially hostility towards the armed forces which went down like a cold glass of vomit in Staffordshire for obvious reasons. But, again, the notable thing about this constituency is the two-to-one Conservative lead as early as 2015.

_{*E.g. it's possible that Brian Jenkins about tied the vote in Tamworth in 2010 as Labour only trailed by 5pts in the locals on the same day. Lost by 13pts across the constituency anyway. Of course Jenkins being a locally well-known and popular figure - like a surprising number of other nationally low profile New Labour era backbenchers, come to think of it - is another issue.}

How do you think Little Aston voted in the 1996 by-election?

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390548721243459584
Oof. I realize that this isn't necessarily all Starmer's fault like it's going to be painted as, but still. Not good.

(also, I suppose any other leader wouldn't have been 20 points ahead)

Amazing how good things looked for the Tories just 2 and a half years ago

And the Newspaper Headlines: "Boris to live forever", actually Boris to outlast Thatcher.

For someone who studied Greek Classics like Boris, he should have realised his Hybris and the Divine Punishment that follows it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

As a historical point, I'm surprised the Wilson government had such a horror run of by elections-does that mean they were always going to lose 1970?

Yes they where.

The story of the 70's elections (1970,1974, much less of 1979) was Enoch Powell swinging it to Conservatives in 1970 and to Labour in 1974.

He was a proto-Farage that could destroy Governments he hated with his Populism, over Europe and Immigration.

Yeah you can see how big the swings were in the 1970 Election in this clip . Like they didn’t have exit polls in those days but they were able to tell very early on that Labour was gonna lose

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390548721243459584
Oof. I realize that this isn't necessarily all Starmer's fault like it's going to be painted as, but still. Not good.

(also, I suppose any other leader wouldn't have been 20 points ahead)

Amazing how good things looked for the Tories just 2 and a half years ago

And the Newspaper Headlines: "Boris to live forever", actually Boris to outlast Thatcher.

For someone who studied Greek Classics like Boris, he should have realised his Hybris and the Divine Punishment that follows it.

Imo he was never even that well-liked anyway and he would have lost because of the cost of living crisis anyway, everything else like Partygate and Truss just padded the Labour margin.

[JimJamUK]

How do you think Little Aston voted in the 1996 by-election?

FWIW, the Tories got 84% in a straight fight in 1995…

[YL]

How do you think Little Aston voted in the 1996 by-election?

FWIW, the Tories got 84% in a straight fight in 1995…

What a ridiculous place.

Ben Walker (Britain Elects/New Statesman) did a broadcast this afternoon which included estimates of how each ward in Mid Beds and Tamworth voted yesterday (YouTube link).  The numbers for the ward containing Little Aston don't look as lopsided as I'd expected, though I think his model does have a tendency to even things out across constituencies.

[JimJamUK]

How do you think Little Aston voted in the 1996 by-election?

FWIW, the Tories got 84% in a straight fight in 1995…

What a ridiculous place.

Ben Walker (Britain Elects/New Statesman) did a broadcast this afternoon which included estimates of how each ward in Mid Beds and Tamworth voted yesterday (YouTube link).  The numbers for the ward containing Little Aston don't look as lopsided as I'd expected, though I think his model does have a tendency to even things out across constituencies.

The Little Aston ward now also includes the village of Stonnall, which while very Conservative, is nonetheless noticeably less rusted on than Little Aston.