UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Lord Halifax]

Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.

ironically with the cultural Catholics/gene pool Catholics of Irish descent voting for the Scottish nationalists

[Sol]

Isn't Sunak's seat safe beyond safe?

Southend is one of the southern towns and cities where Labour is surging

I was not aware that this was a thing -- what's the deal?

[JimJamUK]

Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.

ironically with the cultural Catholics/gene pool Catholics of Irish descent voting for the Scottish nationalists

Yeah, although Scottish Labour’s vote tends to be pretty flat across the sectarian divide these days*, it’s the Scottish Tories who vote looks a lot more Protestant.

*Which is not to say there aren’t stark patterns in specific councils and wards, there absolutely are.

[JimJamUK]

Southend is one of the southern towns and cities where Labour is surging

I was not aware that this was a thing -- what's the deal?

There are quite a few places in urban southern England with fairly average demographics where Labour have really underperformed since the 80s onwards. Just as the Conservatives have benefitted from depolarisation in the #RedWall, Labour can do so in these places as well. There’s also some that would be trending Labour in absence of other political change, as they become more popular with younger commuters and similar things.

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1689306849835724801

By-election implications - Labour would be heavily favoured in Rutherglen (and another 15-25 seats, depending on whether swing was national, or more tactical) on those numbers.

R&W have some sampling issues, so take with a pinch of salt. Felt noteworthy though - and their Scottish Lib Dem numbers seem to have come back down from an artificial high a few months back.

What's problematic about Scottish polling is that it's not regular (only R&W have polled since June. Twice) and is often reactive (news things happens; poll is commissioned)

If the SNP are on 37, then it's only down 2-3 points on it's own polling since Sturgeon's resignation.

The 1000 sample from the big FindOutNow gave a 10 point lead but of course, there are weighting issues.

Labour's share is determined by two factors. First the flow of voters since last summer direct from Tory to Labour (as happened in rUK) which is pretty locked in. Then the flow from SNP to Labour which while real, is where pollsters are picking up different movements at different intensities and having to deal with a lot of don't knows.

So effectively we're looking at anything from a lead of 3% to 9 or 10% and that makes a huge difference in seat forecasting.

Same with UK polls; Labour leads are either clustered around mid teens or low twenties depending on the pollster.

Not a problem yet. But certainly something that would be problem when we hit the campaign if it continues.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The SNP vote has almost always been remarkably evenly distributed, which has variously been their greatest asset and their greatest burden depending on quite how high that vote has been. The Labour vote in Scotland has historically tracked both traditional patterns of industry (now usually long-dead, but that isn't the point) and also regional urban centres, the latter actually more so than has often been the case in England. Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.

Although one thing that did stick out in 2019 was that, with some exceptions, the further away you got from Glasgow, the harder the SLab vote collapsed. It may be interesting to see if any of that lingers.

[afleitch]

The SNP vote has almost always been remarkably evenly distributed, which has variously been their greatest asset and their greatest burden depending on quite how high that vote has been. The Labour vote in Scotland has historically tracked both traditional patterns of industry (now usually long-dead, but that isn't the point) and also regional urban centres, the latter actually more so than has often been the case in England. Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.

Although one thing that did stick out in 2019 was that, with some exceptions, the further away you got from Glasgow, the harder the SLab vote collapsed. It may be interesting to see if any of that lingers.

Yes. There was a 'donut' effect. The urban/rural fringe outside Glasgow, particularly the Forth Valley, saw the steepest collapse. Outside of the central belt the collapse was smaller as they had a lower starting point...but...those areas also saw a larger than average increase in Labour's vote in 2017; more so than in places like Lanarkshire. Labour's vote actually dropped in Ayrshire. Both of which demonstrate a bit of a 'rebound' in sectarian voting that year.

[CumbrianLefty]

By-election implications - Labour would be heavily favoured in Rutherglen (and another 15-25 seats, depending on whether swing was national, or more tactical) on those numbers.

R&W have some sampling issues, so take with a pinch of salt. Felt noteworthy though - and their Scottish Lib Dem numbers seem to have come back down from an artificial high a few months back.

This is a classic "glass half full/empty" poll for both Scottish Labour and the SNP.

In the SNP's favour is that they are still ahead, showing amongst other things that the independence question continues to be the dominant factor for many of the voters they won over in 2014-15 - as long as that remains the case, they will still be at the very least competitive for the top spot. Which is pretty good going, considering all they have been through recently.

On the other hand, the past month or so has been relatively calm for them - but despite that this poll suggests they haven't been able to pull back ahead of Labour again, which may show that the recent significant shift in Scottish public opinion could be starting to bed in.

At this point the SNP may recall with a bit of unease that the 2017 GE campaign saw a marked rise in Labour support - now that was also true of the rest of the country then, but may also indicate how a fair few voters in Scotland still respond to how things look south of the border.

In short, it is still all to play for. Which will make Rutherglen all the more fascinating.

[afleitch]

I mentioned on here some time ago that the SNP probably wanted to fight Rutherglen as a test run. Labour have made it easier to attack from the left, hence Labour's candidate trying to position himself where Labour was a year ago rather than join the policy bonfire.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Southend is one of the southern towns and cities where Labour is surging

I was not aware that this was a thing -- what's the deal?

There are quite a few places in urban southern England with fairly average demographics where Labour have really underperformed since the 80s onwards. Just as the Conservatives have benefitted from depolarisation in the #RedWall, Labour can do so in these places as well. There’s also some that would be trending Labour in absence of other political change, as they become more popular with younger commuters and similar things.

I don't think that really applies to Southend, where Labour has underperformed since there has been a Labour Party. Labour historically did badly in seaside towns until they broke through in 1997, but this didn't happen in Southend, mostly because the boundaries split Labour strength in the city centre between the two constituencies. The closest we've ever come to winning a seat in the city was in a 1980 by-election at the height of Thatcher's unpopularity.

Labour success in recent years seems mostly to be a consequence of it now behaving less as a seaside town and more as a peripheral urban centre to London.

[MaxQue]

Southend is one of the southern towns and cities where Labour is surging

I was not aware that this was a thing -- what's the deal?

There are quite a few places in urban southern England with fairly average demographics where Labour have really underperformed since the 80s onwards. Just as the Conservatives have benefitted from depolarisation in the #RedWall, Labour can do so in these places as well. There’s also some that would be trending Labour in absence of other political change, as they become more popular with younger commuters and similar things.

I don't think that really applies to Southend, where Labour has underperformed since there has been a Labour Party. Labour historically did badly in seaside towns until they broke through in 1997, but this didn't happen in Southend, mostly because the boundaries split Labour strength in the city centre between the two constituencies. The closest we've ever come to winning a seat in the city was in a 1980 by-election at the height of Thatcher's unpopularity.

Labour success in recent years seems mostly to be a consequence of it now behaving less as a seaside town and more as a peripheral urban centre to London.

Through, seaside towns seems to be moving. Brighton, Portsmouth (on the Westminster level), Bournemouth, Poole and, of course, Worthing.

[adma]

Southend is one of the southern towns and cities where Labour is surging

I was not aware that this was a thing -- what's the deal?

There are quite a few places in urban southern England with fairly average demographics where Labour have really underperformed since the 80s onwards. Just as the Conservatives have benefitted from depolarisation in the #RedWall, Labour can do so in these places as well. There’s also some that would be trending Labour in absence of other political change, as they become more popular with younger commuters and similar things.

I don't think that really applies to Southend, where Labour has underperformed since there has been a Labour Party. Labour historically did badly in seaside towns until they broke through in 1997, but this didn't happen in Southend, mostly because the boundaries split Labour strength in the city centre between the two constituencies. The closest we've ever come to winning a seat in the city was in a 1980 by-election at the height of Thatcher's unpopularity.

Labour success in recent years seems mostly to be a consequence of it now behaving less as a seaside town and more as a peripheral urban centre to London.

Through, seaside towns seems to be moving. Brighton, Portsmouth (on the Westminster level), Bournemouth, Poole and, of course, Worthing.

And don't forget Blackpool in the North--until Blair, mostly solidly Tory.

[Coldstream]

Southend is one of the southern towns and cities where Labour is surging

I was not aware that this was a thing -- what's the deal?

There are quite a few places in urban southern England with fairly average demographics where Labour have really underperformed since the 80s onwards. Just as the Conservatives have benefitted from depolarisation in the #RedWall, Labour can do so in these places as well. There’s also some that would be trending Labour in absence of other political change, as they become more popular with younger commuters and similar things.

I don't think that really applies to Southend, where Labour has underperformed since there has been a Labour Party. Labour historically did badly in seaside towns until they broke through in 1997, but this didn't happen in Southend, mostly because the boundaries split Labour strength in the city centre between the two constituencies. The closest we've ever come to winning a seat in the city was in a 1980 by-election at the height of Thatcher's unpopularity.

Labour success in recent years seems mostly to be a consequence of it now behaving less as a seaside town and more as a peripheral urban centre to London.

Through, seaside towns seems to be moving. Brighton, Portsmouth (on the Westminster level), Bournemouth, Poole and, of course, Worthing.

Weston super mare too, Labour won the vote there in the 2023 council elections.

I also do think Poole has the potential to be one of our shock gains if we do win a landslide. It’s actually got a councillor (maybe 2?) there now.

[CumbrianLefty]

W-s-M had a massive Tory majority at the most recent GE, but it does come across as one of those places where that could have been a "last hurrah" for them.

And it does of course have a fairly recent precedent for not voting Tory.

[Coldstream]

W-s-M had a massive Tory majority at the most recent GE, but it does come across as one of those places where that could have been a "last hurrah" for them.

And it does of course have a fairly recent precedent for not voting Tory.

Boundary review changes it a lot, removes all the rural part to Wells & Mendip Hills. It’s majority on current boundaries probably wouldn’t be that different from those in other Labour target seats in the SW like PMV or North Swindon.

[Oryxslayer]

It is finally confirmed that there will be a by-election in Mid Bedfordshire.

[Wiswylfen]

Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.

ironically with the cultural Catholics/gene pool Catholics of Irish descent voting for the Scottish nationalists

Other way round: Catholics tended to be Labour, Protestants tended to be SNP.

[Lord Halifax]

Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.

ironically with the cultural Catholics/gene pool Catholics of Irish descent voting for the Scottish nationalists

Other way round: Catholics tended to be Labour, Protestants tended to be SNP.

that depends on when we're talking about. Alex Salmond did a lot of outreach to Catholics to poach them from Labour and it paid off. Catholics disproportionally voted Yes in the referendum and have supported the SNP post-referendum.

[Blair]

It is finally confirmed that there will be a by-election in Mid Bedfordshire.

The first by election since Eastleigh where three different parties have a good chance…

[Logical]

One of the funniest, pettiest resignation letter I've ever read.

[MABA 2020]

One of the funniest, pettiest resignation letter I've ever read.

Her letter reaches Truss levels of delusion

[YL]

It is finally confirmed that there will be a by-election in Mid Bedfordshire.

The first by election since Eastleigh where three different parties have a good chance…

Yes, it's an interesting one and feels quite hard to predict.

If it remains a three horse race then the Tories need to be on at least 30% or thereabouts, which is about where they've been in several recent by-elections in seats they've been defending, but unless they get a bit more than that they would need a very even split of the opposition vote between Labour and the Lib Dems.  If they got 38%, which is what they got in Tiverton & Honiton, then they'd have a decent chance.

If the declared Independent candidate who scored quite well in that strange poll a few weeks back does turn out to be competitive, then suddenly it's a four horse race and the winning share could be very low.  I'm not sure how much that scenario helps the Tories, though: I suspect he takes votes from people who aren't very satisfied with the Tory party but don't want to vote Labour or Lib Dem.

Current best odds for each party, BTW, are Lib Dems 7/4 on, Lab 4/1 against, Con 9/2 against.  (But remember Chesham & Amersham, Batley & Spen and Uxbridge & South Ruislip.)  If I were a betting man I think that I might take those odds on Labour.

[CumbrianLefty]

Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.

ironically with the cultural Catholics/gene pool Catholics of Irish descent voting for the Scottish nationalists

Other way round: Catholics tended to be Labour, Protestants tended to be SNP.

that depends on when we're talking about. Alex Salmond did a lot of outreach to Catholics to poach them from Labour and it paid off. Catholics disproportionally voted Yes in the referendum and have supported the SNP post-referendum.

Yes but that is a fairly new development and its still too soon to say if it is a permanent one. Until the 2015 deluge, Scottish Catholics had tended to vote Labour for around a century.

Historically the SNP was known by some wags as the "Scottish Protestant Party" - and as recently as the infamous Monklands East byelection in 1994 the sectarian pattern in support was starkly obvious.

[Lord Halifax]

Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.

ironically with the cultural Catholics/gene pool Catholics of Irish descent voting for the Scottish nationalists

Other way round: Catholics tended to be Labour, Protestants tended to be SNP.

that depends on when we're talking about. Alex Salmond did a lot of outreach to Catholics to poach them from Labour and it paid off. Catholics disproportionally voted Yes in the referendum and have supported the SNP post-referendum.

Yes but that is a fairly new development and its still too soon to say if it is a permanent one. Until the 2015 deluge, Scottish Catholics had tended to vote Labour for around a century.

Historically the SNP was known by some wags as the "Scottish Protestant Party" - and as recently as the infamous Monklands East byelection in 1994 the sectarian pattern in support was starkly obvious.

I'm well aware of that (as I thought I had made clear), but the new pattern is a lot more interesting.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, its maybe interesting if it is maintained - and the coming GE could tell us a bit about that.

("SNP wins most Catholics when it is winning almost everywhere" arguably isn't that earth shattering - sorry if this appears a little cynical)