UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[JimJamUK]

If the conversation unironically becomes "The problem with Labour is although they appeal in the northern heartlands they're clearly struggling in metro London" that would be pretty hilarious denouement to Red Wall discours.

The funny thing is, that WAS the narrative quite a lot of the time from the 1980s onwards. Under Thatcher Labour was too focused on deindustrialisation and not enough on the aspirational working class in outer London and surrounds. In 2015 especially there was talk about Labour retreating to its core working class vote while the gentrifying parts of London were trending Conservative.

In relative terms, it is currently undoubtably true that Labour IS ‘struggling’ in metropolitan London. They’re getting relatively low swings among remainers, young people, ethnic minorities etc, in part because of their chosen strategy, in part because they’re losing a few to the Greens, but also because there’s simply not that many Conservative voters in these demographics left to switch.

[Oryxslayer]

The other genre of safe (?) tory seats in this election may be Scotland: assuming the SNP has not recovered they may be too wounded to regain the borders seats/moray.

The fact both the SNP and Tories have taken a big hit makes it difficult to tell what will happen in their Scottish marginals. In both cases they’re largely losing to Labour but it will presumably be weaker in these seats (‘vote Labour, get the Tories’ or ‘we are the clear unionist choice here’). It really depends whose lost votes are more salvageable and whether there’s much direct switching between the Tories and SNP in places where there has obviously been a lot in the past.

The Tories weirdly enough could gain seats in Scotland,  but we really won't know what's going on there until YouGov does a MRP or we get detailed subregional data at the minimum.  Everything depends on how much the core unionist vote of the past 7 years now sees itself as one camp under different banners.  The public information is there for unionist voters to easily know whose which party can win which seats. Though said info is also readily available for Nationalists, and their behavior may vary by opponent as well. We really just don't know till it's election time.

[JimJamUK]

The Sun are claiming that the Tories are on only 11% in Mid Bedfordshire. Digging into the article it’s actually 11% of people “definitely plan to vote Tory”, but that’s presumably still pretty abysmal.

[Joe Republic]

It's always worth bearing in mind that there may be a bit of expectation management going on in these sort of quotes, but a Guardian article gives Tory sources' views on each by-election a paragraph each.  Somerton & Frome is described as a "write-off", and Selby & Ainsty "tough", but they're a bit happier about Uxbridge & South Ruislip, although you get the impression that they don't actually expect to hold it.  That view of the latter two is reasonably consistent with the polls there, I suppose.

What polls have there actually been other than the two (?) that have been posted here?  One of which was that highly sketchy Lord Ashcroft one in Uxbridge & SR.

[YL]

It's always worth bearing in mind that there may be a bit of expectation management going on in these sort of quotes, but a Guardian article gives Tory sources' views on each by-election a paragraph each.  Somerton & Frome is described as a "write-off", and Selby & Ainsty "tough", but they're a bit happier about Uxbridge & South Ruislip, although you get the impression that they don't actually expect to hold it.  That view of the latter two is reasonably consistent with the polls there, I suppose.

What polls have there actually been other than the two (?) that have been posted here?  One of which was that highly sketchy Lord Ashcroft one in Uxbridge & SR.

I just meant the two JL Partners ones (one in each of S & A and U & SR); I think the Ashcroft one was junk (and assumed Johnson as candidate, anyway).

As for the alleged Tory internal in Mid Beds, it's hard to say much without knowing more about what their categories are.  E.g. were there people who were "probably" going to vote for them?

[Coldstream]

Spent some more time on the doors in Uxbridge, ULEZ is coming up a lot - the Tory campaign is definitely working on feelings of anger & resentment that the people feel towards Sadiq Khan. Not convinced it’ll be enough, we seem to be ahead, but it’s definitely not a landslide homecoming like Wakefield.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If there’s a decently smaller swing in Uxbridge I can already see a potential Tory tabloids’ spin that it’s proof of Boris’s enduring popularity. Seems an appropriate level of tripe that qualifies for by-election “analysis”.

[Coldstream]

If there’s a decently smaller swing in Uxbridge I can already see a potential Tory tabloids’ spin that it’s proof of Boris’s enduring popularity. Seems an appropriate level of tripe that qualifies for by-election “analysis”.

I’ve been genuinely surprised how little his name has come up, he’s definitely seen in the past tense already.

[CumbrianLefty]

Spent some more time on the doors in Uxbridge, ULEZ is coming up a lot - the Tory campaign is definitely working on feelings of anger & resentment that the people feel towards Sadiq Khan. Not convinced it’ll be enough, we seem to be ahead, but it’s definitely not a landslide homecoming like Wakefield.

What, all of them?

[Coldstream]

Spent some more time on the doors in Uxbridge, ULEZ is coming up a lot - the Tory campaign is definitely working on feelings of anger & resentment that the people feel towards Sadiq Khan. Not convinced it’ll be enough, we seem to be ahead, but it’s definitely not a landslide homecoming like Wakefield.

What, all of them?

Certainly felt like it - it’s hardly uncommon for far flung suburbs to dislike the citywide leadership. Bristol is much the same towards Marvin Rees. A cynic might say it’s for similar reasons, although I do think a white Labour mayor would face the same problems with places like Uxbridge.

[DL]

If there’s a decently smaller swing in Uxbridge I can already see a potential Tory tabloids’ spin that it’s proof of Boris’s enduring popularity. Seems an appropriate level of tripe that qualifies for by-election “analysis”.

That makes no sense at all. If Boris were still so personally popular then you would expect Tory support in Uxbridge to collapse even more with him no longer on the ballot and replaced by a generic Tory candidate. It’s not as if Boris is out campaigning in the by election and asking people to vote Tory to show their support for him. If anything a Tory vote now in Uxbridge is a vote for Sunak..

[YL]

If there’s a decently smaller swing in Uxbridge I can already see a potential Tory tabloids’ spin that it’s proof of Boris’s enduring popularity. Seems an appropriate level of tripe that qualifies for by-election “analysis”.

That makes no sense at all. If Boris were still so personally popular then you would expect Tory support in Uxbridge to collapse even more with him no longer on the ballot and replaced by a generic Tory candidate. It’s not as if Boris is out campaigning in the by election and asking people to vote Tory to show their support for him. If anything a Tory vote now in Uxbridge is a vote for Sunak..

He was talking about Tory tabloids’ spin, not things which make sense.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If there’s a decently smaller swing in Uxbridge I can already see a potential Tory tabloids’ spin that it’s proof of Boris’s enduring popularity. Seems an appropriate level of tripe that qualifies for by-election “analysis”.

That makes no sense at all. If Boris were still so personally popular then you would expect Tory support in Uxbridge to collapse even more with him no longer on the ballot and replaced by a generic Tory candidate. It’s not as if Boris is out campaigning in the by election and asking people to vote Tory to show their support for him. If anything a Tory vote now in Uxbridge is a vote for Sunak..

He was talking about Tory tabloids’ spin, not things which make sense.

Absolutely! Though nowadays the worst spin seems to be from the Torygraph rather than an actual tabloid which is rather pathetic.

[Blair]

Any predictions with less than a week?

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Any predictions with less than a week?

Labour win after a recount in Uxbridge

Labour win by several thousand in Selby

The Lib Dems win by a five figure majority in Somerton

[YL]

Any predictions with less than a week?

If Selby & Ainsty isn't a Labour gain then they've messed up their expectation management quite badly.  Somerton & Frome is similar, but for the Lib Dems.

I think Labour will win Uxbridge & South Ruislip as well, but the vibes on that one aren't quite as clear cut.  It does look like it is going to swing substantially less than Selby & Ainsty.

[CumbrianLefty]

The general vibe for Labour in Selby is almost "we're a bit worried by how well it is going" - it is surely not an accident that I am continually getting "its neck and neck" emails from the party - if they really *did* think it was neck and neck, they would be describing it as "competitive" or similar.

(it helps that, despite some initial cynicism about him, the candidate does seem quite impressive)

A lot of media chatter and briefing about Uxbridge, but most Labour people actually on the ground do seem cautiously optimistic. But yes, ULEZ does at least make it likely the Tory vote won't collapse.

[Blair]

The general vibe for Labour in Selby is almost "we're a bit worried by how well it is going" - it is surely not an accident that I am continually getting "its neck and neck" emails from the party - if they really *did* think it was neck and neck, they would be describing it as "competitive" or similar.

(it helps that, despite some initial cynicism about him, the candidate does seem quite impressive)

A lot of media chatter and briefing about Uxbridge, but most Labour people actually on the ground do seem cautiously optimistic. But yes, ULEZ does at least make it likely the Tory vote won't collapse.

ULEZ is fascinating- it’s such an emotive and obvious issue meaning so many people mention it but it’s equally hard to know whether they were going to vote Labour anyway. There was a council by election in Heston where it was suspected to have tanked the labour vote by around 20% but the Lib Dems rather than the Tories ended up surging.

It’s hard to tell when it comes in whether it will suddenly get a lot worse or if people will adjust- I can’t think that many people own a diesel car in London but perhaps I’m wrong. A secondhand ULEZ compliant car isn’t too expensive…

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

A look at the television schedules suggests that the BBC are actually bothering with a by-election results special (quite a rare thing for them nowadays) next week. Starts at five past midnight.

[CumbrianLefty]

If the Tories lose all three seats (and that is still very much an if at this stage) it will be the first time a sitting government has lost 3 in one day since March 1968.

[Blair]

I really wonder why they aren’t panicking more about Selby- this is not a seat that they should be losing to Labour and it would suggest the bottom of their vote has fallen out.

[CumbrianLefty]

They might be doing that more if Uxbridge wasn't on the same day - not only would a hold or even a less than crushing defeat deflect somewhat from what would be a bad reverse in Selby (and indeed the likely walloping in Somerset) but the fact it is the outskirts of the capital makes it even easier for them to sell such a narrative to the London based media.

Though if they do lose all three, I still doubt if that will matter much.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the last time a constituency with Selby & Ainsty's borders would have gone Labour? 1997?

[YL]

What is the last time a constituency with Selby & Ainsty's borders would have gone Labour? 1997?

It's not obvious.  It was Tory in 2005 by about 4.3 percentage points according to the "official" notional results, and if you extrapolate the swings in the then Selby back you get it being Tory by a whisker in 2001 and Labour by a slightly larger whisker in 1997.  But I suspect that those 2005 notionals over-estimated the Lib Dems and under-estimated Labour in the part of the old Selby which went into York Outer, and hence did the reverse in the bit which stayed with Selby.  (Part of the reason I suspect that is that the 2010 vote share changes in Selby & Ainsty become less extreme if you assume that.)  If that's right, then it would tend to suggest that S & A was actually carried by the Tories in 1997.

If not 1997, then possibly 1945, when Barkston Ash was very close, but I haven't attempted to analyse the difference between the two constituencies.  Otherwise the answer may be "never".

[Oryxslayer]

What is the last time a constituency with Selby & Ainsty's borders would have gone Labour? 1997?

I mean Labour did win the Selby constituency in 97 and hold it in marginal contests until 2010. But of course there is a big asterisk there because the old seat did not go northwest towards Harrogate, it went north up to the borders of York Central since York Outer did not yet exist. Today of course that is a much more Labour favored alignment,  but I wouldn't be surprised if someone with better local knowledge said the York suburbs were once just as conservative as the rural turf. If not, Labour probably wouldn't have won the present alignment. 


Labour maintained a strong presence inside Selby town locally, and when the unitary authority shook things up, Selby was one of two areas Labour did well in. The other important thing is the seat is nationally getting better for Labour in 2024, losing Deep Blue Yorkshire voters and gaining wards in the SW greater Leeds area where things are less than overwhelmingly conservative.