UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Coldstream]

Some in the media now talking up Labour's campaign in Uxbridge being hampered by ULEZ.

One remains slightly sceptical, in the absence of any hard evidence.

It came up on the doors, and the response is definitely weaker than Wakefield - but the antipathy to the Tory party *seemed* to me to be far greater.

[Blair]

It’s quite funny coverage wise as USR actually was a seat I could have seen labour still fail to win even if they won a relatively healthy majority- I think a lot of people incorrectly lump it in with the other Conservative held seats in the North London suburbs.

It’s interesting how little coverage Selby has gotten and the SW one even less- I can’t even recall the name!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is structurally quite a low-swinging constituency, as were the various Uxbridge seats that preceded it.

[Blair]

It is structurally quite a low-swinging constituency, as were the various Uxbridge seats that preceded it.

Tamworth on the other hand…

This Parliament surely has to have had the most by elections for errrrrr personal reasons hasn’t it?

[Torrain]

8 week suspension for Pincher - above what was being briefed yesterday. Guess the only question now is whether he resigns or waits to be recalled.

[YL]

The Yorkshire Post has some details of a poll of Selby & Ainsty carried out by JL Partners for 38 Degrees.  The headline is that Labour are 12 points ahead, on 41% to the Tories' 29%.  As that only comes to 70% and I can't see the other candidates getting 30% between them, I suspect that that is not excluding (or re-allocating) undecideds.

Usual constituency poll pinch of salt needed, I suppose, and obviously we don't have the full data yet anyway.

[Blair]

They ofc have issues but I seem to recall both Wakefield and Batley and Spen having ones that were broadly correct about the direction of travel.

I think a lot of Conservatives have forgotten how far the bottom can fall out at by elections during an economic crisis when you’re trailing by 20% nationally- just very hard for for them to motivate their people to vote.

[YL]

They ofc have issues but I seem to recall both Wakefield and Batley and Spen having ones that were broadly correct about the direction of travel.

Wakefield was polled twice, once by Survation and once by JL Partners.  The JL Partners poll did well on the Labour and Tory shares but over-estimated the Lib Dems and Greens and under-estimated other candidates (the Independent and the Yorkshire Party, mainly).  The Survation poll over-estimated Labour and, to a lesser extent, the Tories, and again under-estimated other candidates.

Batley & Spen was polled once, by Survation.  This was not close to the final result: it seriously over-estimated the Tories and did not pick up the scale of George Galloway's vote.  Whether it had a bad sample or whether things changed between the poll and the by-election is of course unknown.

Hartlepool was polled twice, both times by Survation.  The second poll was reasonably accurate, though somehow picked up a 6% vote for former Labour MP Thelma Walker as a Northern Independence Party aligned Independent, which is way more than what she actually got.  Wikipedia also records a Focaldata "poll" showing Labour ahead, but I think that was from an MRP, not an actual poll of Hartlepool.

The other by-elections this Parliament haven't had public polls.

[YL]

I was wrong about undecideds; they really do have others on 30%.

Mather (Lab) 41%
Holmes (Con) 29%
Kent (Reform UK) 8%
Walker (Lib Dem) 6%
Warneken (Green) 6%
Jordan (Yorkshire Party) 4%
Wilson-Kerr (Ind) 2%
Gray (Ind), Phoenix (Heritage), Stanton (OMRLP), Waterston (SDP) each 1%
Palmer (Ind), Wellock (Climate) each 0%

[YL]

There's also been a questionable poll, seemingly carried out by Labour, of Mid Bedfordshire.

Lab - 28%
Con - 24%
Ind (Dorries?) - 19%
LDs - 15%

This was mentioned on the previous page, and the Ind is Gareth Mackey, a prominent (at least in Flitwick) Central Bedfordshire councillor.  The poll was carried out by Opinium for the Labour Party, and so should be regarded as a Labour internal.

[YL]

There's also a JL Partners poll of Uxbridge & South Ruislip, with Labour 8% ahead (Lab 41, Con 33).

Full figures:

Beales (Lab) 41%
Tuckwell (Con) 33%
Baquiche (Lib Dem) 6%
Fox (Reclaim) 5%
Green (Green) 4%
Hamilton "Anti Ulez" (Ind) 4%
Bell (Ind), Binface (Binface), Corbyn (Let London Live), Hewison (Rejoin), Hope (OMRLP), Jane (UKIP) each 1%
Gardner (SDP), Gemmell (Climate), Joseph (Ind), Ntefon (CPA), Phaure (Ind) each 0%

[Blair]

Oh yes sorry it was HP that was marginally correct not B&S.

I remember someone joked that we could see a bigger majority in Selby and I wouldn’t be shocked if the USR poll is roughly correct- ironic ofc that the rights vote is split to the extend they could win if it wasn’t but equally I think a good rule from all reason by elections is expect the smaller parties to do worse than polling/modelling does.

The annoying thing is that USR result would see a lot of spin about how Labor are struggling in outer London even if the Tories lose the other two; they have a rather bad (for them!) habit of pretending awful election results are actually ok.

[Blair]

If they lose Tamworth and Bedfordshire they’ve basically lost virtually every different type of seat they hold- marginal red wall (Wakefield), safe middle England seat (Amersham), rural safe seat (Shropshire), old south west liberal seats (Tiverton + Frome) and outer outer London seats (Uxbridge)

At this rate the only saving grace will be a few seats in the Black Country and the Tees Valley and even those wouldn’t be nailed on.

On an aside the Conservatives are lucky there majority is quite high; we’re getting to a stage where previous governments lost their majority.

[CumbrianLefty]

On an aside the Conservatives are lucky there majority is quite high; we’re getting to a stage where previous governments lost their majority.

This parliament is comparable to 1966-70 in some respects wrt by-elections.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The annoying thing is that USR result would see a lot of spin about how Labor are struggling in outer London even if the Tories lose the other two; they have a rather bad (for them!) habit of pretending awful election results are actually ok.

If the conversation unironically becomes "The problem with Labour is although they appeal in the northern heartlands they're clearly struggling in metro London" that would be pretty hilarious denouement to Red Wall discours.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At this rate the only saving grace will be a few seats in the Black Country and the Tees Valley and even those wouldn’t be nailed on.

Nope. I've done some number crunching for the local results transposed to the new constituencies in the Black Country. And. Er. Well.

[Joe Republic]

So that I'm following along correctly, if the Tories lose all three seats, it'll be Labour winning U&SR and S&A, while the Lib Dems take S&F?

[YL]

So that I'm following along correctly, if the Tories lose all three seats, it'll be Labour winning U&SR and S&A, while the Lib Dems take S&F?

Yes.

[Torrain]

So that I'm following along correctly, if the Tories lose all three seats, it'll be Labour winning U&SR and S&A, while the Lib Dems take S&F?

Aye - that's the conventional wisdom - and where the parties are targeting their resources.

In terms of the prospective by-elections:

• Rutherglen and Hamilton South is a straight SNP-Labour race
• Tamworth is a straight-up Labour-Tory race.
• Mid Beds is more complicated - Labour and the Lib Dems are both making noise about contesting it, and have each sent canvassers.

Edit: If Tamworth and Mid Beds do happen, and coincide - I think there's fair chance of Labour and the Lib Dems divvying them up, one each, like with Tiverton and Wakefield last year.

[YL]

At this rate the only saving grace will be a few seats in the Black Country and the Tees Valley and even those wouldn’t be nailed on.

Nope. I've done some number crunching for the local results transposed to the new constituencies in the Black Country. And. Er. Well.

I guess it is debatable whether it counts as Black Country (not being from the area, I tend to use the four borough definition of that term, but I know local opinions vary) but what about Aldridge-Brownhills?

I think South Holland & the Deepings is the ultimate in safe Tory seats right now.

[YL]

It's always worth bearing in mind that there may be a bit of expectation management going on in these sort of quotes, but a Guardian article gives Tory sources' views on each by-election a paragraph each.  Somerton & Frome is described as a "write-off", and Selby & Ainsty "tough", but they're a bit happier about Uxbridge & South Ruislip, although you get the impression that they don't actually expect to hold it.  That view of the latter two is reasonably consistent with the polls there, I suppose.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The other genre of safe (?) tory seats in this election may be Scotland: assuming the SNP has not recovered they may be too wounded to regain the borders seats/moray.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

The other genre of safe (?) tory seats in this election may be Scotland: assuming the SNP has not recovered they may be too wounded to regain the borders seats/moray.

One thing that hasn't been commented on much regarding the scandals in Scotland is that Labour and the unionist parties could use it to push the "Time for a Change" message. The Profumo scandal of 1963, the Tory scandals of the 1990s and the expenses' scandal of 2009 (all, of course, occurring towards the end of long-running governments - scandals often being the sign of a declining government) at least provided some help in the opposition parties doing this. Of course this not being a Holyrood election complicates matters somewhat, but that may actually help them further (as in "don't worry, the Scottish government won't change, you can just send them a message").

[JimJamUK]

The other genre of safe (?) tory seats in this election may be Scotland: assuming the SNP has not recovered they may be too wounded to regain the borders seats/moray.

The fact both the SNP and Tories have taken a big hit makes it difficult to tell what will happen in their Scottish marginals. In both cases they’re largely losing to Labour but it will presumably be weaker in these seats (‘vote Labour, get the Tories’ or ‘we are the clear unionist choice here’). It really depends whose lost votes are more salvageable and whether there’s much direct switching between the Tories and SNP in places where there has obviously been a lot in the past.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think there's fair chance of Labour and the Lib Dems divvying them up, one each, like with Tiverton and Wakefield last year

At present there seems to be real scrap over Mid Beds, which the recent poll (for all that it may not be *totally* reliable) has if anything only intensified. Though it should perhaps be recalled that initially N Shropshire was not dissimilar, until it became clear to all what was actually going on.