UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

Kate Green is now Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, so Stretford & Urmston is officially vacant and the by-election can be on 15 December as suggested.

We could face a rather high number of by elections this term- especially considering how few are from ill health or death.

About 4 or 5 per year seems to be typical going back some time, though it was less in the Noughties (only 6 in the 2001 Parliament), but yes the proportion of them which are due to deaths is lower than in the past.  The rate was noticeably higher before 1979, but a lot were caused by deaths, and some by succeeding to a hereditary peerage, which of course can't cause a by-election any more.

The 1983 Parliament had 31 by-elections, but 15 of those were caused by the mass Unionist resignation in protest at the Anglo-Irish Agreement.  If I've counted correctly from the list on Wikipedia, the 1959 Parliament had 62!  (Two of them in Bristol South East, for well-known reasons.)

[Хahar 🤔]

Kate Green is now Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, so Stretford & Urmston is officially vacant and the by-election can be on 15 December as suggested.

We could face a rather high number of by elections this term- especially considering how few are from ill health or death.

About 4 or 5 per year seems to be typical going back some time, though it was less in the Noughties (only 6 in the 2001 Parliament), but yes the proportion of them which are due to deaths is lower than in the past.  The rate was noticeably higher before 1979, but a lot were caused by deaths, and some by succeeding to a hereditary peerage, which of course can't cause a by-election any more.

The 1983 Parliament had 31 by-elections, but 15 of those were caused by the mass Unionist resignation in protest at the Anglo-Irish Agreement.  If I've counted correctly from the list on Wikipedia, the 1959 Parliament had 62!  (Two of them in Bristol South East, for well-known reasons.)

Reading about the politics of the early '20s, it's shocking how many by-elections there used to be. By year:

1919: 20
1920: 24
1921: 37
1922: 27

In total there were 107 by-elections to the House of Commons elected in 1918. 18 were ministerial by-elections, which were abolished soon after, but that still leaves 89. That's so many!

[CumbrianLefty]

It is remarkable how few byelections there were in the 2001-05 parliament especially, and that shows amongst other things the effect of having such a big turnover of MPs in 1997.

[Coldstream]

It is remarkable how few byelections there were in the 2001-05 parliament especially, and that shows amongst other things the effect of having such a big turnover of MPs in 1997.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think there’s been a by-election in a Tory seat where the MP died of natural causes since 1997 - in part due to this massive turnover reducing the average age.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is remarkable how few byelections there were in the 2001-05 parliament especially, and that shows amongst other things the effect of having such a big turnover of MPs in 1997.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think there’s been a by-election in a Tory seat where the MP died of natural causes since 1997 - in part due to this massive turnover reducing the average age.

James Brokenshire doesn't qualify?

Or indeed Eric Forth back in the 2005-10 parliament.

EDIT: there was also Alan Clark and (just!) Julian Shersby in the first Blair term.

[Coldstream]

It is remarkable how few byelections there were in the 2001-05 parliament especially, and that shows amongst other things the effect of having such a big turnover of MPs in 1997.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think there’s been a by-election in a Tory seat where the MP died of natural causes since 1997 - in part due to this massive turnover reducing the average age.

James Brokenshire doesn't qualify?

Or indeed Eric Forth back in the 2005-10 parliament.

EDIT: there was also Alan Clark and (just!) Julian Shersby in the first Blair term.

I’d forgotten Brokenshire! I think I realised this back in 2020 - but I admit I was unfamiliar with Forth & Shersby. There have certainly been fewer than on the Labour side (Paul Flynn, Gerald Kaufman, Jack Dromey just off the top of my head).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Cheryl Gillan, as well.

[Torrain]

Apparently (via the Times) Rosie Cooper hasn't resigned yet because she's still haggling for some sort of severance, including trying to angle for a peerage.

Race is now expected by party insiders to be delayed until January.

[CumbrianLefty]

Claimed by her supporters she wants a peerage because of fears her security protection (after the far right plot to kill her a few years ago) will be withdrawn if she leaves parliament.

(though this has apparently been officially denied)

[YL]

Kate Green is now Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, so Stretford & Urmston is officially vacant and the by-election can be on 15 December as suggested.

And indeed it will be.  Deadline for nominations is 4pm on Tuesday 22nd.

A contender for the most boring by-election of this Parliament?

[Blair]

Didn’t a Labour MP die after getting ill at some sort of banquet?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don’t a Labour MP die after getting ill at some sort of banquet?

Jim Dobbin, yes. It was a Council of Europe do in Poland and the guests had a shot of vodka between each course...

[oldtimer]

Kate Green is now Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, so Stretford & Urmston is officially vacant and the by-election can be on 15 December as suggested.

And indeed it will be.  Deadline for nominations is 4pm on Tuesday 22nd.

A contender for the most boring by-election of this Parliament?

I think all by-elections of that Parliament will be boring.

Can you consider any by-election outside of Scotland not been won by Labour or the LD ?

[CumbrianLefty]

Kate Green is now Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, so Stretford & Urmston is officially vacant and the by-election can be on 15 December as suggested.

And indeed it will be.  Deadline for nominations is 4pm on Tuesday 22nd.

A contender for the most boring by-election of this Parliament?

I think all by-elections of that Parliament will be boring.

Can you consider any by-election outside of Scotland not been won by Labour or the LD ?

Gavin Williamson's seat is one that springs to mind rather.

Anyway knowing the likely outcome of a byelection does not make it dull, by any means. In fact there are few if any contests that were *totally* without interest, though certain ones have come close.

(Knowsley South in 1990 being a notable example in my more formative years)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Don’t a Labour MP die after getting ill at some sort of banquet?

Jim Dobbin, yes. It was a Council of Europe do in Poland and the guests had a shot of vodka between each course...

Was in a wedding in Poland last month where a similar thing happened between every speech... i woke up in the hotel bathtub without my shoes, phone or glasses. Apparently it could have gone worse I guess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don’t a Labour MP die after getting ill at some sort of banquet?

Jim Dobbin, yes. It was a Council of Europe do in Poland and the guests had a shot of vodka between each course...

Was in a wedding in Poland last month where a similar thing happened between every speech... i woke up in the hotel bathtub without my shoes, phone or glasses. Apparently it could have gone worse I guess.

At the inquest his wife said that, up until the point where he felt ill and went to bed, he had been having the perfect day. I suppose there are worse ways to sign off forever.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Don’t a Labour MP die after getting ill at some sort of banquet?

Jim Dobbin, yes. It was a Council of Europe do in Poland and the guests had a shot of vodka between each course...

Was in a wedding in Poland last month where a similar thing happened between every speech... i woke up in the hotel bathtub without my shoes, phone or glasses. Apparently it could have gone worse I guess.

At the inquest his wife said that, up until the point where he felt ill and went to bed, he had been having the perfect day. I suppose there are worse ways to sign off forever.

Reminds me of this anecdote about the infamous Lunch with the Financial Times interviews:

The menus were not printed until 2003, so we cannot be sure of the all-time record for the most expensive lunch. It may have been achieved when Spivey met the 79-year-old poet Gavin Ewart at the Café Royal in October 1995. The exact cost is lost somewhere in the bowels of the FT accounts department. But the bill was somewhat overshadowed by the aftermath.

The main item on the agenda was alcohol, not food. Ewart began with several negronis (gin, vermouth, Campari), which is not an amateur’s drink, and carried on from there. “We departed the Café Royal in a moderately straight line,” Spivey said in the article. He put Ewart on a bus home then lurched off himself. The following day he received a call from Mrs Ewart.

“There are two things you need to know,” she said. “The first is that Gavin came home yesterday happier than I have seen him in a long time. The second – and you are not to feel bad about this – is that he died this morning.”

[YL]

Nine candidates for Stretford & Urmston:

Emily Carter-Kandola (Con)
Anna Fryer (Lib Dem)
Hazel Gibb (Independent)
Christina Glancy (Freedom Alliance)
Dan Jerrome (Green)
Jim Newell (Rejoin EU)
Paul Swansborough (Reform UK)
Andrew Western (Lab)
Julien Yvon (SDP)

[Blair]

Think Chester might be the least covered Labour by election in recent years… no beef over the selection, no handwringing about a certain demographic, no worries about a protest vote and all just very calm.

[JimJamUK]

Think Chester might be the least covered Labour by election in recent years… no beef over the selection, no handwringing about a certain demographic, no worries about a protest vote and all just very calm.

Are you suggesting Rejoin EU might not pull off a shock gain?

[YL]

Think Chester might be the least covered Labour by election in recent years… no beef over the selection, no handwringing about a certain demographic, no worries about a protest vote and all just very calm.

I think Stretford & Urmston might be even quieter.  There wasn't even a Labour selection there, the candidate having been selected some months ago.

I did wonder whether either might be a chance for the Green Party to put in a respectable challenge in a parliamentary by-election, but I haven't seen any evidence yet.

[Blair]

Think Chester might be the least covered Labour by election in recent years… no beef over the selection, no handwringing about a certain demographic, no worries about a protest vote and all just very calm.

I think Stretford & Urmston might be even quieter.  There wasn't even a Labour selection there, the candidate having been selected some months ago.

I did wonder whether either might be a chance for the Green Party to put in a respectable challenge in a parliamentary by-election, but I haven't seen any evidence yet.

That's true; it's just slightly stranger by the fact that Chester isn't an uber-safe seat-it was only won by 93 votes in 2015, although its similar to a lot of those sort of seats that were narrow wins or misses in 2015 but which are now safe thanks to the Conservatives branding change.

[Blair]

Mutterings of a big win expected tomorrow.

I also think the local CLP have a good reputation and run a tight ship which doesn’t always matter but can help…

[Blair]

What’s the lowest the Tories could realistically come?

3rd?

[YL]

What’s the lowest the Tories could realistically come?

3rd?

Even for that someone else would have to do quite well.

In other news, West Lancashire is finally vacant: Rosie Cooper was appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds today.  So the by-election will presumably be some time in January.