UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most of those pledges are... the same pledge.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Most of those pledges are... the same pledge.

Neil Shad-Trombone

[Statilius the Epicurean]

"I will hold regular surgeries" what? Why would you pledge that? That's the bare minimum...

[afleitch]

"I will hold regular surgeries" what? Why would you pledge that? That's the bare minimum...

'11. I will be an MP.'

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.

I think that a lot of it comes down to the central counting and the candidates all being there when it’s called. It’s why we have pictures of “Elmo” and Count Binface with Boris. Then you get the Monster Raving Loony Party that runs in basically every by-election and doesn’t always come in last. That sort of thing is prime meme fodder.

[Blair]

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.

Bill Bryson said that following by-elections was in itself an eccentric quirk of the British that he never understood- they’re glorious affairs and have actually got a lot more dull. The ones in the 1980s and 1990s (and before) would have daily press conferences, packed public hall meetings and quite vicious scenes too.

[Blair]

I’d be fascinated to see how members of the farming community voted; Labour made a big outreach (Keir was the first leader to speak at the NFU conference for a decade) and there’s been a number of rows over their treatment by the Government- not helped by Boris saying ‘let the pigs die’,

[CumbrianLefty]

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.

Bill Bryson said that following by-election was in itself an eccentric quirk of the British that he never understood- they’re glorious affairs and have actually got a lot more dull. The ones in the 1980s and 1990s (and before) would have daily press conferences, packed public hall meetings and quite vicious scenes too.

And of course - EXIT POLLS!

(which weren't always terribly accurate, it has to be said)

[adma]

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.

Bill Bryson said that following by-election was in itself an eccentric quirk of the British that he never understood- they’re glorious affairs and have actually got a lot more dull. The ones in the 1980s and 1990s (and before) would have daily press conferences, packed public hall meetings and quite vicious scenes too.

And of course - EXIT POLLS!

(which weren't always terribly accurate, it has to be said)

Also, despite superficial appearances of culturally-defined Con/Lab binary, the UK electorate's got a "stealth elasticity" to it--much of that due to the enduring wild-card presence of the Lib Dems, as well as that of nationalists in Scotland/Wales and occasional UKIP/Brexit/Reform-lineage dissident-right affairs.  Whereas in the US, all you have for the most part is the Dems and the GOP, and a lot of the greater melodrama tends to be in the battles for party nomination than in the race itself (cf the NYC Mayoralty).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I’d be fascinated to see how members of the farming community voted; Labour made a big outreach (Keir was the first leader to speak at the NFU conference for a decade) and there’s been a number of rows over their treatment by the Government- not helped by Boris saying ‘let the pigs die’,

I've heard credible second-hand reports and rumours of grumbling and muttering from the farming community in North Shropshire about various issues - material pressures (many of which are Brexit-related), concerns about the government's enthusiasm for 'free trade' deals, irritation that Paterson (who was supposed to be their man) wasn't pulling his weight (which added to anger at what he was actually doing instead...), that kind of thing. The farming community in North Shropshire is dominated by dairying and is overwhelmingly comprised of landowning farmers so is ordinarily extremely Tory (we're probably taking over 90% here), but there are good reasons to believe that there was a very large slump. Probably more still voted Conservative than for the LibDem, but when what is normally an absolute pillar gets wobbly that's really, really bad...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

A lot of people in another  forum are attacking Starmer for the poor by election performance and for "Destroying Corbyns grassroot strength".

[CumbrianLefty]

A lot of people in another  forum are attacking Starmer for the poor by election performance and for "Destroying Corbyns grassroot strength".

That has been a constant meme from said quarter since yesterday morning.

How the Labour byelection results in Witney, Richmond and Sleaford back in 2016 fit with this thesis has, as yet, not been explained by them. I'm sure they will do so in good time, though

[Blair]

A lot of people in another  forum are attacking Starmer for the poor by election performance and for "Destroying Corbyns grassroot strength".

Sometimes this sort of discourse annoys me- but yesterday it didn't at all. The Government got a hiding & that's all that mattered. Would they rather Labour took say 25% of the vote & the Tories won? Of course not.

These people are not serious as just two weeks ago they were attacking Labour for increasing its vote share in Bexley because the raw vote in a by-election with 30% turnout was lower than the number of votes as in a GE with 65% turnout. 

It's a very boring & dull school of analysis which spends its whole time looking for proof that the Starmer project is a failure- I know this because people on the Labour right did it for years with Corbyn!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I’d be fascinated to see how members of the farming community voted; Labour made a big outreach (Keir was the first leader to speak at the NFU conference for a decade) and there’s been a number of rows over their treatment by the Government- not helped by Boris saying ‘let the pigs die’,

I've heard credible second-hand reports and rumours of grumbling and muttering from the farming community in North Shropshire about various issues - material pressures (many of which are Brexit-related), concerns about the government's enthusiasm for 'free trade' deals, irritation that Paterson (who was supposed to be their man) wasn't pulling his weight (which added to anger at what he was actually doing instead...), that kind of thing. The farming community in North Shropshire is dominated by dairying and is overwhelmingly comprised of landowning farmers so is ordinarily extremely Tory (we're probably taking over 90% here), but there are good reasons to believe that there was a very large slump. Probably more still voted Conservative than for the LibDem, but when what is normally an absolute pillar gets wobbly that's really, really bad...

Dairying (and pomological and viticultural) communities in the US tend to vote to the left of big cereal grain/legume agriculture communities and WAY to the left of ranching communities. Is that not the case in England?

[CumbrianLefty]

A lot of people in another  forum are attacking Starmer for the poor by election performance and for "Destroying Corbyns grassroot strength".

Sometimes this sort of discourse annoys me- but yesterday it didn't at all. The Government got a hiding & that's all that mattered. Would they rather Labour took say 25% of the vote & the Tories won? Of course not.

These people are not serious as just two weeks ago they were attacking Labour for increasing its vote share in Bexley because the raw vote in a by-election with 30% turnout was lower than the number of votes as in a GE with 65% turnout. 

It's a very boring & dull school of analysis which spends its whole time looking for proof that the Starmer project is a failure- I know this because people on the Labour right did it for years with Corbyn!

You don't say.

One true "chef's kiss" moment was discourse on Labour's results in Richmond and C&A being pretty much directly reversed depending on which side of the "forever war" you are on

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I’d be fascinated to see how members of the farming community voted; Labour made a big outreach (Keir was the first leader to speak at the NFU conference for a decade) and there’s been a number of rows over their treatment by the Government- not helped by Boris saying ‘let the pigs die’,

I've heard credible second-hand reports and rumours of grumbling and muttering from the farming community in North Shropshire about various issues - material pressures (many of which are Brexit-related), concerns about the government's enthusiasm for 'free trade' deals, irritation that Paterson (who was supposed to be their man) wasn't pulling his weight (which added to anger at what he was actually doing instead...), that kind of thing. The farming community in North Shropshire is dominated by dairying and is overwhelmingly comprised of landowning farmers so is ordinarily extremely Tory (we're probably taking over 90% here), but there are good reasons to believe that there was a very large slump. Probably more still voted Conservative than for the LibDem, but when what is normally an absolute pillar gets wobbly that's really, really bad...

Dairying (and pomological and viticultural) communities in the US tend to vote to the left of big cereal grain/legume agriculture communities and WAY to the left of ranching communities. Is that not the case in England?

I think thw general rule is that dairy and sheep farmers are far more depressed and miserable than wheat farmers, but they are basically small businessmen/managers/owners so not particularly inclined to vote Labour. The non-Tory vote comes from smallholders and artisanal types who are happy enough voting Lib Dem or even Green (bear in mind the Green Party proper has policies that would not be remotely popular with even the most organic hippy farmer, but they can cope).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I’d be fascinated to see how members of the farming community voted; Labour made a big outreach (Keir was the first leader to speak at the NFU conference for a decade) and there’s been a number of rows over their treatment by the Government- not helped by Boris saying ‘let the pigs die’,

I've heard credible second-hand reports and rumours of grumbling and muttering from the farming community in North Shropshire about various issues - material pressures (many of which are Brexit-related), concerns about the government's enthusiasm for 'free trade' deals, irritation that Paterson (who was supposed to be their man) wasn't pulling his weight (which added to anger at what he was actually doing instead...), that kind of thing. The farming community in North Shropshire is dominated by dairying and is overwhelmingly comprised of landowning farmers so is ordinarily extremely Tory (we're probably taking over 90% here), but there are good reasons to believe that there was a very large slump. Probably more still voted Conservative than for the LibDem, but when what is normally an absolute pillar gets wobbly that's really, really bad...

Dairying (and pomological and viticultural) communities in the US tend to vote to the left of big cereal grain/legume agriculture communities and WAY to the left of ranching communities. Is that not the case in England?

I think thw general rule is that dairy and sheep farmers are far more depressed and miserable than wheat farmers, but they are basically small businessmen/managers/owners so not particularly inclined to vote Labour. The non-Tory vote comes from smallholders and artisanal types who are happy enough voting Lib Dem or even Green (bear in mind the Green Party proper has policies that would not be remotely popular with even the most organic hippy farmer, but they can cope).

Isn't most of the green/labour farmer votes from hobby-farmers who are rich enough to farm for fun and not hugley impacted financially by any green policies ?

[Geoffrey Howe]

I’d be fascinated to see how members of the farming community voted; Labour made a big outreach (Keir was the first leader to speak at the NFU conference for a decade) and there’s been a number of rows over their treatment by the Government- not helped by Boris saying ‘let the pigs die’,

I've heard credible second-hand reports and rumours of grumbling and muttering from the farming community in North Shropshire about various issues - material pressures (many of which are Brexit-related), concerns about the government's enthusiasm for 'free trade' deals, irritation that Paterson (who was supposed to be their man) wasn't pulling his weight (which added to anger at what he was actually doing instead...), that kind of thing. The farming community in North Shropshire is dominated by dairying and is overwhelmingly comprised of landowning farmers so is ordinarily extremely Tory (we're probably taking over 90% here), but there are good reasons to believe that there was a very large slump. Probably more still voted Conservative than for the LibDem, but when what is normally an absolute pillar gets wobbly that's really, really bad...

Can you explain the importance of this?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dairying (and pomological and viticultural) communities in the US tend to vote to the left of big cereal grain/legume agriculture communities and WAY to the left of ranching communities. Is that not the case in England?

Well, sure: there are few people in the country more right-wing than arable farmers or beef farmers! Rich buggers as a rule. But generally speaking dairy farmers are more likely to be Conservatives than sheep farmers as the latter are more likely to be smallholders and smallholders are more likely to be genepool Liberals or tenant farmers. What needs to be noted is that from the mid century until deregulation and the end of the Milk Marketing Board in the 1990s dairy farmers were a prosperous and protected group and this encouraged Conservative voting and identification. Life has always been more precarious for hill farmers and so there's more political diversity - most are still Conservative, but the numbers aren't so one-sided.

I think thw general rule is that dairy and sheep farmers are far more depressed and miserable than wheat farmers, but they are basically small businessmen/managers/owners so not particularly inclined to vote Labour. The non-Tory vote comes from smallholders and artisanal types who are happy enough voting Lib Dem or even Green (bear in mind the Green Party proper has policies that would not be remotely popular with even the most organic hippy farmer, but they can cope).

There's an overlap between the type that vote Green and the type that vote LibDem, but it isn't total: there are still a lot of traditional farmers (again, predominantly smallholders or relatively small medium-sized farms) who are genepool Liberals, particularly in upland regions. Of course most ceased to vote LibDem during the Coalition years, but there are indications that this might be reversing. In the Welsh-speaking parts of Wales the same sort of people tend to vote Plaid, of course.

Isn't most of the green/labour farmer votes from hobby-farmers who are rich enough to farm for fun and not hugley impacted financially by any green policies ?

The type that vote (or who are open to occasionally voting for) Labour are quite different from the type who vote Green and are at the bottom of the farming income and social scale: nearly all are tenant farmers. A late uncle of mine owned his own land and was an extremely partisan Labour Man, but he was very much a statistical anomaly.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

There's an overlap between the type that vote Green and the type that vote LibDem, but it isn't total: there are still a lot of traditional farmers (again, predominantly smallholders or relatively small medium-sized farms) who are genepool Liberals, particularly in upland regions. Of course most ceased to vote LibDem during the Coalition years, but there are indications that this might be reversing. In the Welsh-speaking parts of Wales the same sort of people tend to vote Plaid, of course.

Where did these voters go post-Coalition ?, it seems unlikely they would go conservative if they disliked the Coalition government but none of the other parties beneifted much from the lib dem collapse in these regions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Farmers Weekly actually run semi-regular surveys on this topic, and they're useful in terms of giving a broad overview:



For context (and it is important context!) the proportion of tenant farmers is somewhere between a third and a quarter of the overall total.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where did these voters go post-Coalition ?, it seems unlikely they would go conservative if they disliked the Coalition government but none of the other parties beneifted much from the lib dem collapse in these regions.

There was a general shattering in 2015 (UKIP picked up quite a few, some certainly went Conservative as well even if that seems paradoxical, some didn't vote) but the polarised atmosphere of 2017 and 2019 threw almost all firmly into the Conservative camp.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Where did these voters go post-Coalition ?, it seems unlikely they would go conservative if they disliked the Coalition government but none of the other parties beneifted much from the lib dem collapse in these regions.

There was a general shattering in 2015 (UKIP picked up quite a few, some certainly went Conservative as well even if that seems paradoxical, some didn't vote) but the polarised atmosphere of 2017 and 2019 threw almost all firmly into the Conservative camp.

Were these people typically the leave supporting lib dem voters? A result like the one shown in north shropshire seems to indicate that the toxicity of Swinson and her Revoke stance seems to have faded remarkabley fast.

[Blair]

It's very small but there is actually interesting internal politics within the Conservative Party over farming; not just on the issue of trade (to what extend do we allow cheap imported meat which makes it harder for British farms) but also on stuff like rewilding.

It was briefed that Carrie Johnson (a member of the Conservative Environment Network) wanted to get George Eustice sacked- Eustice is irrc from a farming family. I won't even bother going into Geronimo and the split that caused...