UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 81060 times)
Blair
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« Reply #375 on: May 31, 2021, 06:11:34 AM »

Would be interested to know people's early thoughts/predictions on this
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beesley
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« Reply #376 on: May 31, 2021, 07:02:14 AM »


More broadly I don't think it matters as much as people think it does; it can help sway some votes but it generally needs to hook into a much wider issue (e.g they're not local which is why they don't understand why local issue x is so important) 


I would broadly agree: perhaps to best exemplify this, there was the case of Paul Nuttall who was seen as untrustworthy when he was seen as carpetbagging into Stoke by 'only' living in a flat once, yet the Tory MP for the same seat now was a councillor in Ashford, but this wasn't a salient issue.
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morgieb
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« Reply #377 on: May 31, 2021, 09:42:57 PM »

Would be interested to know people's early thoughts/predictions on this
Nominating Cox's sister was the right move for Labour here. B&S seems to be a better fit for Labour's current coalition than Hartlepool too. I'd be surprised if Labour lose here. If they go then Starmer is done.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #378 on: June 01, 2021, 09:50:09 PM »

Would be interested to know people's early thoughts/predictions on this
Nominating Cox's sister was the right move for Labour here. B&S seems to be a better fit for Labour's current coalition than Hartlepool too. I'd be surprised if Labour lose here. If they go then Starmer is done.
Who replace him that case any leavers???
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morgieb
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« Reply #379 on: June 02, 2021, 03:15:08 AM »

Would be interested to know people's early thoughts/predictions on this
Nominating Cox's sister was the right move for Labour here. B&S seems to be a better fit for Labour's current coalition than Hartlepool too. I'd be surprised if Labour lose here. If they go then Starmer is done.
Who replace him that case any leavers???
A pure leaver I think would be unlikely. More likely is someone with a more "nuanced" position ala Nandy. But I struggle to see Rayner not winning the nomination if Starmer's leadership proves untenable.
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Pericles
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« Reply #380 on: June 02, 2021, 04:34:40 AM »

Would be interested to know people's early thoughts/predictions on this
Nominating Cox's sister was the right move for Labour here. B&S seems to be a better fit for Labour's current coalition than Hartlepool too. I'd be surprised if Labour lose here. If they go then Starmer is done.
Who replace him that case any leavers???
A pure leaver I think would be unlikely. More likely is someone with a more "nuanced" position ala Nandy. But I struggle to see Rayner not winning the nomination if Starmer's leadership proves untenable.

During his actual leadership Starmer has already shifted Labour a lot on Brexit, he doesn't even want to renegotiate the Brexit deal. Given how much complaining there has been from Remainers about this, the more likely alternative is that a new Labour leader starts attacking the Brexit deal more, when it is likely in Labour's interests to move on.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #381 on: June 02, 2021, 06:40:27 AM »
« Edited: June 02, 2021, 06:45:20 AM by Lord Halifax »

Looks like the Greens are trying to muscle their way into the contest in Batley and Spen..

"Rugby league international Ross Peltier has been chosen as the Green Party's candidate for the forthcoming Batley and Spen by-election."
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leeds-57270358

Paul Halloran has posted on facebook that he'll be "announcing my intentions by the end of this week", so waiting to the last minute and milking the media attention for all it's worth. 
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #382 on: June 02, 2021, 09:54:11 AM »

Would be interested to know people's early thoughts/predictions on this
Nominating Cox's sister was the right move for Labour here. B&S seems to be a better fit for Labour's current coalition than Hartlepool too. I'd be surprised if Labour lose here. If they go then Starmer is done.
Who replace him that case any leavers???
A pure leaver I think would be unlikely. More likely is someone with a more "nuanced" position ala Nandy. But I struggle to see Rayner not winning the nomination if Starmer's leadership proves untenable.

During his actual leadership Starmer has already shifted Labour a lot on Brexit, he doesn't even want to renegotiate the Brexit deal. Given how much complaining there has been from Remainers about this, the more likely alternative is that a new Labour leader starts attacking the Brexit deal more, when it is likely in Labour's interests to move on.

But that's partly down to Starmer being seen by many (not entirely fairly, but that's the nature of the beast) as an "ultra-remainer" prior to the last GE. Another hypothetical leader such as Burnham or Nandy wouldn't have this baggage, so might actually be able to critique the Brexit outcomes better.

(btw I remain doubtful that Rayner actually wants the job, her not standing last year was no accident)
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #383 on: June 03, 2021, 11:38:15 AM »

"The Liberal Democrats have announced a new candidate to stand in the Batley and Spen by-election after their original candidate Jo Conchie withdrew.

Tom Gordon, a current councillor in Wakefield, will replace Ms Conchie, who withdrew from the race because of health issues."

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2021-06-03/batley-and-spen-liberal-democrats-announce-new-candidate-for-by-election
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #384 on: June 04, 2021, 12:09:37 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2021, 11:43:01 AM by Lord Halifax »

Batley and Spen candidates:

Far right or right wing populist:
Jayda Fransen - Independent (ex-EDL and Britain First)
Jack Thompson - UKIP
Anne Marie Waters - For Britain Movement
Susan Laird - Heritage Party
Thérèse Hirst - English Democrats

Libertarian:
Jonathan Tilt

Centre-right:
Ryan Stephenson - Conservative
Paul Bickerdike - Christian Peoples Alliance

Centrist or mixed left/right:
Tom Gordon - Liberal Democrats
Ollie Purser - Social Democratic Party
Andrew Smith - Rejoin EU

Centre-left:
Kim Leadbeater - Labour
Corey Robinson - Yorkshire Party
Ross Peltier - Green Party

Far left:
George Galloway - Workers Party of Britain
Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism)

Loonie:
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)

Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance)
Anne Marie Waters (For Britain)

So two new candidates (in green) - one Libertarian and one (other..) loonie, and no Green replacement candidate. The Heritage Party is the most moderate of the right wing populist options, followed by UKIP. But it's unclear if they can attract a sizable number of Halloran voters, the others are likely too extreme. UKIP is a mess and a shadow of its former self, and the others are all micro parties.
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YL
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« Reply #385 on: June 04, 2021, 12:18:52 PM »

It's still not clear whether the Heavy Woollen District Independents are standing, is it?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #386 on: June 04, 2021, 12:21:26 PM »

Halloran as Reform Party candidate (they haven't announced anyone yet) is the persistent rumour.

Tbh not sure if Galloway counts as "far left" these days either.....
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #387 on: June 04, 2021, 12:24:07 PM »

It's still not clear whether the Heavy Woollen District Independents are standing, is it?

No. For what it's worth Halloran's latest facebook post is very dismissive of the Tories.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #388 on: June 04, 2021, 12:25:39 PM »

I also note no sign of the Leftie S***posters Internet Meme Party after their Hartlepool flop.
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YL
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« Reply #389 on: June 04, 2021, 12:31:40 PM »

Tbh not sure if Galloway counts as "far left" these days either.....

Some of his recent antics look like an argument for the "horseshoe theory".
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #390 on: June 04, 2021, 12:42:14 PM »

Halloran as Reform Party candidate (they haven't announced anyone yet) is the persistent rumour.


His persistent anti-Tory rhetoric makes the most sense if he is running, but he may not have decided whether it'll be as an Independent or for Reform UK since he has delayed the decision to the last minute, or he is just trying to get as much media attention as possible when he declares. I used to think the latter was most likely, but I'm less certain now. He would probably prefer to be endorsed by Reform UK without having to formally join them (bad for his "local hero" brand with an official national affiliation).
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beesley
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« Reply #391 on: June 04, 2021, 01:47:37 PM »

Well, that should be £5,000 for Kirklees Council in the bag.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #392 on: June 05, 2021, 02:05:55 PM »

Paul Halloran is not running.

"After weeks of sleepless nights, an element of guilt & pure frustration, I have decided to step away from this election as a candidate."
https://www.facebook.com/paulforbatleyandspen/
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Blair
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« Reply #393 on: June 06, 2021, 03:09:48 AM »

Sunday Times has an article claiming that Galloway is basically going to take the entire ‘muslim’ (their words) vote and doom Labour
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #394 on: June 06, 2021, 04:27:24 AM »

Sunday Times has an article claiming

Stop right there. Wink
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Coldstream
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« Reply #395 on: June 06, 2021, 04:55:53 AM »

Sunday Times has an article claiming that Galloway is basically going to take the entire ‘muslim’ (their words) vote and doom Labour

He said Humza Yousaf couldn’t represent Scotland because he wasn’t a Celt “like me”. I don’t think his support with Muslim voters is as important to him as it once was.
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beesley
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« Reply #396 on: June 06, 2021, 05:32:18 AM »

Sunday Times has an article claiming that Galloway is basically going to take the entire ‘muslim’ (their words) vote and doom Labour

Someone had an article in 2019 claiming he would do the same in West Bromwich East and let the Tories in by splitting the vote. The Tories won of course, but he got only ~430 votes.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #397 on: June 06, 2021, 06:40:01 AM »

Sunday Times has an article claiming that Galloway is basically going to take the entire ‘muslim’ (their words) vote and doom Labour

It really does have the whiff of an uncritical pro-GG puff piece.

Then again, after Hartlepool it makes some sense for Labour people to fear the worst.
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Blair
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« Reply #398 on: June 06, 2021, 08:54:54 AM »
« Edited: June 06, 2021, 09:14:11 AM by Blair »

Sunday Times has an article claiming that Galloway is basically going to take the entire ‘muslim’ (their words) vote and doom Labour

It really does have the whiff of an uncritical pro-GG puff piece.

Then again, after Hartlepool it makes some sense for Labour people to fear the worst.

Much like with Hartlepool it will be the size of the margin that will actually be more newsworthy; if Labour lose by say 500 votes (with Galloway having got 1,000) then it's obviously frustrating and bad for Labour... but there will have been bigger problems going into this race that could have offset this.

Doesn't really help that neither of these by-elections were actually required...
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #399 on: June 06, 2021, 09:08:49 AM »
« Edited: June 06, 2021, 11:39:30 AM by CumbrianLeftie »

Thing about Hartlepool is, the original (49-42 Tory lead) byelection poll was probably pretty accurate at the time - when the campaign was just getting under way.

A good effort from Labour might still have turned that sort of margin around, instead we got what was maybe their most maladroit byelection offering since Crewe and Nantwich in 2008.

This one is likely to be close enough for a good campaign to make a difference.

Which is both an opportunity and warning for Labour.

(btw I'm not sure that the margin in B&S will resonate either, all that will matter is the result. Even a narrow defeat would put Starmer's leadership into possibly terminal crisis - but the obverse of that is a razor-thin hold could, likely successfully, be spun by his people as a "turning of the tide")
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