UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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November 29, 2022, 06:42:08 AM
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mileslunn
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« Reply #200 on: May 06, 2021, 09:32:06 PM »

Broadly I can identify 3 main reasons behind Labour's poor showing beyond the global trends.



1. Brexit has won: Whatever negative effects that may have come from brexist are masked by the pandemic meaning that a voter hasn't felt any direct negative effects from brexit given the vastly more disruptive pandemic.

2. Successful Vaccination: The UK's vaccination efforts have been far superior to that of the EU once again reinforcing things in favour of the Brexist Side. Furthermore the return to normal under the Tories has begun which has given the Tory Party a large popularity boost.

3. Labour Running on Nothing: Labour literary had no policies or ideas to run on beyond generic tory sleeze which the public is already tired off and see the tories as finally providing stability.


Absolutely, now whether Brexit will turn out well hard to say, but I also think Remainers made a mistake by claiming what a disaster it will be and its likely Brexit won't be as bad as predictions thus hurting there.  Labour's real problem is much like Democrats they are losing blue collar communities, but they haven't been able to offset it with gains in upper middle class suburbs like Democrats have and that is a challenge.  Democrats are more like Liberal Democrats than Labour and in many ways results for Labour are more akin to what would happen if Bernie Sanders instead of Biden were nominee.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #201 on: May 06, 2021, 09:38:42 PM »

Is there a live stream of the election coverage?

BBC doesn't start their coverage until tomorrow morning London-time, but Sky started theirs at midnight. Its live on the site for easy viewing, at least in the US.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #202 on: May 06, 2021, 09:42:48 PM »

Is there a live stream of the election coverage?

BBC doesn't start their coverage until tomorrow morning London-time, but Sky started theirs at midnight. Its live on the site for easy viewing, at least in the US.

Thanks!  Much appreciated.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #203 on: May 06, 2021, 11:09:52 PM »

You can physically see the Labour loss in progress, sourced from Sky news. Conservative votes in blue, Labour in red. The conservative pile is bigger. Other tables are for others, and they have near nothing.

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beesley
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« Reply #204 on: May 06, 2021, 11:44:57 PM »

Ugh, I have woken up to no result?
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #205 on: May 06, 2021, 11:54:57 PM »
« Edited: May 06, 2021, 11:58:53 PM by Red Velvet »


This Labour disaster is so refreshing. Such delicious news to have on breakfast.

Corbyn’s biggest failure was compromising too much on the issues with these centrist neoliberal people, especially regarding stuff like Brexit when he clearly was correct in his earlier political instincts. He should’ve kept his more sympathetic positions towards “leave”. His mistake was not being enough of a radical.

The centrists obviously came to the opposite conclusion and will insist on everything that doesn’t work. Labour will keep losing relevance, alongside many other social democratic European parties that simply refuse to reinvent themselves.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #206 on: May 07, 2021, 01:00:33 AM »

This can't be blamed all on Starmer.

Sure maybe he isn't that inspiring but what it really comes down to is that the Tory brand is much more popular than the Labour Party's brand.

Vacuous idiot MPs like Russell-Moyle are blaming it on Starmer because they have ulterior motives.  They should instead think about why Labour's brand is damaged and why traditional Labour voters think they can still put their trust in Boris despite all that has happened over the last 18 months.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #207 on: May 07, 2021, 01:04:59 AM »

This can't be blamed all on Starmer.

Sure maybe he isn't that inspiring but what it really comes down to is that the Tory brand is much more popular than the Labour Party's brand.

Vacuous idiot MPs like Russell-Moyle are blaming it on Starmer because they have ulterior motives.  They should instead think about why Labour's brand is damaged and why traditional Labour voters think they can still put their trust in Boris despite all that has happened over the last 18 months.

Throw in a bit of the trends across the west with the Left doing worse in post-industrial areas and better in globalized ones and you got the general picture.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #208 on: May 07, 2021, 01:06:42 AM »

Con 15529
Lab 8589
Reform 368
Green 358
Lib-Dem 349

A shellacking. 6940 majority.
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Matty
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« Reply #209 on: May 07, 2021, 01:07:18 AM »

Con 15529
Lab 8589
Reform 368
Green 358
Lib-Dem 349

A shellacking

Jesus Christ
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #210 on: May 07, 2021, 01:07:45 AM »

The Tories would have to be very, very stupid to dump Boris, I feel.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #211 on: May 07, 2021, 01:23:42 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2021, 01:28:49 AM by GALeftist »



Oof. I realize that this isn't necessarily all Starmer's fault like it's going to be painted as, but still. Not good.

(also, I suppose any other leader wouldn't have been 20 points ahead)
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #212 on: May 07, 2021, 01:24:37 AM »

Wow. I was quite wrong.

As for Starmer, I like him but he's pretty ineffective. He hasn't been out criticising the poor handling of Brexit. How much have we heard about the collapse of negotiations with Norway? (Virtually nothing.)
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #213 on: May 07, 2021, 01:24:45 AM »

The main problem for Labour would be the reason for the vacancy: Hill has been accused of sexual harassment and faces an Employment Tribunal relating to the allegations later this year. Given that the accusations were known at the time of the last election he really should not have been allowed to stand again.

Anyway, this is a very odd town with very odd and not always entirely predictable politics. Labour have the biggest base and are the best organised party locally and will benefit from the fact that opposition voters are more likely to turn out in by-elections. Assumptions that you can just add up the Conservative and Brexit Party votes from the last GE and project onto a by-election are... silly... but I presume the Conservatives will make an effort (or at least run a noisy campaign to the effect) and hope that the oddities of the constituency break their way. Quite what to expect from the artists formerly known as UKIP/the Brexit Party I'm not entirely sure, but, again, presumably some effort just because of past performances and local government strength.* Which is the other issue: there might (although this isn't certain) be various independent runs from various egotistical local players that might be worth a few thousand votes, or not.

Turns out you'd have gotten very close to the result by doing just that. Tory + Brexit = 54.7% and Jill Mortimer got 51.9%, only 2.8 points short. Reform UK got 1.2%.

The result is basically what someone with only superficial knowledge of British politics and the region would have guessed by looking at the 2019 numbers.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #214 on: May 07, 2021, 01:34:33 AM »

how are y'all celeberating the start of the 1000 year tory reich in england ?
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Pericles
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« Reply #215 on: May 07, 2021, 01:34:54 AM »

Not sure how on earth that happened, Starmer needs to go further in ruthlessly eliminating Labour's negatives and now take the chance to promote some bold sounding policies that poll well. The problem is that Boris right now is pretty popular with the vaccine rollout, hopefully his popularity will fade over the next few years. It's a shame that there is no electoral penalty for the many errors in the Covid response but there's not much that can be done, Covid is in the past.
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« Reply #216 on: May 07, 2021, 01:41:28 AM »

Darkly funny that the Northern Independence Party — who everyone on twitter seemed to believe would demolish the neoliberals in Labour, resurrect Jeremy Corbyn and usher in a new age of socialist revolution (starting in Hartlepool) — ended with 250 votes, just two more than a convicted sex criminal who was on the ballot for some reason.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #217 on: May 07, 2021, 01:42:17 AM »

Not sure how on earth that happened, Starmer needs to go further in ruthlessly eliminating Labour's negatives and now take the chance to promote some bold sounding policies that poll well. The problem is that Boris right now is pretty popular with the vaccine rollout, hopefully his popularity will fade over the next few years. It's a shame that there is no electoral penalty for the many errors in the Covid response but there's not much that can be done, Covid is in the past.
In Hartlepool it seems both candidates were good and capable of earning crossover support. What tipped things in a big way is Boris. He's the 800-pound gorilla.
God help Labour if they still face popular Boris in 2024.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #218 on: May 07, 2021, 01:46:24 AM »

Not sure how on earth that happened, Starmer needs to go further in ruthlessly eliminating Labour's negatives and now take the chance to promote some bold sounding policies that poll well. The problem is that Boris right now is pretty popular with the vaccine rollout, hopefully his popularity will fade over the next few years. It's a shame that there is no electoral penalty for the many errors in the Covid response but there's not much that can be done, Covid is in the past.
In Hartlepool it seems both candidates were good and capable of earning crossover support. What tipped things in a big way is Boris. He's the 800-pound gorilla.
God help Labour if they still face popular Boris in 2024.

On the contrary both candidates were "a bit sh**t" (to use a Britishism), but their weaknesses probably cancelled each other out.

What makes you think Williams earned "crossover support"? He got less votes than Labour did in 2019.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #219 on: May 07, 2021, 01:47:13 AM »

how are y'all celeberating the start of the 1000 year tory reich in england ?


Well one has to understand that it's a different Tory party every few years. I can't see George Osborne with these results in Hartlepool, even if he might be doing better now than in 2015.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #220 on: May 07, 2021, 01:47:56 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2021, 02:15:41 AM by Oryxslayer »

Complete Results:

Jill Mortimer - Conservative Party: 15,529
Paul Daniel Williams - Labour Party: 8,589
Sam Lee - Independent: 2,904
Claire Martin - Heritage Party: 468
John Prescott - Reform UK: 368
Rachel Sara Featherstone -  Green Party: 358
Andrew Michael Hagon - Liberal Democrat: 349
Thelma Doris Walker - Independent: 250
Chris Killick - Independent: 248
Hilton Dawson - North East Party: 163
W. Ralph Ward-Jackson - Independent: 157
Gemma Evans - Women's Equality Party: 140
Adam Gaines - Independent: 126
The Incredible Flying Brick - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party: 108
David Bettney - Social Democratic Party: 104
Steve Jack - Freedom Alliance, No Lockdowns, No Curfews: 72

Total Votes: 29,933
Margin: 6,940 Conservative Majority



The result is basically what someone with only superficial knowledge of British politics and the region would have guessed by looking at the 2019 numbers.

Probably because at the end of the day that is exactly what happened, albeit turnout in the two contests is not the same. This is not unique, its a similar pattern in other councilor seats that have reported. Those places with a good Brexit/UKIP vote have seen that vote percentage go near 100% to the Tories in almost all circumstances.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #221 on: May 07, 2021, 01:56:27 AM »

Not sure how on earth that happened, Starmer needs to go further in ruthlessly eliminating Labour's negatives and now take the chance to promote some bold sounding policies that poll well. The problem is that Boris right now is pretty popular with the vaccine rollout, hopefully his popularity will fade over the next few years. It's a shame that there is no electoral penalty for the many errors in the Covid response but there's not much that can be done, Covid is in the past.
In Hartlepool it seems both candidates were good and capable of earning crossover support. What tipped things in a big way is Boris. He's the 800-pound gorilla.
God help Labour if they still face popular Boris in 2024.

On the contrary both candidates were "a bit sh**t" (to use a Britishism), but their weaknesses probably cancelled each other out.

What makes you think Williams earned "crossover support"? He got less votes than Labour did in 2019.
I said "capable of earning crossover support".
Seriously...I expected you to have better reading comprehension than this...
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Pericles
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« Reply #222 on: May 07, 2021, 01:58:39 AM »

Labour has to stick with Starmer, the voting system means any leadership contest would suck months of time and energy away that the party can't afford and would shift it even further from where it needs to be. If the MPs were the ones with the sole power over the leadership, it might be possible for Labour to roll the dice on a fresh face if Starmer can't get his ratings up.
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YL
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« Reply #223 on: May 07, 2021, 02:04:50 AM »

Ugh, that is probably the most depressing by-election result ever.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #224 on: May 07, 2021, 02:35:02 AM »

A pretty disastrous result for Labour and shows they have a long ways to go before returning to office.  But also they do have 3 years left never mind the successful vaccine rollout is probably helping Tories.  So I suspect things will tighten a bit by next election, but with how big a ditch Labour is in not sure they can easily win.

Big trouble is you are seeing similar re-alignment to US: working class communities swinging rightward while upper middle class suburbs leftward.  In US there are enough of the latter to cancel out former thus how Biden won.  In UK I am not sure if that is the case or at least means Labour needs to absolutely dominate the commuter belt including winning some normally very safe Tory constituencies.  and Johnson for all his flaws, is no Trump and doesn't create the kind of toxicity Trump did in suburbs.
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