UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[afleitch]

The Met is the worst police force in the country. It has improved a bit since Macpherson, but the fundamental character is what it is and just look at it.

The optics are just dire. One of their own has been arrested for murder, there's a history of disturbing behaviour that the Met may or may not have known about...and they do this.

[Blair]

The Met is the worst police force in the country. It has improved a bit since Macpherson, but the fundamental character is what it is and just look at it.

I was born a few years before Macpherson & grew up in London; while I've been lucky to never have to deal with the police in a personal capacity it certainly seems that after some progress was made things have really fallen off the rails in the past few years.

The rather depressing thing is that there's both a fundamental failure at the street level & at the senior leadership. Stop & search is often cited but the more worrying issue is what happens after people are stopped & searched- young people are often strip searched, taken to a police station miles away and then given a receipt saying 'oh sorry we got it wrong'.

The problem on the ground is only going to get worse due to the poor quality of police recruits; which itself comes from the Government telling the police to hire basically anyone who comes in. I was told something like 60% of police officers on the beat are on probation.  

Add to that a fundamental failure to deal with the endemic crimes such as car thefts, catalytic converter thefts & harassment and a failure to actually communicate to victims and you have a force that is rapidly losing respect from basically both people my age and my parents generation in London.  

Then you have the huge leadership level issues going back generations in the Met; the murder of Daniel Morgan in South London is a case where its widely suspected that there was a cover-up by serving police officers as Morgan was investigating police corruption and I'm amazed it isn't discussed more. (There was a very good C4 documentary on it)

And we of course have the case of both Ian Tomlinson & john charles de menezes- the latter where Cressida Dick was the gold commander who oversaw the operation.

EDIT- I didn't even mention phone-hacking...

[Blair]

The irony is that according to reports the local police in Lambeth Borough were happy to let it go ahead but were overruled by the Met- I'm not much of an expert on policing but the current structure of policing with operational control from the Met & policing split up into random Basic Unit Commands that have no geographic logic is a recipe for absolutely disaster

[CumbrianLefty]

Sadiq Khan, the London mayor - normally a very cautious Labour politician (very much in the Starmer mould in this respect) has all but said that he wants Cressida Dick gone over this.

[Blair]

Sadiq Khan, the London mayor - normally a very cautious Labour politician (very much in the Starmer mould in this respect) has all but said that he wants Cressida Dick gone over this.

And even more significant as Cressida Dick has relatively been a political ally of Khan who campaigned against police cuts & warned about no-deal.

I did see someone point out on twitter that while Sadiq has the power to fire her, the new appointment will be made by the Home Secretary. Although there is still a basic fundamental principle that we seem to be losing that public officials should resign when their organisation fails this badly.

[Conservatopia]

Cressie has no friends on the right so and the fact that it would be Patel picking the replacement means that she is unlikely to find much support amongst the Tories.  I think her days may be numbered.

[Zinneke]

The idea of Patel choosing the replacement should be enough for any sane person to realise that this symbolic scalp is not worth it.

[CumbrianLefty]

She has more important things to do anyway.

(such as jailing people for 10 years for being disrespectful to statues)

[Cassius]

Mike Hill, the MP for Hartlepool, has just resigned, so there’ll be a by election there at some point, possibly on the same day as the locals. I guess it’s not outside the realms of possibility that Labour could actually lose the seat, although I’d think it unlikely as Richard Tice will probably stand again and split the non-Labour vote as he did in 2019 (and of course Labour might just hold it with an increased vote share, who knows).

[Zinneke]

If Labour gets blown out would there be talk of a leadership election?

[Cassius]

If Labour gets blown out would there be talk of a leadership election?

I doubt they’ll lose (not impossible, but unlikely) but obviously if they did it would be a serious blow for Starmer, who has spent much of the last year trying to ‘detoxify’ (to put it crudely) Labour’s image in precisely these kinds of seats. Still, I don’t think he’d be challenged, not least because I don’t see who could credibly claim to do a better job.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The main problem for Labour would be the reason for the vacancy: Hill has been accused of sexual harassment and faces an Employment Tribunal relating to the allegations later this year. Given that the accusations were known at the time of the last election he really should not have been allowed to stand again.

Anyway, this is a very odd town with very odd and not always entirely predictable politics. Labour have the biggest base and are the best organised party locally and will benefit from the fact that opposition voters are more likely to turn out in by-elections. Assumptions that you can just add up the Conservative and Brexit Party votes from the last GE and project onto a by-election are... silly... but I presume the Conservatives will make an effort (or at least run a noisy campaign to the effect) and hope that the oddities of the constituency break their way. Quite what to expect from the artists formerly known as UKIP/the Brexit Party I'm not entirely sure, but, again, presumably some effort just because of past performances and local government strength.* Which is the other issue: there might (although this isn't certain) be various independent runs from various egotistical local players that might be worth a few thousand votes, or not.

_{*What isn't good for them is that their issues are either dead (Brexit) or don't poll particularly well (lockdown scepticism), which doesn't seem like good news from a motivating-your-electorate perspective. But we shall see.}

[Silent Hunter]

They did elect H'Angus The Monkey as mayor, you'll recall.

[afleitch]

Richard Tice stood there last time. I expect ContinuityKIPxit to at least put some effort in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Richard Tice stood there last time. I expect ContinuityKIPxit to at least put some effort in.

And they have their local government presence. They sort of have to try.

[CumbrianLefty]

Already seeing the utterly dreadful takes on this that you would expect from certain pundits.

Labour could lose this one, they could equally win it (maybe even with an increased margin) Anybody asserting right now that they *know* that either (but mostly the former, as it happens) definitely will happen, however, is either ignorant or a charlatan (and very likely both)

From a purely psephological standpoint, it is going to be fascinating.

[Blair]

I suspect the timing is to allow it to run on the same day as the locals...

[Blair]

I also hate the word red wall and this seat shows why- the Lib Dem’s almost won the by-election in 2004!

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I also hate the word red wall and this seat shows why- the Lib Dem’s almost won the by-election in 2004!

By the way - are Tory MPs who were able to kick out Labour from constituencies considered as Red Wall ones somehow different in terms of political views and used narratives compared to the rest of Conservatives?

[CumbrianLefty]

There is some tentative evidence in that direction, yes.

(both more willing to consider "big government" interventions, but also very right wing in other areas)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mostly they're just notable for being very low quality. Most are not particularly (or at all) local to their constituencies at all either.

[beesley]

I also hate the word red wall and this seat shows why- the Lib Dem’s almost won the by-election in 2004!

By the way - are Tory MPs who were able to kick out Labour from constituencies considered as Red Wall ones somehow different in terms of political views and used narratives compared to the rest of Conservatives?

Most are not particularly (or at all) local to their constituencies at all either.

Indeed. I know you will know this, but just for others, it's worth pointing out that a lot of Tory candidates tend to apply for a whole bunch of seats and move themselves around a lot. Typically it used to be defeated MPs who would carpetbag to safer seats (e.g. Michael Fallon was MP for Darlington, lost in 1992, then became the MP for Sevenoaks on the other side of the country, Malcolm Rifkind moved from Edinburgh to Kensington. Sometimes it's more local - Richard Fuller lost in Bedford in 2017 and is now the MP for North East Bedfordshire, succeeding Alastair Burt who before being the MP for that seat was MP for Bury North etc etc)

Two perhaps more striking (and disappointing, in my view) examples were in 2019: In Broadland, in Norfolk, the selection went to a radio host whom I forget the name of, but he was removed for comments he made, so the plan was to replace him with the second placed candidate, but she (Alicia Kearns) is now the MP for Rutland and Melton over 100 miles away having been already selected as the candidate days after. Therefore the third placed candidate in the selection won.

Another example was in Stoke on Trent Central, where a local candidate did seek the selection, but was told that they needed a candidate who 'had fought a marginal seat before and therefore would be better'. The local candidate instead became the candidate in Warley and the candidate, and now MP, in Stoke on Trent Central was the 2017 candidate in Great Grimsby (an unusual move of moving to a harder seat for the Tories, not that that is particularly relevant).

As such very few of the new Tory MPs actually have connections to their seats. In the North East there are a few more than the rest of the country but not enough for their constituents to notice the difference, since they all fall into line anyway and are generally poor representatives regardless.

[Cassius]

I don’t know a lot about how the selection process works in the Labour Party, but one thing you have to bear in mind about the Conservative party selection process is that it is incredibly centralised; in order to get round to applying to be the candidate in a particular seat, you need to pass the parliamentary assessment board (PAB), which to all intents and purposes functions much like a corporate interview process (with much of the same mindless crap playing a key role), and is managed centrally. If you pass this, that gets you onto a long list of approved candidates who are then eligible to apply to local constituency associations for selection. This does mean that aspiring candidates have to criss cross the country in order to find a winnable nomination (although this has always been a feature of candidate selection).

This process in and of itself is subject to intensive meddling by CCHQ; the shortlist will often consist of three candidates, one of which has to be a woman and another an ethnic minority. This is a legacy of the Cameron era in which the selection process was dramatically centralised to stop local associations constantly selecting white male barristers/bankers/local businessmen/farmers, as that was apparently insufficiently representative. The result of this has been that the Conservative party has dramatically diversified over the last fifteen years, not just in terms of gender and race, but also in terms of schooling and general social background (whilst a large number of Conservative MP’s continue to have been privately educated, that figure has fallen precipitously from what it used to be). A lot of the so-called Red Wall MP’s do come from very atypical backgrounds for a Conservative MP (although there are also some from traditional Tory backgrounds).

The selection process is essentially designed to produce candidates who, firstly, ‘look like modern Britain’ (whatever the hell that means) and, secondly, aren’t likely to rock the boat (and I think this discourages some more accomplished professional people from applying). This is good for publicity and party discipline but often produces dud local MP’s.

[beesley]

-snip-

I'm sure you're aware, but there is a Vice Chair, usually an MP, in CCHQ responsible for running the candidate selection process, to the point of timetabling selection meetings in constituencies.

There used to, and there may still be an unconscious tradition of 'rewarding' Conservative candidates who had stood in unwinnable seats or narrowly missed out on marginals previously over new candidates even when the latter are more local. I get the sense many candidates know this and therefore do so. Part of this is due to new openings and presumably long-time candidates snapping them up. A few examples might illustrate this:

-Theresa May, elected MP for Maidenhead in 1997, stood in North West Durham against Tim Farron (neither are from the area) in 1992.
-Jacob Rees-Mogg, elected MP for North East Somerset in 2010, stood in The Wrekin (it was Labour then) in 2001 and Central Fife or whatever the seat was called then in 1997. NE Somerset is his home seat.
-Bim Afolami, elected MP for Hitchin and Harpenden in 2017, stood in Lewisham Deptford in 2015.
-Paul Bristow, elected MP for Peterborough in 2019, stood in Middlesbrough South in 2010 - though in this case Peterborough is his home seat.
-Jonathan Gullis, elected MP for Stoke on Trent North in 2019, stood in Washington and Sunderland West in 2017.

Of course this happens in the other parties too (e.g. Ian Blackford is from Edinburgh and stood in Ayr previously) but far more prominently in the Tories. For all the furore that (justifiably) ensued when Paul Nuttall bought a flat in Stoke last minute during the by-election and slept on a mattress in it once or whatever, nobody makes a big deal when the Tories do it.

[afleitch]

My favourite is alma-mater (shudder) Gerry Malone who lost in Hillhead in 1982, won Aberdeen South in 1983, lost it in 1987, won Winchester in 1992 lost it in 1997 by two votes, won a legal challenge and got hammered in the by-election