UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Torrain]

Lib Dems now “cautiously optimistic” according to Sky. They’ve done a 180^o on expectations management in just under an hour, so either the numbers look pretty good, or they’re just messing with us.

[Torrain]

Sounds like Labour’s going to lose their deposit in T&H, which (ironically) bodes very well for the opposition. Huge tactical vote if true.

As reference, Labour lost their deposit in Chesham and Amersham (getting 1.6%), but held it in North Shropshire (getting 9.7%).

[Torrain]

Lib Dems now “cautiously optimistic” according to Sky. They’ve done a 180^o on expectations management in just under an hour, so either the numbers look pretty good, or they’re just messing with us.

They could be getting such good boxes in town that they assume the country ones wont likley swing it.

Always a possibility. But both Tory and Lib Dem sources are now saying that the towns have a significant Lib Dem lead, and the rural spots are drawing close to even.

I never trust the bluster of a Lib Dem leaflet, or a blade comment in a debate. But on election night? As soon as you hear them get smug, it tends to be all over…

[Torrain]

I see they’ve gone for the Gordon Brown playbook and blamed it all on David Miliband Tory rebels.

Not sure that’s a winning strategy for Johnson allies calling for “an end to party division”. What’s easier to end the division? Individually placate 148 stubborn rebels, or remove one troublesome PM?

[Torrain]

So Labour’s vote-share in Wakefield appears to believe  the best it’s been since the national landslide of 2001, and they have the largest numerical majority they’ve had since 2005 (on a much smaller turnout).

Meanwhile the Lib Dems became the first non-Tory party to win the land around T&H since the 19th century,  before the universal franchise and existence of the Labour Party.

Big night.

[Torrain]

Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 84

Not the most important result from Wakefield, but still - LOL.

(which of course hasn't stopped their online claque saying what a terrible Labour result it was)

My favourite NIP stat is that their “vote NIP” tweet got more likes than they got votes in Wakefield, which tells you all you need to know…

[Torrain]

Is there a chance the Lib-Dem By-election machine might start getting fatigued ?, the supply of new activist seems rather top heavy and I don't think they're recruiting that many new ones given the anemic polling numbers.

It really doesn’t take much for the Lib Dems to recruit candidates, let alone 1 per constituency for something as rare as a by-election. There’s a huge bench of councillors to choose from, and that’s not even accounting for the age-old Lib Dem strategy of reaching out to a local worthy, typically a GP at the local doctor’s surgery, a community activist who saved the town hall from being demolished, or similar.

As long as there’s a candidate, and some hope of a victory (which is higher now than it’s been since nearly 2010), they’ll be able to find canvassing volunteers - especially if they’ve followed their typical recruiting model. I’ll confess, the only time I’ve ever directly contributed to an election beyond voting was back in the 2017 GE. I was actually a member of another party at the time, but the Lib Dems ran a councillor with near universal approval as their constituency candidate, and I was persuaded to quietly drop a bunch of leaflets off in my village. Even my Brexit-supporting father contributed.

Everyone knew how hard she had fought to save our village park from redevelopment, and how hard she had pushed for our local high school to be rebuilt, let alone her 100% attendance rate at local galas and fundraisers for causes like the Royal National Lifeboat Institution.

There’s a reason that we went from a wipeout to being the most marginal seat in the country in that election (with a margin of 3 votes). The Lib Dems picking a tiny introverted woman in her 70s as a first time parliamentary candidate made no sense on paper - but it did if you follow the adage “all politics is local” to its logical extreme.

[Torrain]

Under the current conditions - what’s the thinking on a hypothetical Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, in the event that Johnson is forced out of No.10, and decides that the lecturing circuit is preferable to being hauled in front of the Privileges Committee this autumn?

I know that several polling models have put it as a possible Labour pick-up, but I’m intrigued to hear what you guys think the likelihood of a gain is, and what the margin would look like.

I feel like it’s definitely possible, but have to imagine that CCHQ would throw money at the race, rather than face the ignominy of losing a PM’s seat. Sure these things happen (look at Thatcher’s seat in 1997, Brown’s in 2015, and Blair’s in 2019), but losing it in a high-profile by-election would do some serious damage to electoral expectations. 

[Torrain]

Rachel Reeves did a biggish campaign trip to Reading West.

Tomorrow, it will be one month exactly since submissions closed for the role Alok Sharma wants at the UN (Executive Secretary at the UNFCCC). I can’t find an exact timetable for announcements there, but if there’s even a chance he’s going to get it, then it makes sense Labour are laying the groundwork for a by-election campaign.

[Torrain]

The Times are reporting that the Baroness Dorries rumour is legitimate, and thus a by-election in Mid Bedfordshire is expected to happen in October:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nadine-dorries-peerage-will-trigger-by-election-battle-for-tories-t3gr8gl65

The seat is roughly as blue as Tiverton & Honiton or North Shropshire, but was considerably safer in 1997 (a low watermark electorally for the Tories) than either of those seats (MB having a 7,000 Tory majority then, compared to 2,000 for the other two).

The current Tory majority in Mid Bedfordshire is 24,664. That’s 425 more than T&H had before the by-election, and thus means that a loss here would become the new record for the largest majority overturned at a by-election (and the second time this record was broken, in the same year).

In normal circumstances, you’d expect the new PM’s honeymoon period to bring it easily home for the government. Will be an interesting barometer of the political environment - whatever the outcome.

[Torrain]

Does the speculation that Boris is using this by-election to move seats have any merit? It would be hard for the party to let him do that and then for him to win a by-election. Problem is if he wants to come back as PM he needs to have a safer seat than Uxbridge, coming back in this term would be too big of an ask. He always would have been a better Leader of the Opposition than Prime Minister anyway. In any case, the easier and more comfortable career path for him is to be another media commentator sniping on the sidelines.

If Johnson really is planning a comeback, I'd imagine it would look more like the career strategy he took when becoming London Mayor. Vacate the Commons for a job elsewhere, (although probably on the international stage, rather than in the capital this time), build some good publicity, and come racing back to the Commons, when a safe seat opens up.

In the early Blair years, the Kensington and Chelsea constituency was basically used as a rental for Conservative grandees who lost their seats in 1997. Michael Portillo and Malcolm Rifkind both used it for a few terms while they sought to revive their careers. I guess something similar could happen in a seat like Dorries' but it could be more controversial with Johnson. If he does come back - it definitely won't be to Kensington, which is now one of the most marginal seats in the country...

[Torrain]

The UN Secretary General has appointed Simon Stiell of Grenada as the new UN Global Climate Chief. This is significant to UK politics because it means Conservative minister Alok Sharma won’t be leaving the Commons early, and thus saves the party an uphill by-election fight in Reading West.

[Torrain]

BBC’s political editor suggests the Burnham camp are “not interested” in the seat.

That hasn’t stopped every Lobby journalist individually speculating about his intentions though. Burnham has been projecting “Westminster is broken, I’m happy where I am” for years now (he spent a full hour banging that drum throughout a Politico interview earlier this year).

Unless he’s about to parachuted right onto the opposition front bench, at the centre of a new strategy, I struggle to see him running this time around. If he’s going back to London, surely it’s as a play to be LOTO in 2024, or as a last minute cabinet draftee if Starmer wins that year?

[Torrain]

Dixon selected for Labour:
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1586761287656247296
Appreciate it's been cited several times in this thread, but really do want to recommend Michael Crick's @tomorrowsmps account. It's a window on the closest thing we have to primary season in the UK.

[Torrain]

For City of Chester and West Lancashire, seems very unlikely Tories pick up either but if did would be a massive shocker.  That being said if Tories stay above 30% in either or both, that is a good sign.  High 20s shows trouble, but at least not massive defeat.  Under 25% and especially under 20% suggests disaster.  For Labour party, need at least 50% and anything under that shows big trouble.  60% would be nice but might be a challenge.

By-elections don’t really work on national numbers like that - they’re not polls, more like focus group with a fixation on local issues. In City of Chester, Labour have never achieved over 53% of the vote, and the Tories have never fallen under 30%. It’s mostly the swing compared to 2019 that’s useful to us.

For example, Labour and the Tories both collapsed in Tiverton and Honiton in the by-election this summer, while the Lib Dems gained 38% on the prior election. Which would put us on track for a national Liberal landslide.

[Torrain]

Having Reform UK (the Brexit Party) and Rejoin EU on the same ballot is odd. Two polar-opposite single-issue parties. Has this vibe:

[Torrain]

What ever happened with the eight MPs Boris had nominated for peerages?  Did we ever find out who they were?

His Resignation Honours List has yet to be published, so we do not know...

The Telegraph previously reported that his list was submitted to the House of Lords Appointment Commission on October 10th - so it’s coming up on a month since vetting started.

[Torrain]

BJ's resignation list has been published, with four sitting MP's:

Nadine Dorries - Mid Bedfordshire
Alok Sharma - Reading West
Alister Jack - Dumfries and Galloway
nigel Adams - Selby and Ainsty

Reading West would be certain Labour, Dumfries and Galloway would be certain SNP (given Labour used to have some strength here, I wonder if they could embarrassingly push Tories to third) and the other two would be in play on current polling.

Rumour seems to be that Sunak is trying to broker the same deal that Truss did - trying to get Charles to break precedent and delay appointments until the end of this Parliament, so by-elections don't happen.

[Torrain]

Guardian sound pretty certain the peerages are being delayed.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1590300668761296896
Labour won 60% of the vote, and a 13,000 vote majority in 2019, so likely to be an easy hold.

[Torrain]

Apparently (via the Times) Rosie Cooper hasn't resigned yet because she's still haggling for some sort of severance, including trying to angle for a peerage.

Race is now expected by party insiders to be delayed until January.

[Torrain]

Lib Dems got under 7% votes last time around - swing would have to be *wild* to get the Tories (38%) into 3rd place. That being said, we’re talking Lib Dems in a by-election environment, so based on their track record in this Parliament I guess its implausible, rather than impossible.

Greens and ReformUK posted tiny numbers, so unless there’s a localist candidate, I can’t see anyone else who’d be challenging for third place.

[Torrain]

What’s the lowest the Tories could realistically come?

3rd?

Even for that someone else would have to do quite well.

In other news, West Lancashire is finally vacant: Rosie Cooper was appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds today.  So the by-election will presumably be some time in January.

When was the last January by-election for Westminster?

Pretty sure the last one was Oldham East and Saddleworth in 2011 - after the 2010 result was declared void.

[Torrain]

By-election doesn’t seem to be reported on live by the major channels - but:

• The Chester Standard are running a live-blog on the by-election.
• The New Statesman’s Ben Walker is also live-tweeting the by-election from the count.

Results expected at 3am, now apparently around 2am - maybe sooner.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1598495911256137731
Conservatives appear to have fallen to their worst performance in this seat since around the 1850s (it gets messy, back that far, so it’s hard to make a clear comparison, what with the multi-member seats and everything). In contrast, Labour broke 60% - the highest vote share of any party in the seat since 1959.



If the swing seen tonight was replicated nationally, we’re talking an easy Labour majority. As electoral debuts go, not what Sunak would have wanted.