UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Blair]

I wonder if Alba will stand I saw they put out a statement calling for a single indie candidate.

My hunch was always that the Scottish Government would fall to Labour before a majority of seats in Scotland went to SLAB (as it did in reverse to the SNP in ‘07) and because you can see the logic in a Yes voter wanting to send an SNP MP to Westminster but wanting someone new to run the devolved services.

I am intending to help out with canvassing, if I can in my hometown. Not something I've done politically for close to a decade.

Will be fun watching how many honourable members from the PLP visit- I seem to recall they sent loads up towards the end of Indyref which errrr lead to some quite funny scenes, including lots of them finally clocking there might be a problem as SLABs canvass data hadn’t been done since 1999.

[Blair]

I seem to recall they sent loads up towards the end of Indyref which errrr lead to some quite funny scenes, including lots of them finally clocking there might be a problem as SLABs canvass data hadn’t been done since 1999.

I think there were some infamous instances of such a dearth going back rather longer than that.

The best and the brightest ofc!

[Blair]

I am curious about numbers in terms of volunteers; I saw a journalist claim labour was struggling to get activists at Uxbridge on polling day which didn't really chime with what I saw online & there is a strange tendency both in & away from Labour to think flooding a seat with councillors, wannabe MPs/cllrs, students and political geographers is a somehow a substitute for a good campaign.

[Blair]

The real problem imho will be stupid activists who make flippant comments on the doorstep; honourable members do spend a lot of time talking to the public so should be slightly better than retired geography teachers

[Blair]

I’ve seen a few who are going but it tends to be the keener ones; it’s also funnily enough almost easier to get than some of the recent English by elections!

The real problem imho will be stupid activists who make flippant comments on the doorstep; honourable members do spend a lot of time talking to the public so should be slightly better than retired geography teachers

I’d be shocked if any English activist actually went all the way to Rutherglen. I’m expecting all staff & Scottish members. With the odd student at a Scottish uni depending on the time.

Scottish Labour don't have a large enough activist base. They would be foolish to reject

Given that the selection process apparently led Rutherglen CLP to lodge complaint over the whole thing, it's not a foregone conclusion that even local activists will be highly engaged.

Tbf is it really a labour selection if someone from the CLP doesn’t resign or complain?

[Blair]

It is finally confirmed that there will be a by-election in Mid Bedfordshire.

The first by election since Eastleigh where three different parties have a good chance…

[Blair]

Already seeing some very funny coverage saying if the vote is split between labour and the liberals then the Tories will be very happy and it will be a great victory- but how does them winning a 35% vote share against say 30% for labour and 28% for the liberals show they’re doing well?

The horse race coverage for by elections has gotten very bad- Tim Farron made a very good point that the recent Uxbridge one was actually similar to the liberals winning Eastleigh and well we know what happened to the liberals in 2015.

This is not a target seat for either party either.

This is how other constituencies, in a similar position to Mid Bedfordshire, have voted in past by-elections:

Kensington and Chelsea (November 1999): Con HOLD
Beaconsfield (May 1982): Con HOLD
Southend East (March 1980): Con HOLD
Hertfordshire South West (December 1979): Con HOLD

Of all of the by-elections Sunak will face, or is facing, Mid Bedfordshire will allow him to see if Labour is winning the commuter belt. If Labour gain this seat, then he will wait to the last possible moment to call an election, if the Lib Dems win he will call it in May 2024, and if he actually wins it he will say "Nadine tried to lose this for us, but we won, I am the Prime Minister"

Not sure I agree; it’s certainly a seat with a lot of commuters in it and based around towns where people commute to either MK, Bedford or London but it’s not too similar to the commuter belt seats like Reading- tbh patterns of work and migration have changed so much since 2019 it’s going to be hard to tell with these things.

[Blair]

This ought to be a completely bomb-proof constituency against any other party as it just doesn't have any obvious kernel for another party to build a challenge around; the sort of place that you'd win easily even if there was a particularly nasty swing locally in a very bad General Election. In practice it should be safer than quite a few constituencies won in 2019 with larger majorities and shares of the vote. Of course once upon a time the area was strong territory for the Liberal Party, but in this case 'once upon a time' means 'before the 1950s'.

Yeah it lacks any largish town or area where labour have some sort of base and the sort of areas that labour did well in the locals aren’t actually in this seat but the neighbouring MK ones.

Equally as much as I see it called a rural seat it’s not exactly one where there would be high levels of  NFU activity…

[Blair]

I assume both by elections will be on the same day now- oh the discourse machine will have fun.

[Blair]

Although I read that conference season might lead Mid Beds to being delayed a few weeks.

I’m v unsure how Nadine unpopularity will impact the seat- I actually vaguely know someone in the seat who is voting Tory after years of not being able to because they didn’t like her!

[Blair]

Although I read that conference season might lead Mid Beds to being delayed a few weeks.

I’m v unsure how Nadine unpopularity will impact the seat- I actually vaguely know someone in the seat who is voting Tory after years of not being able to because they didn’t like her!

I do suspect that is a classic example of anecdote not equalling data, though

Ha if a single focus group gets written up in the Times I can justify it.

I was thinking of Al’s point re Uxbridge having a negative personal vote for Boris and wondered if it would be the same!

[Blair]

Possible Tamworth by election if the honourable member Pincher resigns rather than facing a recall.

It is geographically a West Midlands seat but very Staffordshire in my mind! 19k majority but held by labour 97-05. The local election results were terrible for the Tories- one of their worst areas iirc in terms of just how much the bottom fell out.

[Blair]

A staggered running order makes it harder for the Government to spin the results at least

[Blair]

It is very much vibes based but the Lib Dem campaign doesn’t seem to be huge or as inevitable as Shropshire and others- I can’t pretend to know who will be the main challenger but it’s certainly not as obviously Lib Dem as people thought in the summer.

[Blair]

Having to run a placeholder when you’re 20% behind in the polls, lost loads of seats in the council election and the resigning member did not speak for a year on account of a case that was so bad it brought down the prime minister?

Have there ever been worse circumstances for a by election? Perhaps they should consider having some sort of oil spill over the town centre

[Blair]

What do people think the chances are of a genuine three way split in Mid Beds?

[Blair]

Yes it increasingly appears that the Lib Dems are making a fuss online but it’s hard to see the evidence other than an increasing shouting about ‘rural seats vote Lib Dem’ from activists which errr ignores that this seat isn’t NFU central as we’ve said.

I also think along with the greens labour and the Lib Dems need to get use to campaigning against each other- there’s a very weird online trend of thinking that they’re some sort of rainbow coalition and its wrong to campaign against each other.

The greens will be eyeing up a lot of labour council seats in 2026!

[Blair]

Already seeing Mid Beds being described as a marginal and a tough race! The funny thing is Tamworth is easier to win and  you can make a case re it being on labours paths to a large majority/winning back the Blair coalition but like losing Mid Beds is just hilariously awful.

The Tories moved the writ for Tamworth yesterday, but it's not to be issued until Thursday, which following the 21 to 27 working days rule puts polling day on 19 October, the same as for Mid Bedfordshire.

The Tories have a three name shortlist which according to Michael Crick does not include Eddie Hughes's wife but does include another Tory MP's wife, Karen Treacy, wife of Craig Tracey, and Tom Byrne, an advisor to Andy Street (West Midlands metro mayor), who missed out to Hughes in the original selection. I haven't seen anything new on whether whoever is selected is just a stopgap for Hughes.

I think re the last line that assumption still holds- although the sitting MP if they won gets to go on the lifeboat list which lets you seat shop.

[Blair]

If at this stage in the campaign, you don't have canvass returns (which is what most of the "leaks" have been), then you don't have a campaign.

Moreover, the fact that the figures are frequently out of date is besides the point. The point is to drive the narrative, not to check them for accuracy after the election - if that was the point, then the methodology is clearly rubbish, because it always finds the Lib Dems just narrowly behind in contests they go on to win by more than 5000 votes...

No they’ve been internal polling for the most part, not canvass returns. No-one said that the party didn’t have any canvass returns, I said that opinion changes fast in a by-election, so polling in a seat set to go Lib Dem might still show a decent Tory lead a few weeks out - it’s the direction of travel which is important, but obviously to wouldn’t release that.

I can't recall the by-election but the Lib Dems have often used some sort of fudge language such as e.g 'internal data' which can mean anything.

I don't know if the parties actually pay for regular polling in by elections; they are all richer than they once were but the going rate quoted a while back was north of £10,000 and they are dubious and all over the place in quality- some have been accurate, others vaguely correct and others just wrong.

But anyway with this entire argument my view has just been to wait and see the results; as the Liberals discovered after Shropshire you just wait for the results to vindicate you.

[Blair]

Unskew the polls!

The reform vote looks too high and I really doubt G*** M***er tiny party is going to get 4%.

I’m curious how the long campaign has been influencing this race; I know from a family friend who lives in the seat that they have had leaflets from Labour and the Liberals and been invited to a ‘coffee and chat’ with Labours PPC.

[Blair]

It’s weird how little coverage the Scottish by election is getting- I’ve not even seen a vox pox!

[Blair]

In funny news a focus group found someone who liked the Labour ppc after hearing about the CCHQ attack story about him being a greenpeace campaigner- its really baffling how slow Westminster is to wake up the fact that people of all political stripes care about the Environment!

[Blair]

Yeah both Mid Beds and Rutherglen are strange in that we’ve know for what 4 months that there was going to be a by election.

I wonder how the SNPs brand damage will impact them; I assume it’s basically that v Starmers issues as what pulls down each sides vote more.

I wonder how SNP Twitter would react to a defeat…

[Blair]

Am I correct that Rutherlegen (which I can't spell) has quite a lot of what I believe a poster on here called tongue in cheek 'Labours core vote now-old Lanarkshire grannies'?

There was a write up of the seat in the Guardian (which ironically didn't interview anyone under the age of 50)

[Blair]

I don’t really like how Lib Dems use betting odds in their campaign materials in this by upcoming by election- I know why they do it but I don’t really like it. Betting markets have always been stupid for politics especially when unlike say football, I assume those betting do not have the same amount of insight or knowledge.

Ignoring the fact they’re no longer favourites either…

But it appears there’s some red on yellow- labour has one attacking Lib Dem drug policy and Lib Dems are attacking the labour candidate as ‘Keir Starmers labour candidate’

I saw reporting about legal letters and well there was form I believe the only successful election court was triggered over the Oldham election. We luckily have not reached that level of awfulness yet.