UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Torrain]

Lib Dems got under 7% votes last time around - swing would have to be *wild* to get the Tories (38%) into 3rd place. That being said, we’re talking Lib Dems in a by-election environment, so based on their track record in this Parliament I guess its implausible, rather than impossible.

Greens and ReformUK posted tiny numbers, so unless there’s a localist candidate, I can’t see anyone else who’d be challenging for third place.

[YL]

Lib Dems got under 7% votes last time around - swing would have to be *wild* to get the Tories (38%) into 3rd place. That being said, we’re talking Lib Dems in a by-election environment, so based on their track record in this Parliament I guess its implausible, rather than impossible.

Greens and ReformUK posted tiny numbers, so unless there’s a localist candidate, I can’t see anyone else who’d be challenging for third place.

Yes, I can see the Tories falling to the low to mid 20s just based on national polling, but from what little I've seen I don't think that would be enough to fall to third.

Labour seem very confident.  Ben Walker, of Britain Elects and the New Statesman, wrote an article for the latter about how well Labour are going to do; note that he is a prospective Labour candidate for a council ward in central Chester, so I doubt he'd be doing that if they didn't think they were going to romp it.

[YL]

So, let's say Reform UK are really on 9% as in the most recent YouGov poll.  How would we expect them to do in Chester?

It's not an obviously favourable constituency for them: fairly educated and professional and clearly Remain voting.  Even so, if they're doing that well nationally oughtn't they to be saving their deposit?

[JimJamUK]

So, let's say Reform UK are really on 9% as in the most recent YouGov poll.  How would we expect them to do in Chester?

It's not an obviously favourable constituency for them: fairly educated and professional and clearly Remain voting.  Even so, if they're doing that well nationally oughtn't they to be saving their deposit?

Probably. They’re taking pretty much exclusively from the Conservatives rather than Labour. Given the Conservatives got 38% last time with the Brexit Party standing, you’d expect 7-8%, accounting for the estimated 54% remain vote perhaps 6-7%. Another way of looking at it is that the Brexit Party got 2.5% against a 2% national vote, which assuming they had stood in every seat would have got them 4-5% nationally, suggesting they’ll get 4-6%. Of course, it’s all a big hypothetical given they’re probably not actually on 9% and a lost deposit looks the most likely outcome.

[CumbrianLefty]

What’s the lowest the Tories could realistically come?

3rd?

Even for that someone else would have to do quite well.

In other news, West Lancashire is finally vacant: Rosie Cooper was appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds today.  So the by-election will presumably be some time in January.

When was the last January by-election for Westminster?

[Torrain]

What’s the lowest the Tories could realistically come?

3rd?

Even for that someone else would have to do quite well.

In other news, West Lancashire is finally vacant: Rosie Cooper was appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds today.  So the by-election will presumably be some time in January.

When was the last January by-election for Westminster?

Pretty sure the last one was Oldham East and Saddleworth in 2011 - after the 2010 result was declared void.

[adma]

So, let's say Reform UK are really on 9% as in the most recent YouGov poll.  How would we expect them to do in Chester?

It's not an obviously favourable constituency for them: fairly educated and professional and clearly Remain voting.  Even so, if they're doing that well nationally oughtn't they to be saving their deposit?

Probably. They’re taking pretty much exclusively from the Conservatives rather than Labour. Given the Conservatives got 38% last time with the Brexit Party standing, you’d expect 7-8%, accounting for the estimated 54% remain vote perhaps 6-7%. Another way of looking at it is that the Brexit Party got 2.5% against a 2% national vote, which assuming they had stood in every seat would have got them 4-5% nationally, suggesting they’ll get 4-6%. Of course, it’s all a big hypothetical given they’re probably not actually on 9% and a lost deposit looks the most likely outcome.

Unless there's a backlash to Sunak based on his being a "brown person", of course.  (*Unless*.  And given who tends to support these breakaway forces, well...)

[Torrain]

By-election doesn’t seem to be reported on live by the major channels - but:

• The Chester Standard are running a live-blog on the by-election.
• The New Statesman’s Ben Walker is also live-tweeting the by-election from the count.

Results expected at 3am, now apparently around 2am - maybe sooner.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1598495911256137731
Conservatives appear to have fallen to their worst performance in this seat since around the 1850s (it gets messy, back that far, so it’s hard to make a clear comparison, what with the multi-member seats and everything). In contrast, Labour broke 60% - the highest vote share of any party in the seat since 1959.



If the swing seen tonight was replicated nationally, we’re talking an easy Labour majority. As electoral debuts go, not what Sunak would have wanted.

[CumbrianLefty]

LibDems have some local presence in the seat, so their decent showing does not surprise.

Pathetic for Reform, and has to cast a bit of doubt on some of the recent polling.

Turnout a little higher than some thought it might be - over 40%.

[YL]

Yes, I’m not particularly surprised Reform UK didn’t do better but it increases my scepticism about their higher polling numbers.  The same goes for the Greens, and I’d think it’s a better constituency for them than for Reform UK.

A pretty good result for Labour given the cause of the by-election.  And Lub Dems finally save their deposit in a by-election this Parliament which they don’t win.

[LAB-LIB]

Any chance the circumstances of the departure of the previous MP held the swing below 15%?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A pretty good result for Labour given the cause of the by-election.

And also as it was one of those constituencies with a solid result in 2019 and therefore would not have as much room to swing violently...

[afleitch]

A pretty good result for Labour given the cause of the by-election.

And also as it was one of those constituencies with a solid result in 2019 and therefore would not have as much room to swing violently...

The swing is also in line with the higher end of swings to Labour in seats they were defending between 1992 and 1997.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Yes, I’m not particularly surprised Reform UK didn’t do better but it increases my scepticism about their higher polling numbers.  The same goes for the Greens, and I’d think it’s a better constituency for them than for Reform UK.

A pretty good result for Labour given the cause of the by-election.  And Lub Dems finally save their deposit in a by-election this Parliament which they don’t win.

I'd like to see how Reform would do in a by-election in one of those long-term Tory strongholds (one that they held throughout the 1997-2010 period) that isn't one of those Remainy Lib Dem targets. If they are polling around 5% nationally then I have a feeling that their patterns of support would look surprisingly similar to those of the Referendum Party in 1997. That is, disgruntled blue-blooded Tories in the South and East. If Farage returned as leader then it might be a different matter.

[CumbrianLefty]

Any chance the circumstances of the departure of the previous MP held the swing below 15%?

It likely made a small difference, yes.

(and the coming two byelections might be a bit of a test on this)

But overall Labour can be pretty pleased.

[JimJamUK]

Chester is a fairly young and remain voting constituency with Labour already on almost 50%. If commentators are going to jump to conclusions about how it was an underwhelming result then that is probably an important bit of context (the other option is to not obsess over the exact swing given it’s a by-election).

[adma]

A pretty good result for Labour given the cause of the by-election.  And Lub Dems finally save their deposit in a by-election this Parliament which they don’t win.

Yeah, *that* is odd; usually they're tacticalized to oblivion in these no-hope-byelection situations.  Dead cat bounce from disgruntled Tories, or from disgruntled-at-the-previous-officeholder Labourites?  (Or both?)

[CumbrianLefty]

They have a bit of a local presence, and probably didn't want to put that at too much risk.

(compare the byelections at Batley and Spen and Wakefield - in the first the LibDems have a council ward they win, so put in a bit of effort there - in the latter they don't and did almost nothing at all)

[DL]

I don't know much about what sort of a place Chester and who lives there. How is it that it seems to have been a pretty solidly Tory seat up until 1997 and then only went back to the Tories in 2010 and then back to Labour in 2015 and has been trending Labour compared to the rest of the country ever since.

How do we explain this?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know much about what sort of a place Chester and who lives there. How is it that it seems to have been a pretty solidly Tory seat up until 1997 and then only went back to the Tories in 2010 and then back to Labour in 2015 and has been trending Labour compared to the rest of the country ever since.

How do we explain this?

Well, Labour nearly won in 1992 and had been relatively close a few times before. It was last a truly safe seat in the 1950s: afterwards it was reliable for a few decades, but that's not quite the same thing. There was always a solid Labour vote in places, particularly on the Blacon estate (which has a population larger than the average small market town).

But as to its recent transformations, the most relevant fact is that Chester College (which, strictly speaking, was known by a bafflingly long list of names over the years) became a full university in 2005 and then expanded significantly.

[JimJamUK]

I don't know much about what sort of a place Chester and who lives there. How is it that it seems to have been a pretty solidly Tory seat up until 1997 and then only went back to the Tories in 2010 and then back to Labour in 2015 and has been trending Labour compared to the rest of the country ever since.

How do we explain this?

Take your pick from:
The area becoming part of the Liverpool commuter zone and voting more like it.
The growth of the University of Chester.
The short and long term movement of professional urban middle class voters to Labour.
The consolidation of students/young people as core voters of the Labour Party.
The estimated 54% remain vote in 2016.

[DL]

OK thanks everyone for the background about Chester - maybe a better question is why was City of Chester ever a Tory seat in the first place. Its in the north, a medium sized urban area - sounds like the kind of place that could have been a perennial Labour seat in the 60s and 70s...

[MABA 2020]

Great result, looking forward to 2024

[Filuwaúrdjan]

OK thanks everyone for the background about Chester - maybe a better question is why was City of Chester ever a Tory seat in the first place. Its in the north, a medium sized urban area - sounds like the kind of place that could have been a perennial Labour seat in the 60s and 70s...

Historically just a little bit too prosperous, but then there 'was' always a random element to these things: similar things could have been said of other small city and/or large town constituencies that Labour did often win in the 50s, 60s and 70s.* The mention of Liverpool is maybe relevant: North West Cheshire and South West Lancashire were more Conservative-voting than might have been expected in the middle twentieth century, and then became progressively less Conservative-voting than might have been expected in the late twentieth century and beyond.

_{*e.g. Gloucester, Reading and Watford had a vaguely similar SES profiles in the 1960s and early 70s.}