UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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YL
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« Reply #1375 on: June 19, 2022, 06:36:10 AM »

Well, that reception for the Tory candidate in T&H is certainly interesting given some pundits seem to be suggesting the Tories have a chance on hanging on there.

Indeed, though of course hustings audiences aren't very representative of the constituency.  I doubt the pundits really know much.

Quote
(OTOH the bookies made the LibDems clear favourites a while ago and that hasn't changed)

They have actually moved a little bit towards the Tories, but the Lib Dems are still clear favourites.  Not by as much as the Tories were in Chesham & Amersham, mind.

My guess is a Lib Dem win but by less than in North Shropshire.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1376 on: June 19, 2022, 10:32:25 AM »

My hunch is it will either be a very comfortable LibDem win, or perhaps not a win at all.
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #1377 on: June 19, 2022, 03:34:32 PM »

It seems at this point the only result that would turn any heads would be if the lib dems don't win. The Tories losing is a foregone conclusion for most.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1378 on: June 19, 2022, 03:46:39 PM »

No, I don't think this is correct. Everyone knew that e.g. Crewe & Nantwich would be lost by Labour in 2008, but it was still a significant blow when it came - this was also true of by-election defeats suffered by the Major administration and so on. The idea that all the damage is 'priced in' is cope from court 'journalists'.
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Blair
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« Reply #1379 on: June 20, 2022, 12:44:55 PM »

Yeah Crewe is remembered as causing a massive panic after an awful campaign but it was only a 7K majority- Tiverton is very much not this!

For some stupid reason losing a seat like Reading West would actually cause a bigger panic than this will- it will (publicly) be put down to the Liberals machine, the evil media and tractor gate. Smarter Tories in private will be worrying though.
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Blair
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« Reply #1380 on: June 20, 2022, 12:45:49 PM »

It is still insane that a 25K majority being lost without any local issue is seen as normal.
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YL
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« Reply #1381 on: June 20, 2022, 01:03:21 PM »

Anyway, the Lib Dems released some more numbers.  They now claim that they and the Tories are tied on 45%.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1382 on: June 20, 2022, 02:53:48 PM »

Anyway, the Lib Dems released some more numbers.  They now claim that they and the Tories are tied on 45%.

Do they now.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1383 on: June 20, 2022, 04:10:32 PM »

Anyway, the Lib Dems released some more numbers.  They now claim that they and the Tories are tied on 45%.

Do they now.

The result is going to be closer to Chesham & Amersham than North Shropshire, isn’t it?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1384 on: June 21, 2022, 05:33:32 AM »

Anyway, the Lib Dems released some more numbers.  They now claim that they and the Tories are tied on 45%.

Do they now.

The result is going to be closer to Chesham & Amersham than North Shropshire, isn’t it?

Well apparently some Tories are briefing they think they will win it narrowly - then again we had them telling hacks they had held both the above seats *after the polls closed*, so.....
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Blair
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« Reply #1385 on: June 21, 2022, 10:30:30 AM »

Am I right as well that in these sort of ultrasafe seats both parties will have a much sketchier view of where their vote is too…
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1386 on: June 21, 2022, 11:14:15 AM »

Am I right as well that in these sort of ultrasafe seats both parties will have a much sketchier view of where their vote is too…
I would presume so (though given the by-election induced swing I'm not sure prior canvassing would be very accurate anyways). The most prominent example that comes to mind is credible reports that Labour had absolutely no clue who their voters were in Bolsover as well as South Shields only having (I think) a few 100 on record thanks to boundary changes.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1387 on: June 22, 2022, 09:51:08 AM »

Am I right as well that in these sort of ultrasafe seats both parties will have a much sketchier view of where their vote is too…
I would presume so (though given the by-election induced swing I'm not sure prior canvassing would be very accurate anyways). The most prominent example that comes to mind is credible reports that Labour had absolutely no clue who their voters were in Bolsover as well as South Shields only having (I think) a few 100 on record thanks to boundary changes.

No, not really - rather more to do with The King Over The Water (TM) being rather neglectful of local matters whilst he was cosplaying in Westminster. I know for a fact that Labour staff were rather not amused come the 2013 byelection at the decrepit state the CLP had been left in.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1388 on: June 22, 2022, 10:16:16 AM »

Let's just say that issue noted with horror at Bolsover in 2017 was (is?) not an issue unique to that constituency amongst East Midlands constituencies outside the Nottingham City constituencies...
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YL
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« Reply #1389 on: June 22, 2022, 11:07:03 AM »

Am I right as well that in these sort of ultrasafe seats both parties will have a much sketchier view of where their vote is too…
I would presume so (though given the by-election induced swing I'm not sure prior canvassing would be very accurate anyways). The most prominent example that comes to mind is credible reports that Labour had absolutely no clue who their voters were in Bolsover as well as South Shields only having (I think) a few 100 on record thanks to boundary changes.

No, not really - rather more to do with The King Over The Water (TM) being rather neglectful of local matters whilst he was cosplaying in Westminster. I know for a fact that Labour staff were rather not amused come the 2013 byelection at the decrepit state the CLP had been left in.

I read that as saying that they had a few hundred, but only thanks to boundary changes transferring them into the constituency.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1390 on: June 22, 2022, 11:52:16 AM »

Chatter of a by-election in Somerton and Frome. Would be another bruising LD-Con fight but surely the LDs would start out favored.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1391 on: June 22, 2022, 11:59:30 AM »


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TheTide
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« Reply #1392 on: June 22, 2022, 01:39:36 PM »



It's Labour voters who prop up Conservative Clubs in a lot of places, so I hear. Still amusing.
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Blair
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« Reply #1393 on: June 22, 2022, 04:24:15 PM »

It’s not really been discussed but it’s very plausible that if the Lib Dems win it will be down to tactical voting- the Greens got over 2,000 votes in 2019!

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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1394 on: June 22, 2022, 04:43:03 PM »

It’s not really been discussed but it’s very plausible that if the Lib Dems win it will be down to tactical voting- the Greens got over 2,000 votes in 2019!
I mean let’s put it this way, if there wasn’t a by-election does anybody think that the Lib Dems would be anything but a very distant 3rd in 2024? How you separate out tactical voting vs local campaigning can be difficult, but it’s safe to say that there will be a large number of people voting Lib Dem who are not natural supporters of the party (they wouldn’t be getting 35%+ of the vote in a pr system!).
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Torrain
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« Reply #1395 on: June 22, 2022, 05:29:20 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2022, 05:39:05 PM by Torrain »

Tory sources are now briefing that they expect to lose both by-elections, and that the margin will be closer in Wakefield than T&H, which I struggle to see. I guess we've seen stranger things in prior by-elections though.
https://www.ft.com/content/9d8b3793-7953-4f12-896e-9cb60069545a

Quote
One Tory strategist working on the two by-elections said the Liberal Democrats were on course to win Tiverton with a “substantial” majority and Labour would secure Wakefield, albeit by a smaller margin.

The strategist added the by-elections were prompted by scandals surrounding the incumbent Tory MPs and it was natural the party would lose. “Midterm governments also don’t win by-elections,” he said.
Feels blatantly dishonest to claim the government doesn't win midterm by-elections, when Labour haven't made a by-election gain in over a decade, and the Conservatives have made several, starting with Copeland, and ending with Hartlepool a year ago!
(For those of you playing the home game, the last time Labour picked up a seat in a by-election was when Louise Mensch resigned as MP for Corby in 2012, and before that you have to go back to 1997)

*

Labour seems to be trying to do their own expectation setting too:

Quote
“It’s going strong but we are very, very worried about complacency and turnout,” said one member of Sir Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet. “Anything over [a majority of] 1,000 will be a huge achievement.”

But, as you'd expect, not everyone is toeing the party line:
Quote
Another shadow cabinet member said: “Anything less than a 5,000 majority bodes badly for winning back the red wall.”
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #1396 on: June 22, 2022, 11:44:53 PM »



How plausible is it that Tory loyalists are temporarily switching to Lib Dem (or just staying home) just for this specific by-election, purely as a protest against Boris damaging the party's overall prospects?  I would imagine that even if Boris is still leading the party into the next GE they'll all fall back in line (because GEs actually matter), but for now?
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Blair
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« Reply #1397 on: June 23, 2022, 01:19:35 AM »

Very likely on the first- there is a small but significant number of Conservatives who despise the man- some of these people are very traditional old school wets who dislike his politics, but there are also people who just hate the man. It reminds me in a way at the way Gordon Browns vote split through these two reasons.

I think the stay at home factor is more important- it certainly happened in the locals.



How plausible is it that Tory loyalists are temporarily switching to Lib Dem (or just staying home) just for this specific by-election, purely as a protest against Boris damaging the party's overall prospects?  I would imagine that even if Boris is still leading the party into the next GE they'll all fall back in line (because GEs actually matter), but for now?
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Blair
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« Reply #1398 on: June 23, 2022, 01:22:07 AM »

Interesting- the polling suggests a big Wakefield majority (my guess would be around 2-5K).

Something towards the lower end is a ‘normal’ by-election loss for a Government doing badly, but if there vote really falls out the bottom in Wakefield it could be much bigger. As always the vote share will be more interesting and more useful than the top line figures!

Tory sources are now briefing that they expect to lose both by-elections, and that the margin will be closer in Wakefield than T&H, which I struggle to see. I guess we've seen stranger things in prior by-elections though.
https://www.ft.com/content/9d8b3793-7953-4f12-896e-9cb60069545a

Quote
One Tory strategist working on the two by-elections said the Liberal Democrats were on course to win Tiverton with a “substantial” majority and Labour would secure Wakefield, albeit by a smaller margin.

The strategist added the by-elections were prompted by scandals surrounding the incumbent Tory MPs and it was natural the party would lose. “Midterm governments also don’t win by-elections,” he said.
Feels blatantly dishonest to claim the government doesn't win midterm by-elections, when Labour haven't made a by-election gain in over a decade, and the Conservatives have made several, starting with Copeland, and ending with Hartlepool a year ago!
(For those of you playing the home game, the last time Labour picked up a seat in a by-election was when Louise Mensch resigned as MP for Corby in 2012, and before that you have to go back to 1997)

*

Labour seems to be trying to do their own expectation setting too:

Quote
“It’s going strong but we are very, very worried about complacency and turnout,” said one member of Sir Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet. “Anything over [a majority of] 1,000 will be a huge achievement.”

But, as you'd expect, not everyone is toeing the party line:
Quote
Another shadow cabinet member said: “Anything less than a 5,000 majority bodes badly for winning back the red wall.”

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YL
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« Reply #1399 on: June 23, 2022, 01:25:52 AM »

Tory sources are now briefing that they expect to lose both by-elections, and that the margin will be closer in Wakefield than T&H, which I struggle to see. I guess we've seen stranger things in prior by-elections though.
https://www.ft.com/content/9d8b3793-7953-4f12-896e-9cb60069545a

Quote
One Tory strategist working on the two by-elections said the Liberal Democrats were on course to win Tiverton with a “substantial” majority and Labour would secure Wakefield, albeit by a smaller margin.

The strategist added the by-elections were prompted by scandals surrounding the incumbent Tory MPs and it was natural the party would lose. “Midterm governments also don’t win by-elections,” he said.
Feels blatantly dishonest to claim the government doesn't win midterm by-elections, when Labour haven't made a by-election gain in over a decade, and the Conservatives have made several, starting with Copeland, and ending with Hartlepool a year ago!
(For those of you playing the home game, the last time Labour picked up a seat in a by-election was when Louise Mensch resigned as MP for Corby in 2012, and before that you have to go back to 1997)

*

Labour seems to be trying to do their own expectation setting too:

Quote
“It’s going strong but we are very, very worried about complacency and turnout,” said one member of Sir Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet. “Anything over [a majority of] 1,000 will be a huge achievement.”

But, as you'd expect, not everyone is toeing the party line:
Quote
Another shadow cabinet member said: “Anything less than a 5,000 majority bodes badly for winning back the red wall.”


I wouldn't take parties' expectation management that seriously, but I think it's quite possible that the margin in T & H is bigger than that in Wakefield, especially if (as these people seem to be doing) you measure the numerical majority: T & H has a bigger electorate and is likely to have bigger turnout, to the extent that a 4000 majority in Wakefield could be the same percentage margin as a 7000 majority in T & H.

In general T & H feels more unpredictable to me: it could be close either way, but it could also be a big Lib Dem win like North Shropshire, in which case I'd expect the percentage margin to be similar to that in Wakefield.

"Mid term governments don't win by-elections" is nonsense: it is true that the Tories didn't win a single by-election from Richmond 1989 (in which they were very lucky) to Uxbridge 1997, but a quick look at UK by-election history will show that that is an outlier.  Labour don't really have a history of taking previously safe Tory seats in by-elections at all.
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