bill clinton in 1984?

[WalterMitty]

to the surprise of almost all observers, young arkansas governor bill clinton wins the democrat presidential nomination.  the 38 year old governor promises america a 'third way'.  he rejects the 'tax and spend' policies of the democrat party of old, offering instead business friendly solutions.  he also avoids the divisive social issues.  in an obvious swipe at the reagan administration, clinton enthusiastically promises to wake up and work hard for the middle class every day of his presidency.

realizing he needs some experience on his ticket, clinton selects south carolina senator fritz hollings as his running mate.  the 62 year old hollings has served in the senate since 1966 and before that was governor of sc.

how does this election between clinton/hollings and reagan/bush shape up?

[nini2287]

Clinton/Hollings is a very strong ticket, but quite frankly nobody was going to be Reagan in 1984:

Image Link

Reagan/Bush 54% PV 415 EV
Clinton/Hollings 45% PV 123 EV

[True Democrat]

Can I continue the story?

[Lincoln Republican]

The upstart Governor of Arkansas gets his clock cleaned by the old, yet iconic, President.

Reagan/Bush                492
Clinton/Hollings               46

[WalterMitty]

reagan/bush: 54%, 361 EVs
clinton/hollings: 45%, 177 EVs

[WalterMitty]

Can I continue the story?

to 1988?

[True Democrat]

Can I continue the story?

to 1988?

nevermind.

I think Clinton has a chance to make it close.  Remember, Reagan wasn't leading big until the very end of the campaign:

[J. J.]

I think Clinton has a chance to make it close.  Remember, Reagan wasn't leading big until the very end of the campaign:

I can remember being in a political science class in August of 1984.  The professor asked:

"How many you support Reagan."  Half the hands went up.

"How many of you support Mondale."  Half the hands went up.

"How many of you think Mondale will win."  No hands went up.

True story.

[Wakie]

I tend to agree that Reagan was virtually unbeatable in '84.  And frankly Clinton wasn't experienced or battletested enough at that point to run a serious Presidential candidacy.

The only chance he really has is if

1) The Dems run him as their sacrificial lamb
2) He matures political faster and shows the campaigning skill in '84 he showed in '92
3) Reagan's Alzheimer's comes on earlier and 2 days before the election he goes on tv in a cowboy hat w/ a chimp sitting on the desk and declares himself King Ronnie.

[kashifsakhan]

I tend to agree that Reagan was virtually unbeatable in '84.  And frankly Clinton wasn't experienced or battletested enough at that point to run a serious Presidential candidacy.

The only chance he really has is if

1) The Dems run him as their sacrificial lamb
2) He matures political faster and shows the campaigning skill in '84 he showed in '92
3) Reagan's Alzheimer's comes on earlier and 2 days before the election he goes on tv in a cowboy hat w/ a chimp sitting on the desk and declares himself King Ronnie.

I agree.. It would be hard for someone who had only a few years ago been voted out of office in Arkansas to win the nomination, let alone the general. It would be like Daschle getting the nomination and winning the general in '08