Safe R -> Likely R just without the McGrath amounts of money contesting the race.
Stop. Unless you're being sarcastic, this race is Safe R, period.
Oh I don't think there's any conceivable scenario in which Rand loses, but I think Booker could do better than McGrath for sure and possibly better than Grimes in '14/Gray in '16 (40-42%) but his ceiling probably no higher than maybe 44% at best.
Booker would certainly get less than 40%.
If democrats nominate him I could see Paul getting a larger margin of victory than any other republican senatorial candidate got over the past 2 decades.