Who is the strongest Republican AOC can beat?

[wimp]

.

[One Term Floridian]

Lil Marco Polo

[McGarnagle]

A two-term Republican Vice President in 2040

[Pink Panther]

Maybe Mike Pence, maybe, if Trump vehemently campaigns against him.

[With you in spirit]

Either someone really extreme like MTG or Boebert or someone boring and uncharismatic like Larry Hogan.

[Galeel]

I mean I think she can beat pretty much anyone, given the right circumstances.

[Bootes Void]

depends on the type of campaign that is being run and who is the opponent is and how they run it. The answer is no one knows

[SnowLabrador]

I mean I think she can beat pretty much anyone, given the right circumstances.

[OSR stands with Israel]

She would lose to Trump

[Alben Barkley]

Either someone really extreme like MTG or Boebert or someone boring and uncharismatic like Larry Hogan.

Larry Hogan would destroy her. Suburbs would run back to the GOP in droves. Sure he probably wouldn’t get the rural turnout Trump did, but it’s not like they’re gonna vote for AOC! She would get McGoverned.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Either someone really extreme like MTG or Boebert or someone boring and uncharismatic like Larry Hogan.

Larry Hogan would destroy her. Suburbs would run back to the GOP in droves. Sure he probably wouldn’t get the rural turnout Trump did, but it’s not like they’re gonna vote for AOC! She would get McGoverned.

No she wouldn't, the nation is far too polarized for that kind of blowout.

[Left Wing]

Either someone really extreme like MTG or Boebert or someone boring and uncharismatic like Larry Hogan.

Larry Hogan would destroy her. Suburbs would run back to the GOP in droves. Sure he probably wouldn’t get the rural turnout Trump did, but it’s not like they’re gonna vote for AOC! She would get McGoverned.

Hogan +12 in VA imo. just imo  the swingy suburbanites are just waiting for a fat boring republican to be the nominee imo.

[politics_king]

I think AOC should really focus on becoming a United States Senator once Schumer retires. Even kick the tires on a run for Governor of New York, but I think he national brand of politics fits much better as Senator or see if she work her way up in the House leadership. She's still learning the game, she use to be pretty hardcore at the beginning, but she surrounded herself with an experienced team that can help push her message.

[Ancestral Republican]

I think AOC should really focus on becoming a United States Senator once Schumer retires. Even kick the tires on a run for Governor of New York, but I think he national brand of politics fits much better as Senator or see if she work her way up in the House leadership. She's still learning the game, she use to be pretty hardcore at the beginning, but she surrounded herself with an experienced team that can help push her message.

The American electorate will be a lot more progressive in 20 years.

[Medal506]

She would lose to Trump

[With you in spirit]

Either someone really extreme like MTG or Boebert or someone boring and uncharismatic like Larry Hogan.

Larry Hogan would destroy her. Suburbs would run back to the GOP in droves. Sure he probably wouldn’t get the rural turnout Trump did, but it’s not like they’re gonna vote for AOC! She would get McGoverned.

I dunno. Hogan would obviously not drive out Trumpists in droves in places like PA, WI, MI, etc. But I think he probably does better with independents, so that offsets it somewhat. Depending on the organizing operation, she could do fairly well in those states. I'm not convinced that there are enough Bush-era Republicans left to give Hogan an overwhelming victory. He would probably still win, but I think we have a lot of perceptions about AOC based on the media's fearmongering--if she can successfully deliver her message with urgency and passion, I don't think she would do as badly as a lot of people think she would.

[SN2903]

She can't win

[DaleCooper]

Either someone really extreme like MTG or Boebert or someone boring and uncharismatic like Larry Hogan.

Larry Hogan would destroy her. Suburbs would run back to the GOP in droves. Sure he probably wouldn’t get the rural turnout Trump did, but it’s not like they’re gonna vote for AOC! She would get McGoverned.

No she wouldn't, the nation is far too polarized for that kind of blowout.

She would win all the Democratic strongholds, but by less than Biden or Hillary, and all of the competitive states would go to Hogan, including states like New Hampshire and Maine at large.

[Roll Roons]

Either someone really extreme like MTG or Boebert or someone boring and uncharismatic like Larry Hogan.

Larry Hogan would destroy her. Suburbs would run back to the GOP in droves. Sure he probably wouldn’t get the rural turnout Trump did, but it’s not like they’re gonna vote for AOC! She would get McGoverned.

No she wouldn't, the nation is far too polarized for that kind of blowout.

She would win all the Democratic strongholds, but by less than Biden or Hillary, and all of the competitive states would go to Hogan, including states like New Hampshire and Maine at large.

Memes aside, I wonder how Hogan would do in Virginia. I doubt he'd actually win, but he's probably as good a fit for the state as any Republican could possibly be. He wouldn't win Maryland, but might lose it by 15-20 rather than the 33 point thrashing that Trump got. New Jersey, Delaware and Connecticut would be within single digits.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Either someone really extreme like MTG or Boebert or someone boring and uncharismatic like Larry Hogan.

Larry Hogan would destroy her. Suburbs would run back to the GOP in droves. Sure he probably wouldn’t get the rural turnout Trump did, but it’s not like they’re gonna vote for AOC! She would get McGoverned.

No she wouldn't, the nation is far too polarized for that kind of blowout.

She would win all the Democratic strongholds, but by less than Biden or Hillary, and all of the competitive states would go to Hogan, including states like New Hampshire and Maine at large.

McGovern lost by 23%, she would lose, but not by that amount. She would not get "McGovern'd."

[DaleCooper]

Either someone really extreme like MTG or Boebert or someone boring and uncharismatic like Larry Hogan.

Larry Hogan would destroy her. Suburbs would run back to the GOP in droves. Sure he probably wouldn’t get the rural turnout Trump did, but it’s not like they’re gonna vote for AOC! She would get McGoverned.

No she wouldn't, the nation is far too polarized for that kind of blowout.

She would win all the Democratic strongholds, but by less than Biden or Hillary, and all of the competitive states would go to Hogan, including states like New Hampshire and Maine at large.

McGovern lost by 23%, she would lose, but not by that amount. She would not get "McGovern'd."

Hence the reason I said she would still win the Democratic strongholds. But against a reasonable Republican like Hogan, AOC would lose by as much as a candidate in the polarized era can lose by.

[Ancestral Republican]

Either someone really extreme like MTG or Boebert or someone boring and uncharismatic like Larry Hogan.

Larry Hogan would destroy her. Suburbs would run back to the GOP in droves. Sure he probably wouldn’t get the rural turnout Trump did, but it’s not like they’re gonna vote for AOC! She would get McGoverned.

No she wouldn't, the nation is far too polarized for that kind of blowout.

She would win all the Democratic strongholds, but by less than Biden or Hillary, and all of the competitive states would go to Hogan, including states like New Hampshire and Maine at large.

McGovern lost by 23%, she would lose, but not by that amount. She would not get "McGovern'd."

Hence the reason I said she would still win the Democratic strongholds. But against a reasonable Republican like Hogan, AOC would lose by as much as a candidate in the polarized era can lose by.

Larry Hogan is not some Republican titan. Most of the base doesn't give a rats ass about him, turnout in conservative areas would be way down and the race would be a tossup or lean D.

[DaleCooper]

Either someone really extreme like MTG or Boebert or someone boring and uncharismatic like Larry Hogan.

Larry Hogan would destroy her. Suburbs would run back to the GOP in droves. Sure he probably wouldn’t get the rural turnout Trump did, but it’s not like they’re gonna vote for AOC! She would get McGoverned.

No she wouldn't, the nation is far too polarized for that kind of blowout.

She would win all the Democratic strongholds, but by less than Biden or Hillary, and all of the competitive states would go to Hogan, including states like New Hampshire and Maine at large.

McGovern lost by 23%, she would lose, but not by that amount. She would not get "McGovern'd."

Hence the reason I said she would still win the Democratic strongholds. But against a reasonable Republican like Hogan, AOC would lose by as much as a candidate in the polarized era can lose by.

Larry Hogan is not some Republican titan. Most of the base doesn't give a rats ass about him, turnout in conservative areas would be way down and the race would be a tossup or lean D.

Conservatives are not going to abstain from voting in a Republican vs. AOC election. I agree he'd never win a presidential primary, but in this hypothetical where he's already the Republican candidate, he'd have the conservative and evangelical propaganda machines working overtime for him. The base will turn out. I'm sure AOC's base would show up and vote too, but elections aren't as simple as people like Rachel Bitecofer would have us believe. Persuasion is a real thing in politics and AOC and her policies are unpopular while Hogan would most likely be seen as very reasonable by comparison. It'd be quite easy for him to simultaneously work up the base with "Defeat Socialism, Vote Hogan" rhetoric while emphasizing his record as a blue-state governor to moderate voters.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

AOC's social/cultural policies make her a bad GE candidate. The only socialists that can win are economic populists who don't put an emphasis on social/cultural issues. This is why Bernie did so well and why I'm afraid there won't be another socialist like him who can communicate as effectively as he did.
M4A and other progressive economic policies are widely popular, but AOC ideas about racism, etc. are not.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

She would lose to Trump

Ironically, Trump might be the only one who can beat her.

DeSantis however has a good shot too of beating her, but a lot of GOP candidates simply are less strong and won't have enthusiastic turn-out, and I don't think moderate suburbanites are going to magically return to the GOP after what happened, even if someone like AOC is the nominee. If she was the nominee, she would probably "moderate" her message as well.

If AOC had to run against Trump, AOC could use a different tactic, and she doesn't have to "moderate" her message, because the dynamics of the race would be completely different. Than she will get more moderate the moment she'll be in office or is being declared the winner, but never during the campaign.

Like AOC would never win if she moved to the center after winning the primaries if she had to run against Trump. If Trump makes no effort to win moderates or independents, AOC could win them over by just pointing out Trump's mistakes and controversies and his stances and what turmoil he caused in the political landscape. Many people are disgusted with Trump. Even them not voting for Trump is a vote for AOC. But she has no incentive to move to the left, because it will be more important to rally up her base, and get her base to shore turn-out, especially among demographics she'll be favoured and strong with: "urban centers, millenials / gen z / gen x, hispanics, women, name it). By doing that at the end, she'll turn out more voters than by moving to the left by competing for the last moderate voters, because people made their mind up about Trump, it's not going to change. They either like him and will vote for him at any cost, or they don't. There are some that might not like both, but if AOC is on the ballot, i think it's unlikely they'll vote for her, whatever she does because of her name and reputation.

So, her strategy is to double down on being very left-wing and progressive, because the chance of winning will be much higher. The Democratic base would move along. Because no-one wants to see a second term of Trump, and if they know the risk is there, they'll move along. The more differences you have with Trump, the better, and it would be important to make clear that distinction and those differences (it's a strategy, not what I believe in, but if i was a strategist, i would certainly encourage AOC to move in that direction for her).