NH - Saint Anselm: Harris at 45% in Biden-free primary, 71% of Rs want Trump to play important role

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Images/NHIOP/SACSurveyBook321.pdf

March 4-6
N.B. I think this contains independents, as the rest of the sample consists of 86 self-identified "swing voters."

"Do you think Donald Trump should continue to play an important role in the Republican
Party, or is it time for the Party to move on?"
370 Republican likely voters

Important role 71%
Move on 22%
Unsure 28%

"If Joe Biden decides not to run for re-election, do you think the Democratic Party should
nominate Kamala Harris for president, or would you support someone else?"
418 Democratic likely voters

Harris 45%
Someone else 26%
Unsure 30%

[TML]

Remember that exit polls from the 2020 NH Republican primary indicated that 55% of all Republican primary voters that year in NH felt more loyal to Trump himself, compared to 39% who felt more loyal to the party as a whole. These numbers seem to suggest that Trump’s standing among NH Republicans has only increased since last year.

[President Johnson]

Kamala very, very likely has the nomination if Joe Biden retires; however, I think the public greatly underestimates the president seeking a second term. If his condition is similar to today, Uncle Joe is going to run.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The likely to R nominee is DeSANTIS whom is Trump in disguise and the 2024 Senate map in in D's favor, the only way Rs win 2024 if the win the House by 30 and try to impeach Biden, which isn't gonna happen when Ds are ahead on Generic ballot by 8

A Prez can only be impeached and convicted on his own criminal negligence not a relative negligence that's why the Trump AG didn't move forward on Hunter Biden probe, it has nothing to do with Biden himself

Hannity can want Biden impeached all he wants, it's a campaign issue but not a legal proceeding

[VBM]

Kamala very, very likely has the nomination if Joe Biden retires; however, I think the public greatly underestimates the president seeking a second term. If his condition is similar to today, Uncle Joe is going to run.

Using this poll to say that she is “very, very likely” is foolish. This poll doesn’t even offer up an actual challenger. It’s just Harris vs “someone else”.

[BlueSwan]

Kamala very, very likely has the nomination if Joe Biden retires; however, I think the public greatly underestimates the president seeking a second term. If his condition is similar to today, Uncle Joe is going to run.

Using this poll to say that she is “very, very likely” is foolish. This poll doesn’t even offer up an actual challenger. It’s just Harris vs “someone else”.

I agree. I don't think this is a particular amazing poll for Harris, given that she is the vice-president to a currently popular incumbent and that many voters will just show their support for the current administration in a poll of this type - especially three years out when nobody even knows who might be in the running.

[Skill and Chance]

Kamala very, very likely has the nomination if Joe Biden retires; however, I think the public greatly underestimates the president seeking a second term. If his condition is similar to today, Uncle Joe is going to run.

Using this poll to say that she is “very, very likely” is foolish. This poll doesn’t even offer up an actual challenger. It’s just Harris vs “someone else”.

I agree. I don't think this is a particular amazing poll for Harris, given that she is the vice-president to a currently popular incumbent and that many voters will just show their support for the current administration in a poll of this type - especially three years out when nobody even knows who might be in the running.

This.  Harris is by no means a lock and probably only a narrow favorite for the 2024 nomination as of today, primarily because some of her strongest competition will be dissuaded from running (think 2016).  Nevertheless, if she handles debates like she did in 2020, she will be in trouble. 

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Using this poll to say that she is “very, very likely” is foolish. This poll doesn’t even offer up an actual challenger. It’s just Harris vs “someone else”.

I agree. I don't think this is a particular amazing poll for Harris, given that she is the vice-president to a currently popular incumbent and that many voters will just show their support for the current administration in a poll of this type - especially three years out when nobody even knows who might be in the running.

This.  Harris is by no means a lock and probably only a narrow favorite for the 2024 nomination as of today, primarily because some of her strongest competition will be dissuaded from running (think 2016).  Nevertheless, if she handles debates like she did in 2020, she will be in trouble. 

Unless the Biden administration is unpopular in 2024, who do you guys think will even run against her? Much less even have a chance of winning the Democratic nomination?

Also, Harris's performance in the 2019 debates is irrelevant. She performed well in the VP debate against Pence and in 2024, she will have her VP track record to run on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kamala very, very likely has the nomination if Joe Biden retires; however, I think the public greatly underestimates the president seeking a second term. If his condition is similar to today, Uncle Joe is going to run.

Using this poll to say that she is “very, very likely” is foolish. This poll doesn’t even offer up an actual challenger. It’s just Harris vs “someone else”.

I agree. I don't think this is a particular amazing poll for Harris, given that she is the vice-president to a currently popular incumbent and that many voters will just show their support for the current administration in a poll of this type - especially three years out when nobody even knows who might be in the running.

This.  Harris is by no means a lock and probably only a narrow favorite for the 2024 nomination as of today, primarily because some of her strongest competition will be dissuaded from running (think 2016).  Nevertheless, if she handles debates like she did in 2020, she will be in trouble.  

Harris isn't a candidate, I keep saying this, Biden is our Nominee, the media keep Harris in news for ratings ONLY

[Skill and Chance]

Using this poll to say that she is “very, very likely” is foolish. This poll doesn’t even offer up an actual challenger. It’s just Harris vs “someone else”.

I agree. I don't think this is a particular amazing poll for Harris, given that she is the vice-president to a currently popular incumbent and that many voters will just show their support for the current administration in a poll of this type - especially three years out when nobody even knows who might be in the running.

This.  Harris is by no means a lock and probably only a narrow favorite for the 2024 nomination as of today, primarily because some of her strongest competition will be dissuaded from running (think 2016).  Nevertheless, if she handles debates like she did in 2020, she will be in trouble. 

Unless the Biden administration is unpopular in 2024, who do you guys think will even run against her? Much less even have a chance of winning the Democratic nomination?

Also, Harris's performance in the 2019 debates is irrelevant. She performed well in the VP debate against Pence and in 2024, she will have her VP track record to run on.

It suggests the odds of a significant error in the 2023-24 debates are pretty high.  I agree she likely won't draw the strongest opponents, though.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

It suggests the odds of a significant error in the 2023-24 debates are pretty high.  I agree she likely won't draw the strongest opponents, though.

No, it doesn't. Like I said, she did well in the VP debate against Mike Pence. Also, if she's running for Prez in 2024, she will have a skilled debate team that will coach her. Her 2019 debates are irrelevant.