Yukon Territorial Election - April 12, 2021

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/1370471127898857475?s=19

An election was due for this spring - the last was in November 2016 in which Sandy Silver's Liberal Party won a majority government. Silver is still the Premier and party leader. The Yukon is notoriously hard to poll and has around 30000 people, to my knowledge. This was the most recent poll:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1365076569493037059?s=19

[Hatman 🍁]

will we get results in Yukon or Newfoundland first?

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/1370471127898857475?s=19
An election was due for this spring - the last was in November 2016 in which Sandy Silver's Liberal Party won a majority government. Silver is still the Premier and party leader. The Yukon is notoriously hard to poll and has around 30000 people, to my knowledge. This was the most recent poll:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1365076569493037059?s=19

It must be a pain to poll Yukon lol. You need like 3% of the electorate to respond to the poll, which must be incredibly difficult. And American pollsters say it's hard to get a good response to a similar sized poll for 150 million voters.

[DC Al Fine]

will we get results in Yukon or Newfoundland first?

My money's on Yukon

[IceAgeComing]

The last pre-campaign poll before the last Yukon Election was something ridiculous: 22% Liberal, 11% NDP, 6% PC, 61% Undecided which shows the issues in particular - a lot of voters will either say they don't know or won't tell you and while in other places you can just call a lot more people you sort of can't in Yukon.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't trust any Yukon polling.

[beesley]

I wouldn't trust any Yukon polling.

Agreed - I just posted it to get the conversation going. Bear in mind how people say Alaska is very difficult to poll... Yukon suffers from the same problem, but with the even bigger problem of its small population.

[lilTommy]

Just before the election was called the then current Liberal MLA for Mayo-Tatchun, Don Hutton, left the Liberals to sit as an Indie. But then endorsed the NDP and specifically Kate White (the NDP leader)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yukon-liberal-mla-don-hutton-to-leave-party-1.5941006

Mayo-Tatchun is one of the 8 rural-non Whitehorse seats, It looks to be one of if not the largest geographic riding. It's history is actually very much an NDP seat. 5 of the 7 elections the seat was carried by the NDP. Eric Fairclough who was elected as a New Democrat in 96, moved to the Liberals and won again in 2006. (party switching in the Yukon looks to be much more common then in the south). Was then defeated by the NDP in 2011.
The NDP is running Patty Wallingham an Indigenous athlete (curler who represented Yukon at the scotties) the Liberals have Jeremy Harper a First Nations Councilor and a Recreation Coordinator. The Yukon Party is running Peter Grundmanis the Executive Director of the Yukon Schools Athletic Association (YSAA), but he lives in Whitehorse. Funny all come from athletics

[lilTommy]

For those who care about make up of the slate of candidates:

for the NDP they have:
- 13 female candidate, 68% of the slate, the largest in Yukon history
- a Third of the candidates are Indigenous, so 6 if my math is right
- 4 from the LGBTQ+
- 2 non-indigenous POC

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is running Patty Wallingham an Indigenous athlete (curler who represented Yukon at the scotties)

Nice! I didn't realize this. Usually curlers run for the Tories or Liberals. (as do most athletes TBH). Fun fact: Greg Smith, who just skipped Newfoundland at the Brier is also pretty political (ran for St. John's city council last year), and is pretty left wing (also only the second ever openly LGTBQ skip at the Brier). Hopefully he runs for the NDP in the future.

[beesley]

Purely on current nominations, the NDP is the only party contesting every riding, but I suspect there are a couple of remaining nomination meetings to be held. The Liberals have no candidate in Takhini-Kopper King, Kate White's seat, and the Yukon Party have no candidate in Vuntut Gwitchin, where they only lost by seven votes last time. The main reason why the latter scenario might stand is the lack of a person to stand - there are fewer than 200 electors there as the riding boundaries are coterminous with that of the FN community of the same name.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, I can easily see YP not running in Vuntut Gwitchin. Doesn't matter what happened last time, the community is so small, that the party label doesn't matter.

[beesley]

will we get results in Yukon or Newfoundland first?

will we get results in Yukon or Newfoundland first?

My money's on Yukon

https://twitter.com/NTVNewsNL/status/1374132465829285897?s=19

There's your (provisional) answer.

[beesley]

The Yukon NDP have launched an 81-page document detailing their platform. I am impressed with this style of politics (but not all of the platform, though I like most of it) and hope it will benefit them, but a) I'm not sure it will and b) we won't find out until the results are out.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yukon-ndp-kate-white-2021-platform-1.5970472

There's a lot of so-called fly-in-fly-out workers in the Yukon and their taxes would be raised - does anyone know how many of them can/will be voting in this election?

[lilTommy]

The Yukon NDP have launched an 81-page document detailing their platform. I am impressed with this style of politics (but not all of the platform, though I like most of it) and hope it will benefit them, but a) I'm not sure it will and b) we won't find out until the results are out.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yukon-ndp-kate-white-2021-platform-1.5970472

There's a lot of so-called fly-in-fly-out workers in the Yukon and their taxes would be raised - does anyone know how many of them can/will be voting in this election?

Apparently fly-in-fly out workers cannot vote. Makes sense, they have no permanent address in the Yukon.

from a couple years ago, opinion piece: https://www.yukon-news.com/opinion/time-for-a-payroll-tax-on-fly-in-fly-out-workers/

[beesley]

Today's the day. There hasn't been a single poll released since I created the thread, but I doubt if there were one that it would be particularly useful or accurate.

Polls close at 8pm local time / 10pm Eastern, and it looks as if things should go smoothly and results won't be out too long after that. Any relevant information should be found here: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's the day. There hasn't been a single poll released since I created the thread, but I doubt if there were one that it would be particularly useful or accurate.

Polls close at 8pm local time / 10pm Eastern, and it looks as if things should go smoothly and results won't be out too long after that. Any relevant information should be found here: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/North.

There is a 3 hour difference between the Yukon and Eastern, so polls are closing at 11pm EDT.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

T-minus 10 minutes.

Orange avatar is ready to go

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How quickly does counting usually take in Yukon?

[Njall]

Vuntut Gwitchen appears to have ended in a tie: 78 votes each for the Liberal and NDP candidates.

[trebor204]

Vuntut Gwitchen appears to have ended in a tie: 78 votes each for the Liberal and NDP candidates.

It the riding ends in a draw, a random draw will determine the winner.

156 votes in a riding with  185 eligible voters

Somehow CBC is giving the result to the Liberal, instead of a 'TIE'

[Njall]

CBC projects a minority government - could still be Yukon Party or Liberal

[trebor204]

Final Results

LIB - 8
YP - 8
NDP - 2
TIE - 1 (NDP/LIB)

[beesley]

Vuntut Gwitchen appears to have ended in a tie: 78 votes each for the Liberal and NDP candidates.

It the riding ends in a draw, a random draw will determine the winner.

156 votes in a riding with  185 eligible voters

Somehow CBC is giving the result to the Liberal, instead of a 'TIE'

I've seen this in Federal elections, they usually allocate a tie to the incumbent as normally it isn't the final result.

[Benjamin Frank]

CBC-TV anyway is reporting the turnout incorrectly.  They've announced it at 80%, but they must be basing this on the 2016 registered vote count.  While the total number of voters is roughly the same as in 2016, there are over 4,000 additional registered voters. Total turnout is actually around 65%