Sabato Rankings for Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2022-gubernatorial-races-a-baseline/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Baker goes down

[If my soul was made of stone]

Likely D CA is pretty daring, and I'm not sure if the GOP could really pull it off despite what they have going for them, but I can respect it. As I've expressed before, Maryland as only Lean D seems quite bearish to me, especially as they mention the "Lt. Gov curse" there in the article itself, and when potentially wonky contests like Connecticut and Rhode Island are at Likely.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

MN and CA shouldn't be the same color. Same with NV and MD.

[Roll Roons]

This far out, these are reasonable. Sabato's probably the best of the big three forecasters.

[Sir Mohamed]

None but HI as Safe D? Lol.

CA, RI and NY are Safe D and OR is Likely D.

[Xing]

Much better than Cook's, but definitely some questionable ones here.

-OR/VA (lol) should not be in the same category as MI
-CA/NY are Safe D, the end
-I would switch OH and SD, honestly
-I'd also switch CT/RI and MD

I could nitpick a bit more, but those are the ones which stood out to me.

[Meatball Ron]

Normally I think Sabato has the best ratings, but a handful of states stand out here to me as too pessimistic for Dems - namely CA, NY, MD, and OR. I understand Newsom and Cuomo are both in pretty weak spots right now, but these states simply will not elect a Republican statewide.

Otherwise, these are pretty reasonable to me. If I were looking on the flip side at ratings that might be too optimistic for Dems, I might shift NV to Toss-Up and TX to Safe R but I think these ratings are generally appropriate.

Forecasters should just let themselves put a N/A hedge rating on NH and MA rather than trying to find a happy medium. MA is Safe R with Baker, Safe D without. NH is Safe R with Sununu, Toss-Up without. We don't know what either of these folks will do yet.

[MT Treasurer]

These are fairly good, my only major disagreement with this is NV and MI being in the same category as VA and MD. I’d also move a few of those Likely D states to Safe D, but it’s a pretty good map overall. Miles ahead of Cook's.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I think Baker goes down

With 70% approval. lol

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Normally I think Sabato has the best ratings, but a handful of states stand out here to me as too pessimistic for Dems - namely CA, NY, MD, and OR. I understand Newsom and Cuomo are both in pretty weak spots right now, but these states simply will not elect a Republican statewide.

Otherwise, these are pretty reasonable to me. If I were looking on the flip side at ratings that might be too optimistic for Dems, I might shift NV to Toss-Up and TX to Safe R but I think these ratings are generally appropriate.

Forecasters should just let themselves put a N/A hedge rating on NH and MA rather than trying to find a happy medium. MA is Safe R with Baker, Safe D without. NH is Safe R with Sununu, Toss-Up without. We don't know what either of these folks will do yet.

same thing with VT

[Meatball Ron]

Normally I think Sabato has the best ratings, but a handful of states stand out here to me as too pessimistic for Dems - namely CA, NY, MD, and OR. I understand Newsom and Cuomo are both in pretty weak spots right now, but these states simply will not elect a Republican statewide.

Otherwise, these are pretty reasonable to me. If I were looking on the flip side at ratings that might be too optimistic for Dems, I might shift NV to Toss-Up and TX to Safe R but I think these ratings are generally appropriate.

Forecasters should just let themselves put a N/A hedge rating on NH and MA rather than trying to find a happy medium. MA is Safe R with Baker, Safe D without. NH is Safe R with Sununu, Toss-Up without. We don't know what either of these folks will do yet.

same thing with VT

That's fair, though I think a) Scott's odds of running for reelection are a lot higher than Baker's / Sununu's right now b) VT is quirky enough that it may not be as much of a slam dunk for Ds as MA/MD in the event that Scott does retire

[AGA]

I can understand being extra cautions in ratings since 2022 is a long time from now, but the elections in VA and NJ are this year. I can't think of any reason why McAuliffe and Murphy would lose. I would consider them Safe D along with CA and NY (Cuomo wouldn't make it past the primary).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Baker goes down

With 70% approval. lol

The only INCUMBENTs that's art unbeatable are Reynolds, Abbott and DeSantis due to Rubio. DeSantis will lose in 2024 Prez Election since he is running with Scott that almost cost him the Election in 2018

I support all Ds I don't like Baker, let's see a poll outside Approvals

Yes my Predictions are bold, but I screwed up in 2008/12 on FL, with Biden at 54% Anything can happen in a D yr

[Frenchrepublican]

These ratings are quite good, they should probably push some likely races toward the safe category but otherwise it seems right.

[Canis]

These ratings at this point are almost perfect, I don't see why OR is Lean D Likely D would be acceptable I guess since it'll be an open election but I really don't see OR Gov flipping. Besides that, it's pretty much exactly what I have right now. I'd also put MD as Likely D I don't see any Republican winning this race unless the democrat has some huge scandal with Hogan being term-limited. Their reason for having IL as Likely D is pretty weak to me just because IL rejected a tax initiative in the 2020 election doesn't mean that Pritzkers unpopular lol but I don't live in IL but all the signs to me indicate that Pritzkers safe. I agree with CA and NY as likely D though I doubt Newsom goes down in a recall or in 2022 but there is some uncertainty. Cuomo's obviously in some deep sh!t right now wheater or not he runs for reelection or can make it through the primary at this point is yet to be seen but if he makes it to the general the GOP will have their best shot at winning the NY Governorship in decades that's still a lot of If's tho so likely d, for now, seems like a good rating.

[coloradocowboi]

These ratings are delusional. Republicans aren't winning California, New York, Illinois, Colorado, or Oregon.

[EastwoodS]

These ratings are delusional. Republicans aren't winning California, New York, Illinois, Colorado, or Oregon.

Where does it say that? Blue=Democrat; Red=Republicans, if you’re new to this or maybe I just need to remind you?

[User2836]

Obviously, he's way too hesitant to go Safe on many of these. Colorado, New Mexico, New Jersey, California, New York, Illinois, and I would argue even Minnesota are all safe for now.

Same with Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts for the Republicans if the incumbents run again.

As for Maryland, it's realistically Safe too. If he's too hesitant to start a flip off Safe, at least Likely D.

I personally would also start Florida off as Lean R. They may just pull it off this time.

[User2836]

Ohio is also Safe.

[EastwoodS]

Obviously, he's way too hesitant to go Safe on many of these. Colorado, New Mexico, New Jersey, California, New York, Illinois, and I would argue even Minnesota are all safe for now.

Same with Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts for the Republicans if the incumbents run again.

As for Maryland, it's realistically Safe too. If he's too hesitant to start a flip off Safe, at least Likely D.

I personally would also start Florida off as Lean R. They may just pull it off this time.

[/b]
May pull what off?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I actually mostly agree. I would shift a couple ratings one way or the other here and there but nothing is really outright objectionable. Okay, maybe he's a little too pessimistic about California and Virginia.

[User2836]

Obviously, he's way too hesitant to go Safe on many of these. Colorado, New Mexico, New Jersey, California, New York, Illinois, and I would argue even Minnesota are all safe for now.

Same with Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts for the Republicans if the incumbents run again.

As for Maryland, it's realistically Safe too. If he's too hesitant to start a flip off Safe, at least Likely D.

I personally would also start Florida off as Lean R. They may just pull it off this time.

May pull what off?

Nikki Fried maybe could win?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Obviously, he's way too hesitant to go Safe on many of these. Colorado, New Mexico, New Jersey, California, New York, Illinois, and I would argue even Minnesota are all safe for now.

Same with Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts for the Republicans if the incumbents run again.

As for Maryland, it's realistically Safe too. If he's too hesitant to start a flip off Safe, at least Likely D.

I personally would also start Florida off as Lean R. They may just pull it off this time.

MN is lean, not safe. FL is safe R.

Otherwise, I agree with you.

[EastwoodS]

Obviously, he's way too hesitant to go Safe on many of these. Colorado, New Mexico, New Jersey, California, New York, Illinois, and I would argue even Minnesota are all safe for now.

Same with Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts for the Republicans if the incumbents run again.

As for Maryland, it's realistically Safe too. If he's too hesitant to start a flip off Safe, at least Likely D.

I personally would also start Florida off as Lean R. They may just pull it off this time.

May pull what off?

Nikki Fried maybe could win?

Not in FL, trends in that state in since 2012 have just been brutal. All of the older demographics are dying and getting replaced with more Republican leaning transplants and Fl was 8 pts to the right of the nation. I don’t see how how the FL Democrats, who are bankrupt, btw even get within 5 points. If they’re smart, they’ll leave FL alone to Missourize and move on to keeping other states in their column.