How "Safe" is your congressional district?

[Bacon King]

On paper my current district is extremely safe for the Democratic Party. Dollar Bill however had something to say about that and proceeded over the past few years to give everyone a reason to kick him out.

[Nhoj]

WI-7 is likely safe for my rep tell he retires hes been in the seat for nearly 40 years i believe im not entirely sure hes immune from a landslide as he only got 60% this last election against the republican but i dont think hes ever going down so probably option 2 and the gop has no real talent up here from what i can tell. now once he retires id rate the district as likely dem.

[Smash255]

Well if King decides to run for Senate in 2010, we could have a pretty tough fight provided both sides  The GOP has a fairly solid registration advantage in the district, however that advantage is shrinking.  After the 2000 census the district was gerrymandered a bit in the GOP's favor.  Expect the opposite to happen after the 2010 census.  New Census + Dem gains in the state Senate + surrounding districts being solidly Democratic = more Democratic 3rd.

[JWHart]

IL-01

I suppose Ahn Cao proves there's no such thing as an "Option 1" seat, but this is, at best, 1.25.

[Хahar 🤔]

CA-15 is a very liberal district (Consists of parts of San Jose and its suburbs) and will probably elect Mike Honda until he retires or dies.  However, as late as 1998, the district elected a moderate Republican (Tom Campbell), so its not 100% safe after Honda leaves. 

It should stay D, I think. There's no shortage of Democrats around here.

Yeah.  Maybe if Campbell ran again he could make it competitive, but I'm not sure anyone remembers him.  Besides, he looks like he's thinking of running for governor.

Steve Poizner, if for some reason he ran (which he wouldn't) could make this an interesting race.  He did very well when he ran against Ira Ruskin in 2004, and has buckets of money.  Wouldn't stand a chance against Honda, but in an open seat race with a nasty Democratic primary I can see him making it close. Of course, he won't ever run here so it doesn't matter.

If for some reason Honda retired or was appointed Secretary of Education,  who do you see as Democratic candidates?  I'm thinking maybe Ruskin if he decided to carpetbag a little, Joe Simitian, and former San Jose Vice Mayor Cindy Chavez. 

Campbell's election has always puzzled me; I'm not old enough to remember it. I've always chalked it up to "special elections are weird". Poizner could make it interesting, but that doesn't matter. He's got bigger things than the House.

I think that Simitian is the hier apparent here. If Honda retires after a few more terms, Assemblyman-elect Paul Fong could come into the picture.

[catmando]

Fl-14 Connie Mack IV (R).
This is one of the safest GOP districts in the country. The last time the majority county in the district, Lee, voted for a Democrat for president was 1944. The last time a Democrat represented the area in Congress was 1966, and that was due to the district configuration.

This year, Connie was facing a well-known Republican state senator running as an independent and a Democrat in a three-way race and still won with 60% of the vote. Safe as safe can get for the GOP.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

VA-02 has gone from a safe Republican district to a swing district with a slight Republican lean since 2002.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

NC-02 is safe as long as Etheridge(D) wants unless he is caught with a dead woman or a live boy. After that though I expect there to be a tough battle to raplace him. Johnston is the largest GOP county in the district and it is heavily Republican. There are parts of Wake in it but I am not sure exactly what and how it went though I assume its Democratic now. The district gave Bush 55% probably was more like 50-50 this time but I haven't found out yet if Mccain or Obama won it. 

[Psychic Octopus]

Ca 10, Ellen Tauscher. Pretty safe for democrats, not immune to landslides. She wins only with the support of moderate Republicans. The district is the district version of new hampshire.

[True Democrat]

It was a lot more safe (for the Republican) since Obama was leading the ticket.

[The Ex-Factor]

My seat, CA-15, Mike Honda, is pretty much guaranteed Democrat nowadays. This place is too socially liberal for the Republican party.

However, if there was ever a situation where a far left social/economic liberal Democrat ran against a social liberal/economic moderate Republican, I can see the Republican having a shot. We're also pretty rich.

[Cylon Candidate]

My seat, CA-15, Mike Honda, is pretty much guaranteed Democrat nowadays. This place is too socially liberal for the Republican party.

However, if there was ever a situation where a far left social/economic liberal Democrat ran against a social liberal/economic moderate Republican, I can see the Republican having a shot. We're also pretty rich.

You're from CA-15 too?  We're multiplying! 

[Meeker]

With the current incumbent WA-06 is certainly Option 2 and borderline Option 1. Whenever Dicks dies or retires the seat should be fairly competitive - although the Democrat would be favored partially due to the make-up of the seat and partially because the Republicans don't have a very good farm team.

[Ogre Mage]

I live in a swing district -- WA-3.  The major population center of the district, Clark County (which includes Vancouver, WA), is a swing area with a small-to-modest Republican lean.  The second largest county in the district, Thurston, is a fairly solid Democratic county.  The rest of the district ranges from modestly Democratic to staunchly Republican (Lewis County).  The population includes a number of extremely conservative rural voters to the far-left inhabitants of Evergreen St. College.  Our district also includes the state capital, Olympia.  It is a relatively low-income district, with few important businesses.  I might argue it is the weakest congressional power base in the state, although WA-4, which covers central Washington, is weak as well.

The result is a true swing district in theory.  In actual practice, incumbent protection has been the general trend.  The current congressman, Brian Baird, has been careful to run as a swing/moderate Democrat. 

[Хahar 🤔]

My seat, CA-15, Mike Honda, is pretty much guaranteed Democrat nowadays. This place is too socially liberal for the Republican party.

However, if there was ever a situation where a far left social/economic liberal Democrat ran against a social liberal/economic moderate Republican, I can see the Republican having a shot. We're also pretty rich.

You're from CA-15 too?  We're multiplying! 

Hooray! Three of us!

I don't see the views of the Democrat being an issue, really. When was the last time you heard about Joyce Stoer Cordi's?

[Franzl]

IL-12....ummm....option 1.

Assuming Costello is the Democrat. I imagine it would be slightly more competitive otherwise, but still lean DEM, I think.

[The Ex-Factor]

My seat, CA-15, Mike Honda, is pretty much guaranteed Democrat nowadays. This place is too socially liberal for the Republican party.

However, if there was ever a situation where a far left social/economic liberal Democrat ran against a social liberal/economic moderate Republican, I can see the Republican having a shot. We're also pretty rich.

You're from CA-15 too?  We're multiplying! 

Heh, I should have bothered to read the thread, didn't see you two already having an extended conversation about our district. My bad..where you guys from? Berryessa man here, probably the most boring region in the most boring big city in America.

Not much to add to what you guys said except that I wasn't too impressed with Chavez's mayoral run and can't see her winning the post-Honda Democratic primaries, which hopefully will be a long time from now.

[Cylon Candidate]

My seat, CA-15, Mike Honda, is pretty much guaranteed Democrat nowadays. This place is too socially liberal for the Republican party.

However, if there was ever a situation where a far left social/economic liberal Democrat ran against a social liberal/economic moderate Republican, I can see the Republican having a shot. We're also pretty rich.

You're from CA-15 too?  We're multiplying! 

Heh, I should have bothered to read the thread, didn't see you two already having an extended conversation about our district. My bad..where you guys from? Berryessa man here, probably the most boring region in the most boring big city in America.

Not much to add to what you guys said except that I wasn't too impressed with Chavez's mayoral run and can't see her winning the post-Honda Democratic primaries, which hopefully will be a long time from now.

I'm from Los Gatos.

Chevez probably would have to have the non-San Jose vote split in the primaries for her to win.  Not too easy.

The Democrat would have to be a social conservative in order to have a chance to lose here, or have some insane view that hurt the computer industry. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'm torn between 1 and 2, but voted for 2.

[Хahar 🤔]

My seat, CA-15, Mike Honda, is pretty much guaranteed Democrat nowadays. This place is too socially liberal for the Republican party.

However, if there was ever a situation where a far left social/economic liberal Democrat ran against a social liberal/economic moderate Republican, I can see the Republican having a shot. We're also pretty rich.

You're from CA-15 too?  We're multiplying! 

Heh, I should have bothered to read the thread, didn't see you two already having an extended conversation about our district. My bad..where you guys from? Berryessa man here, probably the most boring region in the most boring big city in America.

Not much to add to what you guys said except that I wasn't too impressed with Chavez's mayoral run and can't see her winning the post-Honda Democratic primaries, which hopefully will be a long time from now.

I'm from Los Gatos.

Chevez probably would have to have the non-San Jose vote split in the primaries for her to win.  Not too easy.

The Democrat would have to be a social conservative in order to have a chance to lose here, or have some insane view that hurt the computer industry. 

I'm out near Cupertino. And yes, Berryessa is very boring.

Yeah, a Democrat would probably have to make a declaration in support of outsourcing to lose.

[Cylon Candidate]

My seat, CA-15, Mike Honda, is pretty much guaranteed Democrat nowadays. This place is too socially liberal for the Republican party.

However, if there was ever a situation where a far left social/economic liberal Democrat ran against a social liberal/economic moderate Republican, I can see the Republican having a shot. We're also pretty rich.

You're from CA-15 too?  We're multiplying! 

Heh, I should have bothered to read the thread, didn't see you two already having an extended conversation about our district. My bad..where you guys from? Berryessa man here, probably the most boring region in the most boring big city in America.

Not much to add to what you guys said except that I wasn't too impressed with Chavez's mayoral run and can't see her winning the post-Honda Democratic primaries, which hopefully will be a long time from now.

I'm from Los Gatos.

Chevez probably would have to have the non-San Jose vote split in the primaries for her to win.  Not too easy.

The Democrat would have to be a social conservative in order to have a chance to lose here, or have some insane view that hurt the computer industry. 

I'm out near Cupertino. And yes, Berryessa is very boring.

Yeah, a Democrat would probably have to make a declaration in support of outsourcing to lose.

Pretty much.  Maybe if they supported less trade with China it could hurt them, but probably still not enough, unless the GOP had a great candidate. 

[Sam Spade]

"Safe Democrat" really underestimates where I live.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's usually safe Republican, but Brown only beat a lesbian woman by 4% in 2008, 52-48. That was as close as it has been in a long time.

[7,052,770]

I would think it's 100% safe Republican for the foreseeable future, but what happened in MS-01 can give hope to us all.

[Aizen]

Safe Dem. My district elected a gay guy.