NH-Saint Anselm: Sununu+6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's too early to write off NH, but this is Rs only 🎯 target just like AL 2020/ Manchin 2024, of course they get overly happy over a poll that shows a Six point lead for Sununu

But Maggie Hassan could have helped herself by not voting against the minimum wage

[Sir Mohamed]

Extremely early and too many undecideds. Sununu's popularity and the national environment will likely cause headaches at Hassan campaign HQ, but this is still a national race and NH a states leaning blue. If Sununu actually runs, Hassan is more endangered than CCM or Warnock.

[Frenchrepublican]

Although Sununu is ostensibly ahead, it should be noted that this lead is still below the peak polling leads of Bullock & Bredesen. Therefore, the key for Hassan's survival appears to be the degree to which she and her party can nationalize the race like the two aforementioned races were.

This is a very misleading post. A quick glance at the Wiki page/Atlas database will tell you that there was only ONE poll which showed a 7%-point Bullock lead (+6 vs. +7... what a difference), and no other poll ever showed his lead exceeding 4%-points, to say nothing of the fact that Bullock was never really able to pull away from Daines at any point in the race and that Daines was always within striking distance/the race was always 'within the margin of error' in the polling averages even when said polling indicated a slight Bullock advantage.

If TML is looking for a more apt example, perhaps Ted Strickland would make for a better comparison. (fmr)Democratic Governor of a lean R state who initially polled well against an incumbent with middling numbers only to lose. It's not a great comparison since Trump was at the top of the ticket and Strickland had been out of office for 5 years but I can't think of any better ones.

Edit: Its a better comparison too since we actually have polls from March of 2015 showing Strickland ahead.

Strickland lost in 2010 while Sununu has been reelected twice, not sure the comparison works

[User2836]

Extremely early and too many undecideds. Sununu's popularity and the national environment will likely cause headaches at Hassan campaign HQ, but this is still a national race and NH a states leaning blue. If Sununu actually runs, Hassan is more endangered than CCM or Warnock.

Really? I think Warnock is favored for now but if he holds on it will be a nail biter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WARNOCK will have to contend with a Runoff scenario and CCM won't lose the state legislatures NV is dominated by females

We have plenty of time and Hassan has Shaheen

[Frenchrepublican]

Extremely early and too many undecideds. Sununu's popularity and the national environment will likely cause headaches at Hassan campaign HQ, but this is still a national race and NH a states leaning blue. If Sununu actually runs, Hassan is more endangered than CCM or Warnock.

Really? I think Warnock is favored for now but if he holds on it will be a nail biter.

The thing is that the GA Biden electorate (white liberals + blacks) is very inflexible, which is not the case of the Biden NH electorate (white liberals + white moderates who can vote for the right republican candidate), basically it's much easier to find a Biden/Sununu voter than a Biden/Walker or a Biden/Collins one.

[User2836]

Extremely early and too many undecideds. Sununu's popularity and the national environment will likely cause headaches at Hassan campaign HQ, but this is still a national race and NH a states leaning blue. If Sununu actually runs, Hassan is more endangered than CCM or Warnock.

Really? I think Warnock is favored for now but if he holds on it will be a nail biter.

The thing is that the GA Biden electorate (white liberals + blacks) is very inflexible, which is not the case of the Biden NH electorate (white liberals + white moderates who can vote for the right republican candidate), basically it's much easier to find a Biden/Sununu voter than a Biden/Walker or a Biden/Collins one.

Keep in mind though that David Perdue won the first round by 2% on the same ballot as Biden winning the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dont the Rs know that all of our D's running have lost nominations before but not GE, it's 20 mnths til the Election, take a chill pill, it took a while on Election night for Biden to win NH, which he won by 7 as well as Hillary, it took a while to win NH. Hassen have won NH Gubernatorial contest and won NH Senate the first time only, she will win again

This race will tighten, if Sununu decides to run for Senate, it will depend on our Gubernatorial nominee

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Generic Ballot (CD1)
439 likely voters

D 48%
R 39%
Other 3%
Unsure 10%

Generic Ballot (CD2)
432 likely voters

D 48%
R 40%
Other 4%
Unsure 8%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A six pt lead in a state like NH isn't gonna hold up for 20 mnths, but AL or WVA fine, but not NH

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Most vulnerable to least vulnerable in 2022:

1. Hassan (jumps to the end of the list of Sununu doesn't run)
2. Kelly
3. Warnock
4. CCM

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HVJwsMV2Kc

[One Term Floridian]

Turns out every single one of the 12% undecided voters are angry NH women. Safe D nothing to see here

[politics_king]

Sununu may not even run. He has a good chance if he does, but who knows where we're at by primary season.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Biden approval: 50/49 (+1)
Sununu approval: 67/31 (+36)
Hassan approval: 47/44 (+3)
Shaheen approval: 51/43 (+8)
Pappas approval: 45/39 (+6)
Kuster approval: 48/39 (+9)

Generic ballot: Democratic +8

https://www.wmur.com/article/saint-anselm-poll-shows-sununu-leading-hassan-in-hypothetical-us-senate-matchup-47-41/35799277

The ticiet splitting prion disease infecting Maine seems to have spread

[Chips]

Probably a bit too lopsided but I think Sununu would have the edge against Hassan but it would still only be a Lean R at best.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably a bit too lopsided but I think Sununu would have the edge against Hassan but it would still only be a Lean R at best.

We are 500 days from an Election and no Sununu doesn't have the edge against Hassan it's not 2022 yet.

Conservatives should remember Scott Brown who was leading Shaheen just like Sununu and he lost in 2014 in an Obama Midterms

[Utah Neolib]

START RUNNING THE YOUNG KIM ADS, PEOPLE! ITS GO TIME!

Excuse me for a second,
YOUNG KIM! YOUNG KIM! YOUNG KIM! YOUNG KIM! YOUNG KIM! YOUNG KIM! YOUNG KIM!


This is bad news for Hassan. Probably the most vulnerable dem in 2022. If Sununu runs I expect him to win.

[Utah Neolib]

Junk poll. This will become Safe D once Hassan reminds all the Angry New Hampshire Women that Sununu is part of the same party as notorious Homophobe Young Kim.

Why Young Kim specifically? There’s plenty more homophobic people in the Republican Party, and she doesn’t have super conservative social views, so I don’t know why people target her in this aspect

[Roll Roons]

Junk poll. This will become Safe D once Hassan reminds all the Angry New Hampshire Women that Sununu is part of the same party as notorious Homophobe Young Kim.

Why Young Kim specifically? There’s plenty more homophobic people in the Republican Party, and she doesn’t have super conservative social views, so I don’t know why people target her in this aspect

It's just a meme on here. I'm not even sure how it started or why she in particular was singled out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This lead isn't gonna hold for 500 days and Covid is gonna get better by next yr