NH-Saint Anselm: Sununu+6

[S019]

Sununu (R): 47%
Hassan (D) (inc.): 41%


https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1369768074002505740?s=20
March 4-6

871 LV, MoE=3.3%'


Lean R is fair in Hassan v Sununu honestly.

[SnowLabrador]

Yikes, that is not good. Hassan isn't doing herself any favors by pivoting to the right. Granted, it's still very early, but Lean R is a fair rating.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clearly the minimum wage vote has hurt Hassan, she made a silly vote  against workers

[Roll Roons]

Junk poll. This will become Safe D once Hassan reminds all the Angry New Hampshire Women that Sununu is part of the same party as notorious Homophobe Young Kim.

[VAR]

Biden approval: 50/49 (+1)
Sununu approval: 67/31 (+36)
Hassan approval: 47/44 (+3)
Shaheen approval: 51/43 (+8)
Pappas approval: 45/39 (+6)
Kuster approval: 48/39 (+9)

Generic ballot: Democratic +8

https://www.wmur.com/article/saint-anselm-poll-shows-sununu-leading-hassan-in-hypothetical-us-senate-matchup-47-41/35799277

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Junk poll. This will become Safe D once Hassan reminds all the Angry New Hampshire Women that Sununu is part of the same party as notorious Homophobe Young Kim.

D's don't have to win this seat, we have other states, as we won the Senate without ME, NE Rs except Baker who is gonna lose are entrenched

[MargieCat]

Can we trade Hassan for Fetterman?

[Left Wing]

Biden +1 approval in New Hampshire is a little strange, and should be taken into account when analyzing this poll. However Sununu would likely start as a narrow favorite.

Can we trade Hassan for Fetterman?

I mean, Hassan is WAY more likely to win than Fetterman. If you were talking about which you would rather have ideologically, then I definitely agree with you there.

[Xing]

Might be a little too favorable for Sununu, but yeah, Hassan will be in for a tough race if he runs, and I stand by saying this is more likely to flip than GA or NV if he runs.

[WD]

START RUNNING THE YOUNG KIM ADS, PEOPLE! ITS GO TIME!

[MT Treasurer]

START RUNNING THE YOUNG KIM ADS, PEOPLE! ITS GO TIME!

♪ Uh, I’m a Kim guy through and through
Uh, I’m a Kim guy through and through
Uh, I’m a Kim guy through and through
Uh, I’m a Kim guy through and through ♪

[free my dawg]

The thread title is a pretty huge misnomer. The poll's from St. Anselm's College, not the usual WMUR/UNH trash you see floating around. St. A's was almost perfectly accurate with their polls in the 2020 cycle.

I wouldn't be surprised if this was the current snapshot of the race. Voters are still in their honeymoon period with Sununu.

[MargieCat]

Biden +1 approval in New Hampshire is a little strange, and should be taken into account when analyzing this poll. However Sununu would likely start as a narrow favorite.

Can we trade Hassan for Fetterman?

I mean, Hassan is WAY more likely to win than Fetterman. If you were talking about which you would rather have ideologically, then I definitely agree with you there.

I think you are dead wrong, unless the GOP nominee in NH is not Sununu.

There doesn't even seem to be a republican frontrunner in the primary at this point in PA. I don't see Fetterman getting the nomination and losing to a generic-R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Losing Hassan isn't the end all be all for Ds, we won the Senate without ME.

We should be used to this already, this is the only target Ra have, AZ and NV are safe D

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can we trade Hassan for Fetterman?

honestly that is the most likely scenario to dems keeping the senate

[KaiserDave]

A good poll for Sununu, but not amazing
Nothing more than Tilt R

[GALeftist]

Clearly the minimum wage vote has hurt Hassan, she made a silly vote  against workers

Communist OC best OC. All power to the workers.

In all seriousness, this is not that good of a poll for Sununu. In a Biden +1 approval poll I'd want to see Sununu up by closer to double digits before calling him the favorite.

[VAR]

START RUNNING THE YOUNG KIM ADS, PEOPLE! ITS GO TIME!

♪ Uh, I’m a Kim guy through and through
Uh, I’m a Kim guy through and through
Uh, I’m a Kim guy through and through
Uh, I’m a Kim guy through and through ♪

[Roronoa D. Law]

This is about what I expected.

[MT Treasurer]

Three things have stood out to me in almost all the NH polls conducted since Biden's election: (a) Hassan's very underwhelming approval/likeability numbers in a blue state that generally views its Democratic incumbents very favorably, which suggests that she hasn’t been able to carve out a particularly appealing brand like Shaheen or Sununu and is seen as a reliable vote for her party with no independent credentials/accomplishments to boot (and that her amateurish attempts at packaging herself as some independent moderate at the beginning of the election cycle by means of a few token votes on the wrong issues are not fruitful) — these types of incumbents don’t tend to fare too well when they face actual electoral headwinds, especially in New England; (b) Biden's approval numbers in NH lagging behind the entire nation and being more in line with several narrow Biden states like MI/NV, suggesting that Trump's poor showing (PVI-wise) here might have been something of an anomaly even if the state obviously still leans Democratic; (c) Sununu's astonishing success at branding himself as a compassionate/moderate/bipartisan Republican — no doubt that those approval numbers will take a hit during the GE campaign, but you can’t deny that he’s skilled at reading his electorate and that he knows precisely which buttons/issues to push and which ones not (not unlike Manchin, I must say). None of this is too surprising, but it’s not a particularly favorable combination for Democrats going into what is likely to be a R-leaning midterm.

I agree that she’d be the most vulnerable Democrat next year if 'candidate quality' was all that mattered, but Republicans would have to be running immensely flawed candidates to lose AZ/NV on a night when they’re winning NH (especially if it’s not particularly close). As 'weak' as she might be and as skilled a candidate as Sununu is, I’m not sure I buy Hassan losing but Democrats somehow winning all of AZ/PA/NV on the same night. The bigger picture here is that those state-level polls aren’t at all in line with national polls showing Biden's approval at +>15 or even +>10 and do already point to trouble for Democrats in Biden's 'honeymoon.'

[BudgieForce]

Biden +1 approval in New Hampshire is a little strange, and should be taken into account when analyzing this poll. However Sununu would likely start as a narrow favorite.

Can we trade Hassan for Fetterman?

I mean, Hassan is WAY more likely to win than Fetterman. If you were talking about which you would rather have ideologically, then I definitely agree with you there.

Yeah, I don't buy that either.

I can believe Biden being near even in MI and WI but not in a state he just won by 7 points.

[TML]

Although Sununu is ostensibly ahead, it should be noted that this lead is still below the peak polling leads of Bullock & Bredesen. Therefore, the key for Hassan's survival appears to be the degree to which she and her party can nationalize the race like the two aforementioned races were.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Take a chill pill the Election is next yr not this yr and next Summer will determine how Ds will perform in Midterms, Economy standards everytime a NH poll which the only R target, everyone thinks it's an R yr and Sununu isn't at 50

The outparty usually gain 23 House seats in a midterm, but we haven't had a Post Insurrectionists Election and it still a VBM Election

[Hope For A New Era]

Fake Moderate Chris Sunununununununununu is fooling an entire state, just like Susan Collins did. What is it that makes New Englanders in particular just eat this up without a second thought?

[MT Treasurer]

Also, did anyone else notice that there is no gender breakdown for the 'Maggie Hassan Image' question (even though we have one for all the other officeholders) when that’s literally the most important crosstab in any NH poll? lol

We do have one for Hassan approval, though:

Female: +25 (58/33)
Male: -23 (34/57)

48-point gender gap but imo the nh gop can halve that if they talk about why hassan's fiscal policies are bad for nh women and if they emphasize their libertarian social policy positions imo