NH-Saint Anselm: Sununu+6

[BudgieForce]

The thread title is a pretty huge misnomer. The poll's from St. Anselm's College, not the usual WMUR/UNH trash you see floating around. St. A's was almost perfectly accurate with their polls in the 2020 cycle.

I wouldn't be surprised if this was the current snapshot of the race. Voters are still in their honeymoon period with Sununu.

You say the UNH polls were trash but both pollsters actually did really well last year.

[MT Treasurer]

Although Sununu is ostensibly ahead, it should be noted that this lead is still below the peak polling leads of Bullock & Bredesen. Therefore, the key for Hassan's survival appears to be the degree to which she and her party can nationalize the race like the two aforementioned races were.

This is a very misleading post. A quick glance at the Wiki page/Atlas database will tell you that there was only ONE poll which showed a 7%-point Bullock lead (+6 vs. +7... what a difference), and no other poll ever showed his lead exceeding 4%-points, to say nothing of the fact that Bullock was never really able to pull away from Daines at any point in the race and that Daines was always within striking distance/the race was always 'within the margin of error' in the polling averages even when said polling indicated a slight Bullock advantage.

[BudgieForce]

Although Sununu is ostensibly ahead, it should be noted that this lead is still below the peak polling leads of Bullock & Bredesen. Therefore, the key for Hassan's survival appears to be the degree to which she and her party can nationalize the race like the two aforementioned races were.

This is a very misleading post. A quick glance at the Wiki page/Atlas database will tell you that there was only ONE poll which showed a 7%-point Bullock lead (+6 vs. +7... what a difference), and no other poll ever showed his lead exceeding 4%-points, to say nothing of the fact that Bullock was never really able to pull away from Daines at any point in the race and that Daines was always within striking distance/the race was always 'within the margin of error' in the polling averages even when said polling indicated a slight Bullock advantage.

If TML is looking for a more apt example, perhaps Ted Strickland would make for a better comparison. (fmr)Democratic Governor of a lean R state who initially polled well against an incumbent with middling numbers only to lose. It's not a great comparison since Trump was at the top of the ticket and Strickland had been out of office for 5 years but I can't think of any better ones.

Edit: Its a better comparison too since we actually have polls from March of 2015 showing Strickland ahead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also, did anyone else notice that there is no gender breakdown for the 'Maggie Hassan Image' question (even though we have one for all the other officeholders) when that’s literally the most important crosstab in any NH poll? lol

We do have one for Hassan approval, though:

Female: +25 (58/33)
Male: -23 (34/57)

48-point gender gap but imo the nh gop can halve that if they talk about why hassan's fiscal policies are bad for nh women and if they emphasize their libertarian social policy positions imo

You really like to quote polls with 21 mnths left

[DaleCooper]

Rather than trying to convince NH voters to fear "Radical Republican Sununu", I think a potentially good way to hurt Sununu's approval rating if he runs would be to paint him as an opportunist that's just out to further his career. Then again, that'll only be compelling if Hassan can figure out how to win over a majority of the electorate to at least view her favorably like Shaheen.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yep, as expected, we're boned if Sununu decides to challenge Hassan. And given polls like this it will probably encourage him to do so.

We better cross our fingers for holding everything else and flipping one, or both, of North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Rather than trying to convince NH voters to fear "Radical Republican Sununu", I think a potentially good way to hurt Sununu's approval rating if he runs would be to paint him as an opportunist that's just out to further his career. Then again, that'll only be compelling if Hassan can figure out how to win over a majority of the electorate to at least view her favorably like Shaheen.

The best way to run against him would be to make the election about McConnell more than anything, as I see it. Perhaps that calculation, even among supporters of Sununu as Governor, might make them reconsider electing him to the Senate.

[BudgieForce]

Rather than trying to convince NH voters to fear "Radical Republican Sununu", I think a potentially good way to hurt Sununu's approval rating if he runs would be to paint him as an opportunist that's just out to further his career. Then again, that'll only be compelling if Hassan can figure out how to win over a majority of the electorate to at least view her favorably like Shaheen.

Sununu just running in a competitive election will hurt his approval ratings. The fact that Hassan is only down 6 against a man with +36 approval ratings is probably a better sign for her than some here think. Especially in a poll that is probably overstating his popularity(not a snowballs chance in heck Biden is only at +1 here)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once D's get past these 2021 Midterms, they will be seen as winners and move onto 2022, as I said before outparty usually gain 23 seats, but we haven't had a post Insurrectionists yet, 2020 where Rs Overperformed expections were pre Insurrectionists

But, it's not of the question just like in 2020, Collins won and we gained 4 Senate seats, that D's can net Senate Seats without NH

Midterms aren't Prez races and Brown won at the same time DeWine beat Cordray 2018

[Skill and Chance]

Three things have stood out to me in almost all the NH polls conducted since Biden's election: (a) Hassan's very underwhelming approval/likeability numbers in a blue state that generally views its Democratic incumbents very favorably, which suggests that she hasn’t been able to carve out a particularly appealing brand like Shaheen or Sununu and is seen as a reliable vote for her party with no independent credentials/accomplishments to boot (and that her amateurish attempts at packaging herself as some independent moderate at the beginning of the election cycle by means of a few token votes on the wrong issues are not fruitful) — these types of incumbents don’t tend to fare too well when they face actual electoral headwinds, especially in New England; (b) Biden's approval numbers in NH lagging behind the entire nation and being more in line with several narrow Biden states like MI/NV, suggesting that Trump's poor showing (PVI-wise) here might have been something of an anomaly even if the state obviously still leans Democratic; (c) Sununu's astonishing success at branding himself as a compassionate/moderate/bipartisan Republican — no doubt that those approval numbers will take a hit during the GE campaign, but you can’t deny that he’s skilled at reading his electorate and that he knows precisely which buttons/issues to push and which ones not (not unlike Manchin, I must say). None of this is too surprising, but it’s not a particularly favorable combination for Democrats going into what is likely to be a R-leaning midterm.

I agree that she’d be the most vulnerable Democrat next year if 'candidate quality' was all that mattered, but Republicans would have to be running immensely flawed candidates to lose AZ/NV on a night when they’re winning NH (especially if it’s not particularly close). As 'weak' as she might be and as skilled a candidate as Sununu is, I’m not sure I buy Hassan losing but Democrats somehow winning all of AZ/PA/NV on the same night. The bigger picture here is that those state-level polls aren’t at all in line with national polls showing Biden's approval at +>15 or even +>10 and do already point to trouble for Democrats in Biden's 'honeymoon.'

Hmmm... yet there have been recent polls of Texas showing positive Biden approvals.  Biden approval by state (near even in NH/MI and I believe negative in WI) looks more like a continuation of 2016 trends than the 2020 results.

If this means Dems have to worry again about New England slipping away, that's quite serious in the medium-long run.

[BudgieForce]

Three things have stood out to me in almost all the NH polls conducted since Biden's election: (a) Hassan's very underwhelming approval/likeability numbers in a blue state that generally views its Democratic incumbents very favorably, which suggests that she hasn’t been able to carve out a particularly appealing brand like Shaheen or Sununu and is seen as a reliable vote for her party with no independent credentials/accomplishments to boot (and that her amateurish attempts at packaging herself as some independent moderate at the beginning of the election cycle by means of a few token votes on the wrong issues are not fruitful) — these types of incumbents don’t tend to fare too well when they face actual electoral headwinds, especially in New England; (b) Biden's approval numbers in NH lagging behind the entire nation and being more in line with several narrow Biden states like MI/NV, suggesting that Trump's poor showing (PVI-wise) here might have been something of an anomaly even if the state obviously still leans Democratic; (c) Sununu's astonishing success at branding himself as a compassionate/moderate/bipartisan Republican — no doubt that those approval numbers will take a hit during the GE campaign, but you can’t deny that he’s skilled at reading his electorate and that he knows precisely which buttons/issues to push and which ones not (not unlike Manchin, I must say). None of this is too surprising, but it’s not a particularly favorable combination for Democrats going into what is likely to be a R-leaning midterm.

I agree that she’d be the most vulnerable Democrat next year if 'candidate quality' was all that mattered, but Republicans would have to be running immensely flawed candidates to lose AZ/NV on a night when they’re winning NH (especially if it’s not particularly close). As 'weak' as she might be and as skilled a candidate as Sununu is, I’m not sure I buy Hassan losing but Democrats somehow winning all of AZ/PA/NV on the same night. The bigger picture here is that those state-level polls aren’t at all in line with national polls showing Biden's approval at +>15 or even +>10 and do already point to trouble for Democrats in Biden's 'honeymoon.'

Hmmm... yet there have been recent polls of Texas showing positive Biden approvals.  Biden approval by state (near even in NH/MI and I believe negative in WI) looks more like a continuation of 2016 trends than the 2020 results.

If this means Dems have to worry again about New England slipping away, that's quite serious in the medium-long run.

Maine and New Hampshire both snapped back strongly in 2020 so I'm not in agreement that New England is slipping away.

I also have a hard time believing Biden is only at +1. Hopefully we get more polling here to see if other pollsters back that up.

[free my dawg]

The thread title is a pretty huge misnomer. The poll's from St. Anselm's College, not the usual WMUR/UNH trash you see floating around. St. A's was almost perfectly accurate with their polls in the 2020 cycle.

I wouldn't be surprised if this was the current snapshot of the race. Voters are still in their honeymoon period with Sununu.

You say the UNH polls were trash but both pollsters actually did really well last year.

Their methodology has always been awful, especially for downballot races. Their NH-1 poll swung by 12 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pollsters are gonna keep putting out polls showing Sununu ahead.

The momentum of the 2022 Midterms will swing in the D direction once we win 2021 Gubernatorial Elections
In 1997/2001/2009/2017 the outparty gained back the Congress, but since the Rs are gonna lose both races and state legislature seats in VA and NJ, once we win, our moments will come

[kwabbit]

Although Sununu is ostensibly ahead, it should be noted that this lead is still below the peak polling leads of Bullock & Bredesen. Therefore, the key for Hassan's survival appears to be the degree to which she and her party can nationalize the race like the two aforementioned races were.

Nationalization will surely cut Sununu's lead, but the effect of this will be a lot less in a Biden +7 state than a Trump +16 or +23 state. A generic ballot in NH will be in the low single digits Dem in all likelihood, and could even be R in a typical midterm environment. The force of nationalization pulling towards this margin could be weak enough where Sununu can still win by a few points if the race is completely nationalized. Bullock still outperformed Biden by 6 points. If Sununu outperforms a generic R by 6 points, then he's going to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Although Sununu is ostensibly ahead, it should be noted that this lead is still below the peak polling leads of Bullock & Bredesen. Therefore, the key for Hassan's survival appears to be the degree to which she and her party can nationalize the race like the two aforementioned races were.

Nationalization will surely cut Sununu's lead, but the effect of this will be a lot less in a Biden +7 state than a Trump +16 or +23 state. A generic ballot in NH will be in the low single digits Dem in all likelihood, and could even be R in a typical midterm environment. The force of nationalization pulling towards this margin could be weak enough where Sununu can still win by a few points if the race is completely nationalized. Bullock still outperformed Biden by 6 ponts. If Sununu outperforms a generic R by 6 points, then he's going to win.

Sununu isn't gonna win, NH is a Den state and we have 21 months til the Election, stop playing

We haven't had a post Insurrectionists Election and Trump is still hurting the Rs nationally, we still have plenty of times there are no campaign ads up, zero

Rs are the ones that want us to believe the Election is todsuly and they have lost seats since 2016 in the House 33 seats in 2018 and 4 Senate seats in 2020.  Biden has a 50 PERCENT Approvals in NH and 6 pts can easily be overcome not 10

[DaleCooper]

Rather than trying to convince NH voters to fear "Radical Republican Sununu", I think a potentially good way to hurt Sununu's approval rating if he runs would be to paint him as an opportunist that's just out to further his career. Then again, that'll only be compelling if Hassan can figure out how to win over a majority of the electorate to at least view her favorably like Shaheen.

The best way to run against him would be to make the election about McConnell more than anything, as I see it. Perhaps that calculation, even among supporters of Sununu as Governor, might make them reconsider electing him to the Senate.

They'd be smart to start painting Sununu as a party-line Republican sooner rather than later, but I think the emphasis when discussing McConnell should be more about how a vote for Sununu is a vote for gridlock and divisiveness, etc., while trying to brand Hassan as someone who puts New Hampshire before party. That's an image she'll need to start crafting immediately, though. NH is a small state and a majority of 2022 voters will have voted for Sununu two years earlier. Trying to convince those people that Chris Sununu is Young Kim in disguise could backfire like it did for Gideon, who I still believe could've defeated Collins if she'd run a campaign tailored to her state rather than to nationwide anti-Trump voters. Young Kim jokes aside, Hassan has the unique challenge as an incumbent of having to win over a sizable percentage of her opponents' past voters to win, and if she treats it as a given that NH hates Sununu because he's a Republican then she's taking a big risk in my mind.

[wbrocks67]

Biden approval: 50/49 (+1)
Sununu approval: 67/31 (+36)
Hassan approval: 47/44 (+3)
Shaheen approval: 51/43 (+8)
Pappas approval: 45/39 (+6)
Kuster approval: 48/39 (+9)

Generic ballot: Democratic +8

https://www.wmur.com/article/saint-anselm-poll-shows-sununu-leading-hassan-in-hypothetical-us-senate-matchup-47-41/35799277

Democrats at +8 GCB, but Biden's approval at only +1? After winning by 7/8? Hmmm

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan has Jean Shaheen by her side, Shaheen will campaign for Hassan

The only real maverick in NH, was Judd Gregg, Sununu, vetoed Minimum wage just as bad as HASSAN

[MillennialModerate]

Yeah this is a Likely R.

Without NH the Senate is going to be insanely hard to hold onto

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah this is a Likely R.

Without NH the Senate is going to be insanely hard to hold onto

21 mnths til the Election, it's not end all be all for Hassan, wow a six pt lead can't be overcome by Nov 2022/ lol Strickland was up 10, pts on Portman and so was Bredesen on Marsha Blackburn and both lost

[Left Wing]

Yeah this is a Likely R.

Without NH the Senate is going to be insanely hard to hold onto

Keep saying that, Hassan becomes more likely to win every time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Failing in 2022/ is not an option, it's our last opportunity to get wave insurance before 2024 map and Statehood and so is succeeding I'm the House

[UncleSam]

Lol if Sununu wins by 6 it will be because Rs are winning in a massive midterm landslide and will have nothing to do with his approval rating as Governor. By Election Day his approvals will be in the mid-50s and all of his prior Democratic support will have come home. If the generic ballot is D+8 that gives Hassan a lot of wriggle room to withstand an unfavorable national environment as well. Tossup for now but entirely dependent on factors outside either candidates’ control.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Three things have stood out to me in almost all the NH polls conducted since Biden's election: (a) Hassan's very underwhelming approval/likeability numbers in a blue state that generally views its Democratic incumbents very favorably, which suggests that she hasn’t been able to carve out a particularly appealing brand like Shaheen or Sununu and is seen as a reliable vote for her party with no independent credentials/accomplishments to boot (and that her amateurish attempts at packaging herself as some independent moderate at the beginning of the election cycle by means of a few token votes on the wrong issues are not fruitful) — these types of incumbents don’t tend to fare too well when they face actual electoral headwinds, especially in New England; (b) Biden's approval numbers in NH lagging behind the entire nation and being more in line with several narrow Biden states like MI/NV, suggesting that Trump's poor showing (PVI-wise) here might have been something of an anomaly even if the state obviously still leans Democratic; (c) Sununu's astonishing success at branding himself as a compassionate/moderate/bipartisan Republican — no doubt that those approval numbers will take a hit during the GE campaign, but you can’t deny that he’s skilled at reading his electorate and that he knows precisely which buttons/issues to push and which ones not (not unlike Manchin, I must say). None of this is too surprising, but it’s not a particularly favorable combination for Democrats going into what is likely to be a R-leaning midterm.

I agree that she’d be the most vulnerable Democrat next year if 'candidate quality' was all that mattered, but Republicans would have to be running immensely flawed candidates to lose AZ/NV on a night when they’re winning NH (especially if it’s not particularly close). As 'weak' as she might be and as skilled a candidate as Sununu is, I’m not sure I buy Hassan losing but Democrats somehow winning all of AZ/PA/NV on the same night. The bigger picture here is that those state-level polls aren’t at all in line with national polls showing Biden's approval at +>15 or even +>10 and do already point to trouble for Democrats in Biden's 'honeymoon.'

Regarding your second point above, that certainly is possible.  I will note, however, that NH is a pretty weird state in terms of elasticity.  Obama was unpopular there in the run up to 2012, and some even said the state was lean R because he was consistently trailing in polls early on, but Obama then won it by a comfortable margin in 2012.  2010 bears this out as well, as Hassan won by a huge margin, also reflecting Obama's unpopularity at the time.  It seems like it's prone to wild midterm swings, at the very least.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is nothing to convince MT Treasurer or French Republican whom were wrong about GA that it's gonna be a D year. 

Biden is at 54% Approvals and Bush W won in 2002/ with same approvals.

Wave a magic wand, that Trump couldn't do and Covid disappear when Rs are in charge, not true

[Devils30]

Sununu hasn't been pulled into national politics yet, the crosstabs of this poll look very iffy. I'd say tossup if Sununu in, Lean to likely D if not.