New to elections: Are Ohio and Florida now safe Republican states?

[SAAuthCapitalist]

They use to be swing states. I remember in 2012 the American news broadcasters said Florida determined the election.

Now however Florida and Ohio do not appeal to be bellwethers. Is it true?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Ohio is pretty safe Republican, Florida is not as safe as Ohio, but might be in the not-so-distant future.

[Hammy]

Ohio is very much Likely to Safe R. Florida is trending that way over the last few elections, but still in Lean R territory unless the trend continues a few more cycles.

[SAAuthCapitalist]

Interesting responses!

Is there an example like this for the Democrats? Ohio and Florida used to be swing but now they are not.

Is there example of a Republican or a swing state becoming heavily liberal like Florida and Ohio transformed completely Republican in recent history?

[ultraviolet]

Interesting responses!

Is there an example like this for the Democrats? Ohio and Florida used to be swing but now they are not.

Is there example of a Republican or a swing state becoming heavily liberal like Florida and Ohio transformed completely Republican in recent history?

Florida is not completely Republican, it’s still lean. Predicting the future of Florida is very difficult, so I’ll leave that to others. And yes, there are plenty of states opposite of Ohio, most recently Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico.

[7,052,770]

After HR1 passes, they'll be tossup, maybe Lean D. And that's why HR1 will pass. Democrats won't get another chance to save elections from permanent rigging.

[here2view]

Ohio: Likely to Safe R
Florida: Lean R

[Pericles]

Ohio: Likely to Safe R
Florida: Lean R

This, a 3 point margin isn't that much and Florida may snap back in the future. Ohio is likely too far gone, it wasn't even that close in the 2018 midterms, and its demographics are worse for Democrats than Florida.

[Bootes Void]

Ohio for sure, Florida is no idea

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Both have important Senate seats up in 2022 and 2024, according to pbower2A approvals every state aside from red states and IA and TX, the oyltyers are still purple which includes OH and FL

Rick Scott is vulnerable and OH Senate is purple in 2022 and 2024.

Rs forget that DeWine isn't as safe as you think for Gov Reelection, the only races he won as landslides are the AG races, which he ran against nobodies.  He only won by 3 in 2018 and lost to Sherrod Brown. Cranley whom isn't lackluster like Brown can beat DeWine

IA and TX are red states though

Mahoning County isn't gonna always vote R and gave Trump an inflated margin over Biden.

[Badger]

Sadly yes to Ohio. You got Appalachian counties like Pike and went 3-1 for Donald Trump but only eight years ago Obama lost by exactly one vote. The shift throughout the Ohio Valley and working-class counties like Lorraine is staggering. I really can't put my finger on it since I don't live there

[Stuart98]

After HR1 passes, they'll be tossup, maybe Lean D. And that's why HR1 will pass. Democrats won't get another chance to save elections from permanent rigging.

HR1 isn't going to erase an 8 point deficit. Democrats will net a lot more house seats out of Ohio if it passes but this is about statewide races. Dems might do much better in Ohio going forward but that would have a lot more to do with the Trump coalition collapsing without Trump than it would any voting rights legislation.

[VAR]

After HR1 passes, they'll be tossup, maybe Lean D. And that's why HR1 will pass. Democrats won't get another chance to save elections from permanent rigging.

Lol

[Calthrina950]

After HR1 passes, they'll be tossup, maybe Lean D. And that's why HR1 will pass. Democrats won't get another chance to save elections from permanent rigging.

Lol

I've already heard rumblings from some on the right that they will challenge HR1 in court if it passes, and that much of it would be struck down by the conservative majority on the Supreme Court. We'll see how things transpire. It's certainly not going to throw Ohio and Florida to the Democrats.

As for the question in this thread, Ohio is clearly a Safe R state now. I'm not ready to give that designation to Florida as of yet, but I think it's fair to call it a Lean/Likely R state that could go Democratic if they're winning by at least an Obama 2008 margin or something similar.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They are still purple except for IA and TX but Ds can have a 56 the State pickup should Grassley retire and Biden has a net approval in iA and FL, but Rubio is for PR Statehood which will allow DeSantis to win

As I said before DeWine has a tough Reelection he never won his races by double digits except for AG where he ran  against no body and Tim Ryan is popular and Cranley is popular too who will run for Gov and he is better than Lackluster Cordray whom got AA support but not enough WC Females

[Samof94]

Ohio is, but Florida is still a swing state.

[MillennialModerate]

They use to be swing states. I remember in 2012 the American news broadcasters said Florida determined the election.

Now however Florida and Ohio do not appeal to be bellwethers. Is it true?

2012 was focused completely on Ohio. I don’t think many other states even got attention. Ohio was the whole ballgame. Same thing in 2004 actually.

[7,052,770]

After HR1 passes, they'll be tossup, maybe Lean D. And that's why HR1 will pass. Democrats won't get another chance to save elections from permanent rigging.

Lol

I've already heard rumblings from some on the right that they will challenge HR1 in court if it passes, and that much of it would be struck down by the conservative majority on the Supreme Court. We'll see how things transpire. It's certainly not going to throw Ohio and Florida to the Democrats.

We'll see. I don't think Republicans want to strike down laws that allow the House to set rules like this, or else California could just decide to elect all 53 representatives in a single statewide at-large district, with 53 Democratic nominees, 53 Republican nominees, etc. Say hello to a permanent 53-0 lockout.

New York, etc., could also do that, but large Republican states might run into trouble with locking out minority representation if they tried it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ohio and Florida are two completely different states. Trump won OH by 8 points, but FL by only 3. It does seem like generally OH has taken a pretty clear rightwards trend in recent cycles, but FL is much harder to pinpoint, sometimes trending left and sometimes trending right, often bucking national trends. To call either safe for the GOP at this point is a bit premature IMO, though there definately is a case to be made for OH.

[pbrower2a]

Lean R. These are the sorts of states that a Democrat can now win without, but since 2000, effectively must-win states for the Republican nominee.

Trump may have been an unusually-fit nominee for these two states (see also Iowa).

Iowa used to be a must-win state for a Democrat.

[MarkD]

Both states voted for Obama twice.

Ohio still has a Democratic Senator. Florida had one as well, and he lost by a razor-thin margin.

The last three elections for Governor of Florida, although all won by Republicans, were pretty thin margins, with the most recent one being the thinnest margin.

The only particularly "safe Republican" thing about those two states are the Republican majorities in the state legislature. In most statewide races, these two states should still be regarded as competitive, potentially swing states.

[EastwoodS]

After HR1 passes, they'll be tossup, maybe Lean D. And that's why HR1 will pass. Democrats won't get another chance to save elections from permanent rigging.

I already know you were one of those crazies that thought Florida would be safe blue when they gave creeps and criminals the right to vote in 2018. SIKE.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Welcome to the forum!

Ohio is safe in the sense that I can't see how a Democratic nominee could win the state anytime soon. It's still winnable at the state level with the right candidate, but so is Montana and nobody is calling that anything but a safe R state. Obama did win it in 2008 and 2012, but he was an unusually strong candidate for the great lakes states, and without the auto bailout and an opponent like Romney, he probably couldn't have won it in 2012.

Florida is unpredictable precisely because it has solid Democratic and Republican bases, and a lot of voters who can swing year-to-year. Biden's Latino underperformance was a major factor in Trump winning Florida, but with incumbency, you never know how things will go. Dems shouldn't give up on Florida because it's a huge prize and can single-handedly decide elections, but I'd say on balance it leans R.

[Alben Barkley]

Ohio is likely R, Florida is chaos and it’s futile to try to classify it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio is likely R, Florida is chaos and it’s futile to try to classify it.

You do realize that Tom Ryan is being financed by the DSCC like Jackson, Fetterman and Nelson are

Sifton has yet to be endorsed die to MO rightward track but it helps him that Blunt retired


ITS NOT NEWS THAT OBAMA AND BIDEN WON OHIO IN 2008/12 AND SHERROD BROWN BEAT A WELL FINANCED CANDIDATE IN RENACCI

JOSH MANDEL IS BEATABLE

Rs think it's a 278 Map and OH, IA, GA, FL and NC are red not purple states, just like they were wrong about GA Runoffs