TX-06 Special Election Prediction
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 08:56:02 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  TX-06 Special Election Prediction		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: How will this district vote in May?
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Tilt D		  
#5
Tossup		  
#6
Tilt R		  
#7
Lean R		  
#8
Likely R		  
#9
Safe R		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 50

Author Topic: TX-06 Special Election Prediction  (Read 560 times)
HawkeyePierce
Newbie
*
Posts: 11
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 07, 2021, 07:51:34 PM »
Only going for Trump by 3 in 2020, now-deceased Ron Wright won this district by 8.8%.

I don't see it flipping, despite its leftward trend. Democrats may narrow the margin slightly, but not significantly. I'm guessing a 6-7 point GOP win and the Democrat not cracking 46%.
Logged
Not Me, Us
KhanOfKhans
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,269
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2021, 07:59:28 PM »
Likely R. Low-turnout special election where the former incumbent significantly outperformed Trump. Not an impossible flip, but there's very little chance of it.
Logged
Roll Roons
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,050
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2021, 08:08:18 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2021, 10:08:46 PM by Roll Roons »
Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean. I think leftward trends in the suburbs will slow down now that Trump's out of office. But as others have said, this district is not overwhelmingly Republican and it's possible that the GOP finds a way to screw it up.
Logged
MargieCat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,571
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2021, 08:10:36 PM »
Are we predicting Susan Wright or someone else?

I think it goes R regardless.

But Wright is probably favored.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2021, 08:20:16 PM »
Likely R, bordering on Safe. If a Republican were president, then this would probably be much more interesting.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,718
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2021, 09:56:42 PM »
If Biden's approvals stay where they are and Dems run a decent campaign, this looks like a Toss-Up. It could crater into Likely R very easily though.
Logged
GM Team Member and Senator WB
weatherboy1102
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,829
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -7.83

P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2021, 09:59:07 PM »
Likely R. An upset is possible, but unlikely.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,114


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2021, 10:01:01 PM »
Quote from: Chair WB on March 07, 2021, 09:59:07 PM
Likely R. An upset is possible, but unlikely.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,864
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2021, 10:15:25 PM »
Safe R.  Dems are going to be sorely disappointed in their performance here.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,787


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2021, 10:19:23 PM »
Will Susan Wright be the GOP nominee?
Logged
MargieCat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,571
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2021, 11:25:55 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on March 07, 2021, 10:19:23 PM
Will Susan Wright be the GOP nominee?
I might be wrong, but I think it's a jungle primary with a potential runoff if no one gets to 50%.

It could actually be 2 republicans if they place first and second.
Logged
Stuart98
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,783
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -5.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2021, 02:10:00 AM »
Lean R, mainly because GOP seems to be screwing up the jungle pretty badly with too many candidates. Especially if a candidate other than Wright's widow gets Trump's endorsement.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2021, 05:07:11 AM »
Likely R. If Trump had won, this probably would be Likely D.
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2021, 05:30:18 AM »
Likely R. A few candidates on the GOP side could make it move towards Lean R.
Logged
Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
LVScreenssuck
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,456


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2021, 10:23:42 AM »
Tossup because irregular specials are weird
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2021, 12:37:36 PM »
Hard to say. Predicting jungle primaries is not easy, besides the field is extremely split, 11 GOP candidates vs 10 dem candidates.

I would say Lean R because you can't totally rule out a possible scenario where two democrats end up together in the second round.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2021, 12:40:14 PM »
Quote from: Stuart98 on March 08, 2021, 02:10:00 AM
Lean R, mainly because GOP seems to be screwing up the jungle pretty badly with too many candidates. Especially if a candidate other than Wright's widow gets Trump's endorsement.

To be fair there are 10 democrats who are running, so they could also easily being shut out of the runoff.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,787


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2021, 01:02:47 PM »
I bet Trump endorses a candidate who isn't Susan Wright.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2021, 01:07:43 PM »
55-42 R
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,787


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2021, 01:08:24 PM »
R vs R runoff. Susan Wright loses to the other candidate.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.043 seconds with 13 queries.