'06 House: Will there be party switches?

[MarkWarner08]

As we all know, back in 1994, a handful of Southern Democrats in the House and the Senate switched parties, further solidifying the GOP’s newly gained majorities.
Could Southern D’s tip the balance in 2006?

 I think it’s possible that up to five Southern Democrats could join the GOP if the Democrats gain the majority in the House and nominate Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. This hypothetical scenario will only play out if the Democrats take back the House, pick Pelosi for Speaker and have a narrow majority that could be swayed by  a couple party
switches.

Here are the five Democrats who may switch parties if the Democrats take back the House, robbing Democrats of their tenuous majority:

1.   Allan Boyd (D.,FL) is  the most conservative member of Florida’s Democratic delegation. Boyd, as some remember, was the only Democrat out of 202 in the House who supported Bush’s Social Security privatization scheme.  Boyd’s district is swaying right and it is likely he will be the last Dem to hold this seat.
2.   Henry Cuellar (D.,TX) has always been an  outside in the Democratic party. Cuellar has served in a key cabinet position under a Republican governor, been kissed by Bush,  been targeted for defeat in a primary by the Left and has received a chilly reception from his Democratic colleagues.
3.   Jim Marshall is one of the last of a dying breed –  White Georgian Democrats.
Marshall is from an overwhelmingly Republican district and may be persuaded by political realities to switch parties. This Princeton educated war hero has the most conservative record of Georgia’s ’s Democratic delegation.
4.Bud Cramer (D.,AL) is the last White Democrat in Alabama’s congressional delegation. Cramer routinely wins by lopsided margins in this right-wing district but he is known to have an acrimonious relationship with Pelosi
5. Charlie Melancon’s (D.,LA). 2004 runoff victory stunned many political analysts. His district has been radically on, reconfigured by Katrina and he now faces a well-funded GOP opponent. While Melancon will likely win re-election, it is possible he will follow the path of Rodney Alexander and move his conservative view over to a more comfortable home n the other side of the aisle

[WalterMitty]

egads.  you can keep those jokers.  what a pitiful bunch!

the guy from florida seems halfway decent.

[Torie]

If it made a difference, Taylor and Cuellar might switch, and maybe Melancon. The odds that it will make a difference are low.

[MarkWarner08]

The reason I don't include Gene Taylor is that while he may be conservative, he's a Yellow-Dog Democrat.

Does anyone think that Shays might change parties if the House is at 218 GOP- 217 Democrats?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Boyd is just as much as a Yellow Dog as Taylor (he's also much less conservative). There's no chance he'd switch. And while Cramer is very conservative for a Democrat, he is light years to the left of the Alabama Republican Party. The same is true of Melancon, just change Alabama to Louisiana.

That leaves Cueller and Marshall, Cueller would be in danger for reelection if he switched parties and Marshall is heavily tied to the Georgia Democratic Party machine (he was their handpicked candidate to run for a newly drawn gerrymandered district). Out of those, I'd say Cueller is most likely but that won't be unless he seeks higher office.

[WalterMitty]

The reason I don't include Gene Taylor is that while he may be conservative, he's a Yellow-Dog Democrat.

Does anyone think that Shays might change parties if the House is at 218 GOP- 217 Democrats?

no.  shays loyalty to the republican party is not in question.

plus, the democrats have spent a lot of resources trying to take him out.  why would he want to join them?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If they haven't defected yet and have remained Democrats even though their party is in the minority (and do remember that Cramer has been in the House throughout the House Democrats wilderness years) why on earth would they wait until their party was back in the majority again?

The time to defect is when the party you are defecting to is in the ascendency, not when it's trying to cling onto power.

[Smash255]

The reason I don't include Gene Taylor is that while he may be conservative, he's a Yellow-Dog Democrat.

Does anyone think that Shays might change parties if the House is at 218 GOP- 217 Democrats?

no.  shays loyalty to the republican party is not in question.

plus, the democrats have spent a lot of resources trying to take him out.  why would he want to join them?

Though its the Senate, the Dems are going to spend quite a bit to knock Chafee out, and if he survives the Primary and the General (both unknowns at this point)  I wouldn't be suprised if he switched.  Though I agree if Shays holds on and wins, I don't think he is switching. 

[MarkWarner08]

If they haven't defected yet and have remained Democrats even though their party is in the minority (and do remember that Cramer has been in the House throughout the House Democrats wilderness years) why on earth would they wait until their party was back in the majority again?

The time to defect is when the party you are defecting to is in the ascendency, not when it's trying to cling onto power.

Wouldn't they be enticed by an offer of a chairmanship and increased power in a Republican House? As Ken Mehlman gleefully points out, the Democrats would chair the major committee are old, liberal and live in safe districts.
A desperate Republican House leadership may be more willing to provide real power to the Cuellar's and Cramer's of the House than liberal Pelosi is.

[Torie]

Shays is going to retire involuntarily from the House, so what he mgiht do is moot. Taylor has refused to vote for Dem speakers in the past; I don't know why he would stop just saying "no" now. Cuellar has a new district that is even more Bush friendly than the last one, something like 53% or so. He can do what he wants. I think he might be ripe hanging fruit if his vote made a difference. Melancon might be interested if he has a tough re-election battle, given the "new" demographics" down there. If he doesn't, I doubt he will be tempted.

[MasterJedi]

I really don't think anybody will switch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wouldn't they be enticed by an offer of a chairmanship and increased power in a Republican House?

They would be perfectly well-aware that any such perks would be temporary; either the Democrats would take the House back at the next election and they'd lose their perks that way, or the Republicans would make enough gains at the next election to kick them out of their chairmanships and etc.

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The key word here is "old" isn't it? None of the five potential defectors you've mentioned are especially old.

[TeePee4Prez]

None because of political constraints.  Most likely would be the very DINOcratic Cuellar.  I would actually consider Mike Fitzpatrick over him.  Not joking.

[HardRCafé]

egads.  you can keep those jokers.  what a pitiful bunch!

How, pray tell, is Marshall a joker and/or pitiful?

[GOP = Terrorists]

Does anyone think that Shays might change parties if the House is at 218 GOP- 217 Democrats?

No way.  He is a HUGE supporter of the debacle in the desert.  His only shot is in the GOP.

[socaldem]

I could possibly see rep. Leach of Iowa switching sides, if enticed by a chairmanship, but other than him, I don't see any GOP defections.

As for Democratic defections, I agree with other commenters who have noted that you don't switch to the party that's waning in power.  That said, Cuellar could theoretically switch sides, but that would potentially make him vulnerable to a challenge from any number of South Texas Democrats.  While the district and its large Latino population may have supported Bush, it is still reliably Democratic in all other contests and brimming with ambitious Democrats...

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think my point has already been made - none of the above will switch.  Most of them are Southern Democrats who have already been in the minority for a while and faced agressive challenges from the GOP at home.  They had the chance to change parties in 2002 and 2004 which would obviously have seemed much more fortuitous then. 

Although Cuellar and Melancon are both conservative Democrats I still do not think they have a motive for doing so. Cuellar served as Texas Secretary of State under Rick Perry from 2000-2002 and still chose to run as a Democrat for Congress in 2004.  While Melancon made the choice to run as a Democrat in 2004 and won by something like 569 votes against Billy Tauzin, Jr - it makes no sense for him to defect now.  I actually remember The Hill asking Democratic members representing Districts won by Bush if they were comfortable with Pelosi as a potential Speaker and almost all of them were - I think most Democrats see her as competent and are grateful to her for getting them where they are in a position to retake the House. 

[Nym90]

None. If they were going to go they'd have gone already by now, and most likely none of the Representatives on this list are particularly big fans of Bush at the moment.