early 2012 frontrunners?

[Mr. Morden]

As soon as the 2008 presidential election is over, the media will rush to annoint the early frontrunner for the 2012 presidential nomination of the losing party.  Obviously, whoever wins the 2008 election will be the automatic frontrunner to be renominated by their own party in 2012.  But who will be declared the early 2012 Democratic frontrunner if a Republican wins the White House in '08, and who will be declared the early 2012 Republican frontrunner if a Democrat wins the White House in '08?

Obviously, it depends at least a little on who the nominees are in 2008.  If you win the nomination and then lose the general election, you tend to get stigmatized as a loser, and it's a very tough road to win the nomination again.  Whereas failing to get the nomination in the first place doesn't necessarily doom your chances of getting it further down the road (look at Reagan in 1980 or Dole in 1996).

Still, even before we know who the nominees will be in '08, we might be able to make some educated guesses.  For example, I strongly suspect that if the GOP wins in '08, Obama will be declared the early frontrunner for the Dem nomination in '12.  The media fawns over the guy, and the only reason it's believed that he won't run in '08 is because he doesn't have enough experience.  But four more years in the Senate should be enough.  The only problem Obama might have is if it's Hillary who ends up as the '08 nominee and ends up losing the general election.  If that happens, then a CW could emerge that says that the party should "play it safe" next time around, and go back to nominating white males.  But aside from Obama, I don't know who the 2012 Dem frontrunner might be.  Eliot Spitzer?

If the Dems win in '08, however, then I have no idea who the early frontrunner for the '12 GOP nomination might be.  McCain would be way too old at that point.  I suppose Allen or Romney could try again, but I think 2008 is their best opportunity.  Mark Sanford would be a likely candidate, but he doesn't have enough of a national profile to be annointed the early frontrunner.  I'm guessing the punditocracy will trot out high profile names like Jeb Bush, Rudy Giuliani, Condi Rice, and maybe even Arnold (pending a constitutional amendment).  But will any of them be regarded as the "frontrunner"?  I don't know.  Thoughts?

[Frodo]

Brian Schweitzer of Montana would also be a strong contender for Democrats (if we lose in 2008 with either Hillary Clinton or Russ Feingold as our nominee that year), especially as he would be completing his second term as governor by the time he decides to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2012. 

[Reignman]

Schweitzer, Warner if Hillary or Feingold ran, Obama.

I dunno who it'd be for the GOP though. Probably a moderate if a conservative were the nominee.

[Rococo4]

schweitzer was interviewed last week on Cleveland radio (who knows why) talking about fuel.  He sounded like a reasonable guy.  I would vote for him though only if I found his R opponent totally unacceptable.  So not likely, but I was impressed by him.  I guess that is why he was doing the interview.

[Mr. Morden]

The more I think about it, the more I'm inclined to think that, if the Dems win in '08, the early frontrunner for the '12 GOP nomination will be someone with a low national profile *now*, but who will become nationally well known in the '08 campaign cycle.  That means either the GOP's '08 VP candidate, or one of the presidential candidates who doesn't get the nomination.  Someone will emerge for whom people will later say "If only the Republicans had nominated *this* guy, they might have won."

[Soaring Eagle]

If the Democrats lose in 2008, (which I doubt they will) Barack Obama and Brian Schweitzer will be the two frontrunners in 2012, possibly even running mates.

If the Republicans lose in 2008, (which I think they will) they have a lot of potential candidates such as John Thune, David Vitter, John Sununu (assuming he doesn't lose his Senate seat), Jim Talent (ditto), and Mark Sanford. Any one of them could win if the incumbent president were unpopular enough.

[Kevin]

Heres my list for the Republicans assuming the Democrats win.

1.Governor Dick DeVos
2.Governor Mike Rounds
3. Former Governor Jeb Bush
4. Formor Governor and current Senator Arnold Schwarzenegger(if they change the Constiution)
5.Senator Mike Steele
6. Condi Rice
7.Governor Mark Sanford
8.Governor Jim Nussle 

[Nym90]

Devos for President? Now that's getting a tad ahead of ourselves, not to mention it's a bit laughable.

[Kevin]

My list for the Democrats assuming the Republicans win

1.Senator Barack Obama
2.Governor Ted Strickland
3.Governor Rod Blagojevich
4.Governor Elliot Spitzer
5.Senator Evan Bayh
5.Formor Governor Mark Warner
6.Senator Bob Casey
7.Senator Harold Ford
8.Governor Clarie Mccskill  

[Kevin]

Devos for President? Now that's getting a tad ahead of ourselves, not to mention it's a bit laughable.

Why do you say that?

[Nym90]

Devos for President? Now that's getting a tad ahead of ourselves, not to mention it's a bit laughable.

Why do you say that?

Well my own bias is part of it, but I can't see Devos playing well on the national stage even if he does happen to win in Michigan. If he does win it'll only be because of Granholm's failings, not his own success.

[Kevin]

Devos for President? Now that's getting a tad ahead of ourselves, not to mention it's a bit laughable.

Why do you say that?

How is a poor canidate?

Well my own bias is part of it, but I can't see Devos playing well on the national stage even if he does happen to win in Michigan. If he does win it'll only be because of Granholm's failings, not his own success.

[Nym90]

Well he's pretty uncharismatic and he really only represents corporate America. He's fairly out of touch with the average citizen. I just don't see him as Presidential material.

[Kevin]

He kind of strikes me as Warnersque if you ask me because isn't Mark Warner both of those things and look where it got him. I think DeVos could make it politcaly

[nini2287]

6.Senator Bob Casey 

No way.  I don't think Casey has a real interest in national politics, he's just running for Senate this year at the request of Reid/Schumer and to bolster his chances for a 2010 Governor race.  He would be a terrible candidate.  The guy makes Kerry look both charismatic and decisive.

My lists would include

DEMOCRATS
Sen. Hillary Clinton (if she's demolished in '08)
Gov. Mark Warner (he may run again in '09 if he loses the nomination)
Gov. Elliot Spitzer (I know someone who met him and he thinks that Spitzer wants to be President)
Fmr. Gov. Ed Rendell
Gov. Ted Strickland
Sen. Russ Feingold
Sen. Evan Bayh
Fmr. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius
Gov. Rod Blagojevich
Sen. Byron Dorgan
Sen. Barbara Boxer
Gov. Tony Knowles
Fmr. Gov. Janet Napotalino
Sen. Mark Pryor
Sen. Ken Salazar
Gov. Brian Schweitzer

REPUBLICANS
Fmr. Sen. Susan Collins
Fmr. Mayor Michael Bloomberg
Fmr. Gov. Robert Ehrlich
Sen. John Sununu
Sen. George Allen
Fmr. Gov. Tim Pawlenty
Fmr. Gov. Haley Barbour
Sen. David Vitter
Fmr. Sen. Sam Brownback
Sen. John Thune

[Joe Biden 2020]

6.Senator Bob Casey 

No way.  I don't think Casey has a real interest in national politics, he's just running for Senate this year at the request of Reid/Schumer and to bolster his chances for a 2010 Governor race.  He would be a terrible candidate.  The guy makes Kerry look both charismatic and decisive.

My lists would include

DEMOCRATS
Sen. Hillary Clinton (if she's demolished in '08)
Gov. Mark Warner (he may run again in '09 if he loses the nomination)
Gov. Elliot Spitzer (I know someone who met him and he thinks that Spitzer wants to be President)
Fmr. Gov. Ed Rendell
Gov. Ted Strickland
Sen. Russ Feingold
Sen. Evan Bayh
Fmr. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius
Gov. Rod Blagojevich
Sen. Byron Dorgan
Sen. Barbara Boxer
Gov. Tony Knowles
Fmr. Gov. Janet Napotalino
Sen. Mark Pryor
Sen. Ken Salazar
Gov. Brian Schweitzer

REPUBLICANS
Fmr. Sen. Susan Collins
Fmr. Mayor Michael Bloomberg
Fmr. Gov. Robert Ehrlich
Sen. John Sununu
Sen. George Allen
Fmr. Gov. Tim Pawlenty
Fmr. Gov. Haley Barbour
Sen. David Vitter
Fmr. Sen. Sam Brownback
Sen. John Thune

Depending on how big he wins in November 2006, I wouldn't count out then Former Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry as a possible contender in 2012 or 2016.  The bigger he wins the better his chances.  His only hinderance is he's young, age 43 right now.

[Kevin]

6.Senator Bob Casey 

No way.  I don't think Casey has a real interest in national politics, he's just running for Senate this year at the request of Reid/Schumer and to bolster his chances for a 2010 Governor race.  He would be a terrible candidate.  The guy makes Kerry look both charismatic and decisive.

My lists would include

DEMOCRATS
Sen. Hillary Clinton (if she's demolished in '08)
Gov. Mark Warner (he may run again in '09 if he loses the nomination)
Gov. Elliot Spitzer (I know someone who met him and he thinks that Spitzer wants to be President)
Fmr. Gov. Ed Rendell
Gov. Ted Strickland
Sen. Russ Feingold
Sen. Evan Bayh
Fmr. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius
Gov. Rod Blagojevich
Sen. Byron Dorgan
Sen. Barbara Boxer
Gov. Tony Knowles
Fmr. Gov. Janet Napotalino
Sen. Mark Pryor
Sen. Ken Salazar
Gov. Brian Schweitzer

REPUBLICANS
Fmr. Sen. Susan Collins
Fmr. Mayor Michael Bloomberg
Fmr. Gov. Robert Ehrlich
Sen. John Sununu
Sen. George Allen
Fmr. Gov. Tim Pawlenty
Fmr. Gov. Haley Barbour
Sen. David Vitter
Fmr. Sen. Sam Brownback
Sen. John Thune

What about Senator Mike Steele, or Former Governor Jeb Bush?

[nini2287]

What about Senator Mike Steele, or Former Governor Jeb Bush?

I forgot about Bush, he'll need to stay relevant somehow for the next six years though.  As it stands now, Mike Steele will not be elected.  I like him and I'd like to see him in political office, but after this upcoming loss, he's gonna need to take some time off and figure out how to run a campaign before trying anything else.

Depending on how big he wins in November 2006, I wouldn't count out then Former Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry as a possible contender in 2012 or 2016.  The bigger he wins the better his chances.  His only hinderance is he's young, age 43 right now.

I thought about including Henry and I forget why I didn't include him, but he's certainly a possibility.  It would be good for Henry to get some sort of foreign policy experience before running for President though, which may be tough being a Democrat from Oklahoma.

[Kevin]

What about Senator Mike Steele, or Former Governor Jeb Bush?

I forgot about Bush, he'll need to stay relevant somehow for the next six years though.  As it stands now, Mike Steele will not be elected.  I like him and I'd like to see him in political office, but after this upcoming loss, he's gonna need to take some time off and figure out how to run a campaign before trying anything else.

Depending on how big he wins in November 2006, I wouldn't count out then Former Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry as a possible contender in 2012 or 2016.  The bigger he wins the better his chances.  His only hinderance is he's young, age 43 right now.

I thought about including Henry and I forget why I didn't include him, but he's certainly a possibility.  It would be good for Henry to get some sort of foreign policy experience before running for President though, which may be tough being a Democrat from Oklahoma.

Why do you say Steele is going to lose?

[nini2287]

What about Senator Mike Steele, or Former Governor Jeb Bush?

I forgot about Bush, he'll need to stay relevant somehow for the next six years though.  As it stands now, Mike Steele will not be elected.  I like him and I'd like to see him in political office, but after this upcoming loss, he's gonna need to take some time off and figure out how to run a campaign before trying anything else.

Depending on how big he wins in November 2006, I wouldn't count out then Former Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry as a possible contender in 2012 or 2016.  The bigger he wins the better his chances.  His only hinderance is he's young, age 43 right now.

I thought about including Henry and I forget why I didn't include him, but he's certainly a possibility.  It would be good for Henry to get some sort of foreign policy experience before running for President though, which may be tough being a Democrat from Oklahoma.

Why do you say Steele is going to lose?

1)  Maryland is a deep blue state and likes to elect Democrats to Congress.

2)  Cardin will likely win the primary and is a good candidate for Maryland.

3)  As jamespol said, being black does not help.

4)  Steele is running a horrible campaign.  He's made a number of gaffes such as saying an (R) next to your name is a "Scarlet Letter" and then backing down calling Bush his "homeboy" and comparing abortion/stemcell research to the Holocaust in front of a group of Jews.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Here are my frontrunners that I believe no one has mentioned (w/their current position):  *Some of them might be out there, but who would've predicted Bush in 2000 before the 1994 election?*

GOP:
Rep. Tom Tancredo (CO-6)
Rep. Peter King (NY-3)
Rep. Scott Garrett (NJ-5)
Gov. Mitch Daniels (IN)
Sen. Mel Martinez (FL)
Sen. Jack Ensign (NV)

DEM:
Rep. Mark Udall (CO-2)
Sen. Jack Reed (RI)
Rep. Jim Matheson (UT-2)
Gov. Mike Easley (NC)
Gov. Joe Manchin (WV)
Gov. Bill Richardson (NM)

Just a thought