Larger midterm victory: 1958 for the Democrats or 1994 for the Republicans

[Mr.Phips]

I’d group them both in with 1974 and 2010 in terms of long term consequences.  1958 gave Democrats congressional and state level wins that basically made it impossible for Republicans to win the House again any time soon.  1974 augmented this long term Dem advantage.  Republicans wouldn’t control the House after this until 1994.

1994 gave Republicans a majority in the House and brought them to near parity at the state legislative level and made it impossible for Dems to win the House absent extremely favorable fluke situations (2006 and 2008).  2010 then knocked Dems back even further than 1994 did and actually made Republicans dominant at the state level for the first time since the 1920s.  Again this made it so Democrats were even more of a permanent minority than before not only in the House, but at the state legislative level.  Even in a Dem wave in 2018, Republicans still dominated state legislatures, which was not the case in the 2006 and 2008 Dem waves.  Dems were only able to briefly win the House in 2018 and 2020 (barely) due to a short term reaction against Donald Trump being President.

If 1994 was 1958 and 2010 was 1974, what is 2022?  Seems like Dems keep getting hit with these waves that knock them down further and further (1994, 2010, 2014, 2022) while Republicans only had two (1958 and 1974) that hit them.  You could throw 1982 in there, but that election still didn’t push Republicans down to their 1958/1974 levels in the House and state legislatures.  In fact, Republicans actually lost less ground in the House and state legislatures in 1982 than they gained in 1980.

[Mr.Phips]

If 1994 was 1958 and 2010 was 1974, what is 2022?  Seems like Dems keep getting hit with these waves that knock them down further and further (1994, 2010, 2014, 2022) while Republicans only had two (1958 and 1974) that hit them.  You could throw 1982 in there, but that election still didn’t push Republicans down to their 1958/1974 levels in the House and state legislatures.  In fact, Republicans actually lost less ground in the House and state legislatures in 1982 than they gained in 1980.

Keep in mind democrats made huge gains in 1964 as well while republicans since 1994 haven’t had a presidential cycle where they have made huge gains

Dems haven’t either since 1964.  Dem gains in 2008 (22) weren’t that much more than the Republican gains in 2020 (13).

[Mr.Phips]

If 1994 was 1958 and 2010 was 1974, what is 2022?  Seems like Dems keep getting hit with these waves that knock them down further and further (1994, 2010, 2014, 2022) while Republicans only had two (1958 and 1974) that hit them.  You could throw 1982 in there, but that election still didn’t push Republicans down to their 1958/1974 levels in the House and state legislatures.  In fact, Republicans actually lost less ground in the House and state legislatures in 1982 than they gained in 1980.

Keep in mind democrats made huge gains in 1964 as well while republicans since 1994 haven’t had a presidential cycle where they have made huge gains

Dems haven’t either since 1964.  Dem gains in 2008 (22) weren’t that much more than the Republican gains in 2020 (13).

What are you talking about? 2008 was such a good year for House Democrats that they flipped a House seat in IDAHO. Also bear in mind that they were coming off a 30 seat gain in the 2006 cycle.

Those gains were quickly reversed, unlike the Republican gains of 1994 and 2010, or the Dem gains of 1958 and 1974.

[Mr.Phips]

1994 and it isn't close.

1958 was sort of a "return to the status quo" in that Democrats had control of the House from 1931 to 1995 with only two non-consecutive interruptions.

1994 ended what was almost 65 years of uninterrupted power, and Democrats didn't gain back control for 12 years.

1958 still put Dems at their largest majorities since 1936.