Larger midterm victory: 1958 for the Democrats or 1994 for the Republicans
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:51:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Larger midterm victory: 1958 for the Democrats or 1994 for the Republicans
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Larger Midterm Victory
#1
1958
 
#2
1994
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 35

Author Topic: Larger midterm victory: 1958 for the Democrats or 1994 for the Republicans  (Read 645 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 06, 2021, 05:51:38 PM »

Its not surprising that these two midterms ended up in the finals of the largest midterm wins since WW2 but which one was the largest, was it 1958 or 1994.


This is pretty close imo as both elections had long lasting effects with 1958 basically leading to Democrats dominating congress until 1994 and the effects of 1994 are still arguably affecting us today. Numerically the Democrats clearly did better at the senate level in 1958 and the GOP clearly did better at the gubernatorial level in 1994 but Ill give 1958 the edge as while the GOP gained more house seats in 1994 than the Dems did in 1958 that was more due to the fact that the GOP had much more seats they could gain since they already didnt have the majority
Logged
Orser67
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,947
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2021, 01:11:49 PM »

Both are reasonable choices for the biggest mid-term victory since WW2, and it's a fun coincidence that 1994 ended the long-term Democratic majority that, to a large degree, was created (or at least cemented) by their gains in 1958.

I think I'd go with 1994 because its long-term impact on Congress was even bigger than that of 1958; after generally being out of power since WW2, congressional Republicans have generally controlled the House and have had the Senate about half of the time. At the state level, I can't speak confidently about 1958, but 1994 was a definitely a big win for Republicans and contributed to long-term realignments in large states like FL and TX.
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2021, 01:28:14 PM »

These are definitely the right two finalists. 1994 got my vote simply because it's hard to see an election reversing all of its effects, when in a sense 1994 itself went some way to doing that for 1958, 1982 etc.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2021, 02:15:20 AM »

Wonder what others think
Logged
progressive85
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,312
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2021, 05:50:10 AM »

I say 1994.  1958's gains were reversed in 1960 where Democrats lost a lot of seats in the House despite barely (and that's controversial itself) winning the Presidency.  It was a short-time bounce.  Only after Kennedy's assassination in '63 and LBJ's landslide in '64 did the Democrats have enough votes to really pass the huge Great Society agenda, which included many landmark laws.  I will say that the Senate 1958 results gave Democrats an edge for years in keeping the Senate since they did very VERY well in those Senate races, but if you look at the 6 years before that (1952) that was a Republican year and the 6 before that (1946) that was a really Republican year, so there were vulnerable R incumbents that would not survive a Democratic wave.

1994 had this Earth-shattering (at the time) quality to it because for 40 whole years the Republicans were the minority in the House (and even in the Senate, only had it for the first 6 years under Reagan), so it was a major shift in power, and it forced Bill Clinton to become quite conservative in passing much of what Newt Gingrich wanted (you could say that it also helped him win re-election in '96 because he now had a villain to run against).
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2021, 08:56:30 AM »

I’d group them both in with 1974 and 2010 in terms of long term consequences.  1958 gave Democrats congressional and state level wins that basically made it impossible for Republicans to win the House again any time soon.  1974 augmented this long term Dem advantage.  Republicans wouldn’t control the House after this until 1994.

1994 gave Republicans a majority in the House and brought them to near parity at the state legislative level and made it impossible for Dems to win the House absent extremely favorable fluke situations (2006 and 2008).  2010 then knocked Dems back even further than 1994 did and actually made Republicans dominant at the state level for the first time since the 1920s.  Again this made it so Democrats were even more of a permanent minority than before not only in the House, but at the state legislative level.  Even in a Dem wave in 2018, Republicans still dominated state legislatures, which was not the case in the 2006 and 2008 Dem waves.  Dems were only able to briefly win the House in 2018 and 2020 (barely) due to a short term reaction against Donald Trump being President.

If 1994 was 1958 and 2010 was 1974, what is 2022?  Seems like Dems keep getting hit with these waves that knock them down further and further (1994, 2010, 2014, 2022) while Republicans only had two (1958 and 1974) that hit them.  You could throw 1982 in there, but that election still didn’t push Republicans down to their 1958/1974 levels in the House and state legislatures.  In fact, Republicans actually lost less ground in the House and state legislatures in 1982 than they gained in 1980.
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,362
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2021, 09:15:21 AM »

I'd go with 1994.  

My dad talks about a time when "Democrats always held the House.  It was the Senate that was sometimes up for grabs".  

While I can't speak much to either election cycle from a personal standpoint, 1994 absolutely rocked the foundation of Congress.  Pigs had flown -- the Republicans had found a way to win control of the House (and ousted the sitting Speaker to boot).  

It was also a pretty significant cultural and tactical shift for the Republicans.  While partisanship was not a new thing, the right turned up the dial on "our enemy, the left"-type rhetoric.  The '94 Republican Revolution is a big part of the reason that, outside of 2008, I cannot envision an America where people vote on the issues and not their team winning. 

 
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2021, 12:18:20 PM »

I'd go with 1994.  

My dad talks about a time when "Democrats always held the House.  It was the Senate that was sometimes up for grabs".  

While I can't speak much to either election cycle from a personal standpoint, 1994 absolutely rocked the foundation of Congress.  Pigs had flown -- the Republicans had found a way to win control of the House (and ousted the sitting Speaker to boot).  

It was also a pretty significant cultural and tactical shift for the Republicans.  While partisanship was not a new thing, the right turned up the dial on "our enemy, the left"-type rhetoric.  The '94 Republican Revolution is a big part of the reason that, outside of 2008, I cannot envision an America where people vote on the issues and not their team winning. 

 


What’s even so stunning about 1994 is now some of the effects were immediately known . Many commentators even talk about how Newt wants to run the House in a parliamentary system way rather than the traditional way how it’s run .


Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2021, 12:20:19 PM »


If 1994 was 1958 and 2010 was 1974, what is 2022?  Seems like Dems keep getting hit with these waves that knock them down further and further (1994, 2010, 2014, 2022) while Republicans only had two (1958 and 1974) that hit them.  You could throw 1982 in there, but that election still didn’t push Republicans down to their 1958/1974 levels in the House and state legislatures.  In fact, Republicans actually lost less ground in the House and state legislatures in 1982 than they gained in 1980.


Keep in mind democrats made huge gains in 1964 as well while republicans since 1994 haven’t had a presidential cycle where they have made huge gains
Logged
junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,396
Croatia
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2021, 03:26:58 PM »

1994
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2021, 03:30:09 PM »


If 1994 was 1958 and 2010 was 1974, what is 2022?  Seems like Dems keep getting hit with these waves that knock them down further and further (1994, 2010, 2014, 2022) while Republicans only had two (1958 and 1974) that hit them.  You could throw 1982 in there, but that election still didn’t push Republicans down to their 1958/1974 levels in the House and state legislatures.  In fact, Republicans actually lost less ground in the House and state legislatures in 1982 than they gained in 1980.


Keep in mind democrats made huge gains in 1964 as well while republicans since 1994 haven’t had a presidential cycle where they have made huge gains

Dems haven’t either since 1964.  Dem gains in 2008 (22) weren’t that much more than the Republican gains in 2020 (13).
Logged
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,985
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2021, 03:36:45 PM »


If 1994 was 1958 and 2010 was 1974, what is 2022?  Seems like Dems keep getting hit with these waves that knock them down further and further (1994, 2010, 2014, 2022) while Republicans only had two (1958 and 1974) that hit them.  You could throw 1982 in there, but that election still didn’t push Republicans down to their 1958/1974 levels in the House and state legislatures.  In fact, Republicans actually lost less ground in the House and state legislatures in 1982 than they gained in 1980.


Keep in mind democrats made huge gains in 1964 as well while republicans since 1994 haven’t had a presidential cycle where they have made huge gains

Dems haven’t either since 1964.  Dem gains in 2008 (22) weren’t that much more than the Republican gains in 2020 (13).

What are you talking about? 2008 was such a good year for House Democrats that they flipped a House seat in IDAHO. Also bear in mind that they were coming off a 30 seat gain in the 2006 cycle.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2021, 03:45:11 PM »

1994, because it had a much wider impact in policy change. I think the lasting policy change impact should also be included in such question, not just the raw numbers in seat flip or electoral votes.

However, I've always wondered why 1958 was such a Democratic wave despite the president not being very unpopular. There was a mild recession that year though.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,602
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2021, 03:46:52 PM »

If the 1976 congressional elections had been a fusion of 1958 and 1994, the GOP would have a net gain of 5 house seats. However Democrats would pick up up to 7 senate seats. The GOP would pick up up to 4 state governorships.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2021, 03:54:03 PM »


If 1994 was 1958 and 2010 was 1974, what is 2022?  Seems like Dems keep getting hit with these waves that knock them down further and further (1994, 2010, 2014, 2022) while Republicans only had two (1958 and 1974) that hit them.  You could throw 1982 in there, but that election still didn’t push Republicans down to their 1958/1974 levels in the House and state legislatures.  In fact, Republicans actually lost less ground in the House and state legislatures in 1982 than they gained in 1980.


Keep in mind democrats made huge gains in 1964 as well while republicans since 1994 haven’t had a presidential cycle where they have made huge gains

Dems haven’t either since 1964.  Dem gains in 2008 (22) weren’t that much more than the Republican gains in 2020 (13).

What are you talking about? 2008 was such a good year for House Democrats that they flipped a House seat in IDAHO. Also bear in mind that they were coming off a 30 seat gain in the 2006 cycle.

Those gains were quickly reversed, unlike the Republican gains of 1994 and 2010, or the Dem gains of 1958 and 1974.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2021, 04:21:58 PM »

1994, because it had a much wider impact in policy change. I think the lasting policy change impact should also be included in such question, not just the raw numbers in seat flip or electoral votes.

However, I've always wondered why 1958 was such a Democratic wave despite the president not being very unpopular. There was a mild recession that year though.

You could argue that 1958 gave Democrats the majorities needed to later pass the Great Society as well.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,812
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2021, 07:46:16 PM »

1994 and it isn't close.

1958 was sort of a "return to the status quo" in that Democrats had control of the House from 1931 to 1995 with only two non-consecutive interruptions.

1994 ended what was almost 65 years of uninterrupted power, and Democrats didn't gain back control for 12 years.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2021, 07:51:26 PM »

1994 and it isn't close.

1958 was sort of a "return to the status quo" in that Democrats had control of the House from 1931 to 1995 with only two non-consecutive interruptions.

1994 ended what was almost 65 years of uninterrupted power, and Democrats didn't gain back control for 12 years.


1958 still put Dems at their largest majorities since 1936.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.041 seconds with 13 queries.