There isn't some magical force saying a state will magically become more republican cause of "MUH blue collar whites". Democrats with the right message, national neviorment and opponents can win the state back.
Well, yes?. It isn’t “blue collar whites”, but more so “Non-College educated” whites as it is education, which is more and more becoming the main fault line in American politics, that is the sticking point. The more educated you are, the more likely you are to identify/ vote for Democrats, and vise versa for Republicans. This trend has accelerated in recent years. Only about 28% of people in Ohio have a bachelor’s degree (or greater), that’s on par with states like Missouri, North Dakota, and Wyoming.
Just look at this country map detailing the statewide degree attainment rate in each country, from the Ohio Department of Higher Education’s 2019 attainment report:
The counties with the lowest attainment rates (sub 25%) are the ones that have swung the hardest to the right over that past decade. (And of course, the ones with a higher than average attainment rate have moved towards the Democrats as of recent, notably Delaware County.
It isn’t a “magical force”, but it’s pretty obvious that their is a correlation between a state having a lower amount of degree holders, and the state becoming more Republican. Which is exactly the case in Ohio. The right “message” or “opponent” won’t change that. And sure, Ohio could flip with the right national environment, but given that said environment would have to be D+13 or more, it’s pretty safe to say that Ohio is Safe R.
