More likely to flip: CA-25 or MN-03?

[I’m not Stu]

Who is more likely to lose: Mike Garcia or Dean Phillips?

[Chips]

CA-25.

[Frenchrepublican]

It depends of how redistricting will play out, if MN loses a seat it is possible that MN 3rd will become more exurban and thus more conservative leaning.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The one where I work

[I’m not Stu]

The one where I work

I think that's CA-25, which part of your avatar is located in. Is that correct?

[Vosem]

As currently phrased, CA-25 to Democrats overwhelmingly. California requires districts be numbered in a geographic pattern (from north to south), and so given even very small shifts in the map much of the numbering may be very different from decade to decade. Since a randomly selected California seat is quite Democratic, "CA-25" is quite likely to back Democrats in 2022. (By contrast, MN's numbering tends to be quite consistent from decade to decade, so MN-3 will still be roughly the same seat. While my understanding is that it will need to pick up some Republican territory as a result of the state likely losing a seat, it still only becomes a likely pickup in more optimistic, 2010-scale Republican midterm scenarios.)

So, CA-25 to Democrats. (This question might be more usefully phrased as "if the district boundaries and numbering were preserved, which would be likelier". I think still CA-25 to Democrats, but it's a close call.)

[Mr.Phips]

As currently phrased, CA-25 to Democrats overwhelmingly. California requires districts be numbered in a geographic pattern (from north to south), and so given even very small shifts in the map much of the numbering may be very different from decade to decade. Since a randomly selected California seat is quite Democratic, "CA-25" is quite likely to back Democrats in 2022. (By contrast, MN's numbering tends to be quite consistent from decade to decade, so MN-3 will still be roughly the same seat. While my understanding is that it will need to pick up some Republican territory as a result of the state likely losing a seat, it still only becomes a likely pickup in more optimistic, 2010-scale Republican midterm scenarios.)

So, CA-25 to Democrats. (This question might be more usefully phrased as "if the district boundaries and numbering were preserved, which would be likelier". I think still CA-25 to Democrats, but it's a close call.)

As currently drawn, MN-03 likely even stays Dem in a 2022 equivalent of 2010/2014. Biden won here by 20 points and in 2010 and 2014, Republicans didn’t pick up any seats where Obama won by that much.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

The one where I work

I think that's CA-25, which part of your avatar is located in. Is that correct?

LordRichard is a Garcia staffer iirc

[Stuart98]

Again, how is this a question? It's CA-25. MN02 is more likely to get substantially redder in redistricting than MN03 is.

[Xing]

Unless MN-03 gets more Republican-leaning with redistricting, it’s not flipping unless 2022 is a much more massive wave than 2010, so CA-25 by default.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The one where I work

I think that's CA-25, which part of your avatar is located in. Is that correct?

LordRichard is a Garcia staffer iirc

Indeed, mentioned in my signature as well. Mike's dead, that's it, go home everybody.

[Del Tachi]

Impossible to answer without seeing what maps get drawn, since I think Garcia's seat could very easily get cut

[LiberalDem19]

Again, how is this a question? It's CA-25. MN02 is more likely to get substantially redder in redistricting than MN03 is.

If MN-02 moves into Rochester/Winona or up into Washington County it probably becomes Lean DFL

[I’m not Stu]

Impossible to answer without seeing what maps get drawn, since I think Garcia's seat could very easily get cut

I don’t think Garcia’s seat gets cut. It’s far easier to put most of Long Beach in CA-44 and make CA-47 take in Huntington Beach.

[beesley]

Impossible to answer without seeing what maps get drawn, since I think Garcia's seat could very easily get cut

I don’t think Garcia’s seat gets cut. It’s far easier to put most of Long Beach in CA-44 and make CA-47 take in Huntington Beach.

His seat can still become Lean D without being cut, just cut out the Ventura Co. portions or some of the north and guide it more southwards. Whether that's likely or not someone else would be better placed to answer.