Wyoming Rule using 2018 data

[vileplume]

Seen as I had more free time than normal last year, I decided to have a go at redrawing the House using the Wyoming Rule i.e. 1 congressional seat is allocated to the smallest state (currently Wyoming) and the rest of the states are allocated seats equal to how many times the population of Wyoming that they have (rounded). This means that the number of members of the House will fluctuate up and down over time but using the 2018 data (as it's the most up-to-date one on DRA) the House comes out at a very nice 550 members. Someone has probably done something like this before but this is my attempt:

Allocation of districts by State:

Wyoming: 1
Vermont: 1
Alaska: 1
North Dakota: 1
South Dakota: 1
Delaware: 2
Rhode Island: 2
Montana: 2
Maine: 2
New Hampshire: 2
Hawaii: 2
West Virginia: 3
Idaho: 3
Nebraska: 3
New Mexico: 4
Kansas: 5
Mississippi: 5
Arkansas: 5
Nevada: 5
Iowa: 5
Utah: 5
Connecticut: 6
Oklahoma: 7
Oregon: 7
Kentucky: 8
Louisiana: 8
Alabama: 8
South Carolina: 9
Minnesota: 9
Colorado: 10
Wisconsin: 10
Maryland: 10
Missouri: 10
Indiana: 11
Tennessee: 11
Massachusetts: 12
Arizona: 12
Washington: 13
Virginia: 14
New Jersey: 15
Michigan: 17
North Carolina: 17
Georgia: 18
Ohio: 20
Illinois: 22
Pennsylvania: 22
New York: 34
Florida: 35
Texas: 48
California: 67

In drawing the districts, I have focussed on ensuring compact districts whilst keeping counties/cities/towns etc. together where possible. I have complied with the VRA in the relevant Southern States, ensuring at least 1 majority African American district exists in all of them. I have also tried to draw minority majority/opportunity districts where I consider it sensible to draw them i.e. when they would be compact and not randomly zigzag across municipal lines e.g. I haven't drawn tendril like seats similar to those that presently exist in north-eastern New Jersey just to create a majority black and a majority Hispanic district.

I ignored partisanship as much as possible whilst drawing these maps but that doesn't mean that all maps are proportional or 'fair'. For reasons of geography some states (e.g. Wisconsin and Indiana) have maps that heavily lean towards the GOP whilst others (notably some of the Plains States, Utah and even Texas) are much more friendly to the Dems.

In rating the partisan lean of each district, I've decided to use a rating system of a victory of 0-5 being 'Tilt', 5-10 being 'Lean', 10-15 being 'Likely' and 15+ being 'Safe'. I will also be using the 2016 presidential figures as opposed to the composite figures as I've noticed that the latter are pretty heavily skewed in many states, primarily due to abnormally good gubernatorial performances for either party (e.g. Maryland and Massachusetts for the GOP, Kentucky and Louisiana for the Dems).
However, some states namely: West Virginia, Mississippi, Connecticut, Alabama, Indiana, New Jersey and New York are missing their 2016 Presidential data on DRA, so I will be using the composite figures for these.

Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota and South Dakota still only have 1 district each so here are the 2016 Presidential results in each:

WY-AL: 21.88-68.17 (R+46.29) Safe GOP
VT-AL: 56.68-30.27 (D+26.41) Safe Dem
AK-AL: 36.50-51.32 (R+14.82) Likely GOP
ND-AL: 27.23-62.96 (R+35.73) Safe GOP
SD-AL: 31.74-61.51 (R+29.77) Safe GOP

Running Total:
1SafeD-0LikelyD-0LeanD-0TiltD-0TiltR-0LeanR-1LikelyR-3SafeR

1 Democrat-4 Republicans

[vileplume]

Delaware (2 Districts)

The first State to gain a new district. A fair map splits the state North-South, with a bombproof Democratic district in the north and a district that leans clearly towards the GOP in the South. Clinton lost the 2nd district by over 10 points but it would've been close in 2020 due Biden's significant Home State boost, though the district would likely have a Republican representative.



DE-1 64.29-30.74 (D+33.55) Safe Dem
DE-2 42.31-53.21 (R+10.90) Likely GOP

Running Total:
2SafeD-0LikelyD-0LeanD-0TiltD-0TiltR-0LeanR-2LikelyR-3SafeR

2 Democrats-5 Republicans

Rhode Island (2 Districts)

Rhode Island keeps is second district though I have changed them somewhat from how they are now. Specifically, I've undone the mild Dem gerrymander and put all of Providence in the 1st district.  The 2nd district still narrowly voted for Clinton (by less than 1%) and should really be a GOP target though in reality given the poor state of the Rhode Island Republican party, it would still be held by Langevin comfortably.



RI-1 63.62-30.15 (D+33.47) Safe Dem
RI-2 46.90-46.03 (D+0.87) Tilt Dem

Running Total:
3SafeD-0LikelyD-0LeanD-1TiltD-0TiltR-0LeanR-2LikelyR-3SafeR

4 Democrats-5 Republicans

Montana (2 Districts)

A straightforward East-West spit with no county splits. Both districts are rated Safe GOP as Trump won both easily though Democrats would stand a shot in the Western 1st district in a good year though it would normally be Republican held in this era of hyper-partisanship.



MT-1 38.45-54.09 (R+15.64) Safe GOP
MT-2 33.27-58.98 (R+25.71) Safe GOP

Running Total:
3SafeD-0LikelyD-0LeanD-1TiltD-0TiltR-0LeanR-2LikelyR-5SafeR

4 Democrats-7 Republicans

[vileplume]

Maine (2 Districts)

The two districts remain roughly the same as they are now except that Lewiston and Augusta switch districts to make the 1st more compact. This improves Trump's margin in the 2nd a tad but the main boon for the GOP here is that Golden no longer lives in this district (he lives in Lewiston) making it more likely that it would be Republican held (although in this political alignment it probably 'should' be a GOP seat anyway).



ME-1 54.08-39.05 (D+15.03) Safe Dem
ME-2 41.17-51.07 (R+9.90) Lean GOP

Running Total:
4SafeD-0LikelyD-0LeanD-1TiltD-0TiltR-1LeanR-2LikelyR-5SafeR

5 Democrats-8 Republicans

New Hampshire (2 Districts)

New Hampshire's two districts are altered to create a sea coast/suburban 1st district and a 'rest of state' 2nd district. but the partisan lean of each remains roughly the same. Whilst the 1st is currently the more Republican of the two, if current trends continue this could change relatively soon...



NH-1 45.68-47.88 (R+2.2) Tilt GOP
NH-2 47.97-45.04 (D+2.93) Tilt Dem

Running Total:
4SafeD-0LikelyD-0LeanD-2TiltD-1TiltR-1LeanR-2LikelyR-5SafeR

6 Democrats-9 Republicans

Hawaii (2 Districts)

A similar map to what exists currently, a Honolulu district and a 'rest of state' district. Not much else to say.



HI-1 63.00-30.51 (D+32.49) Safe Dem
HI-2 61.51-29.61 (D+31.90) Safe Dem

Running Total:
6SafeD-0LikelyD-0LeanD-2TiltD-1TiltR-1LeanR-2LikelyR-5SafeR

8 Democrats-9 Republicans

[vileplume]

West Virginia (3 Districts)

The Wyoming Rule allows West Virginia to keep its 3rd district that it is due to lose. The 3rd stays very similar to how it exists presently but I've completely changed the boundary between the 1st and 2nd as I dislike the way the current 2nd district snakes across the state. The only county split in this map is Pocahontas (between the 2nd and 3rd).



WV-1 33.09-66.91 (R+33.82) Safe GOP
WV-2 33.96-66.04 (R+32.08) Safe GOP
WV-3 28.89-71.11 (R+42.22) Safe GOP

*Note: These are the Composite figures not the 2016 Presidential ones. Here it doesn't make much of a difference as all are Safe R.

Running Total:
6SafeD-0LikelyD-0LeanD-2TiltD-1TiltR-1LeanR-2LikelyR-8SafeR

8 Democrats-12 Republicans

Idaho (3 Districts)

Having one of the highest growth rates of any state, Idaho finally gets its third representative under this system. Boise/Ada County is reunited into one district (the 2nd) which whilst still a Republican district might be a good prospect for the Democrats down the line if current trends continue. The only county split is Canyon (between the 1st and 2nd).

 

ID-1 24.79-65.50 (R+40.71) Safe GOP
ID-2 35.86-51.04 (R+15.18) Safe GOP
ID-3 21.26-61.49 (R+40.23) Safe GOP

Running Total:
6SafeD-0LikelyD-0LeanD-2TiltD-1TiltR-1LeanR-2LikelyR-11SafeR

8 Democrats-15 Republicans

Nebraska (3 Districts)

Nebraska is an example of a state where 'natural geography' helps the Democrats as Republican voters are packed into rural areas. The 1st district is now based in the South-Eastern corner of the state and contains Lancaster and Sarpy Counties which makes it quite a bit bluer than it is now and on the verge of becoming somewhat competitive (especially given the further improvement Biden made in this area). The 2nd does become a point or so more Republican but Biden still won it comfortably. No counties are split in this map.



NE-1 38.47-54.85 (R+16.38) Safe GOP
NE-2 45.44-48.93 (R+3.49) Tilt GOP
NE-3 19.31-75.72 (R+56.41) Safe GOP

Running Total:
6SafeD-0LikelyD-0LeanD-2TiltD-2TiltR-1LeanR-2LikelyR-13SafeR

8 Democrats-18 Republicans

[vileplume]

New Mexico (4 Districts)

Having gained an extra seat the 'Likely GOP' district in the south of the state disappears and is replaced with 2 swing districts, one in the south-west of the state and one in the north-west. The Democrats get a safe urban seat based around Alburquerque, as well as a relatively reliable one covering the city of  Santa Fe and the east of the state (though a GOP upset in a wave can't totally be ruled out). All in all this is a competitive map that could be anywhere between a 4-0 Dem sweep to a 1-3 GOP advantage.

All districts in the state are majority minority. The 1st is majority Hispanic whilst the 3rd and 4th are plurality Hispanic (at ~47% and ~49% respectively). The 2nd is also over a quarter Native American. The only county that's split other than Bernalillo (which is too large to fit into one district) is Santa Fe where the less densely populated south of the county is placed in the 3rd district as opposed to the 4th.

It is also worth noting that whilst Trump narrowly won the 2nd in 2016 whilst narrowly losing the 3rd, in 2020 his performance in the 3rd would've been the better of the two.



NM-1 55.72-31.15 (D+24.57) Safe Dem
NM-2 43.13-43.58 (R+0.45) Tilt GOP
NM-3 44.66-44.53 (D+0.13) Tilt Dem
NM-4 50.03-40.63 (D+9.40) Lean Dem

Running Total:
7SafeD-0LikelyD-1LeanD-3TiltD-3TiltR-1LeanR-2LikelyR-13SafeR

11 Democrats-19 Republicans

Kansas (5 Districts)

Another state where the 'natural geography' has a Democratic bent, as it's theoretically possible for them to win 3/5 districts whilst losing the state-wide popular vote by a significant margin, especially if current trends continue. However at present the Wichita based 2nd district is still likely out of reach though this could change in the years ahead. The 4th district contains the Democratic 'base' areas of Kansas in Douglas and Wyandotte Counties and thus is a district that even Obama won against Romney in 2012. Though it may have voted GOP for congress as late as 2014. The 5th district is almost contiguous with Douglas County (sans a small area in the south west) and would be a swingy seat and a Trump '16 - Biden '20 district. Sharice Davids would probably (but not certainly) still represent it though she'd be higher up the GOP's 2022 hit list due to her district no longer containing Wyondotte County.

No counties in this map are split other than Douglas, which is slightly too large to fit into just one district.



KS-1 21.31-72.34 (R+51.03) Safe GOP
KS-2 34.98-56.02 (R+21.04) Safe GOP
KS-3 26.55-66.45 (R+39.90) Safe GOP
KS-4 49.48-42.24 (D+7.24) Lean Dem
KS-5 44.22-46.65 (R+2.43) Tilt GOP

Running Total:
7SafeD-0LikelyD-2LeanD-3TiltD-4TiltR-1LeanR-2LikelyR-16SafeR

12 Democrats-23 Republicans

[vileplume]

Mississippi (5 Districts)

Due to the distribution of African American voters in the rural parts of the state it's easy to draw 2 black majority districts even without having to resort to 'creative' lines. The first majority black district (the 2nd) is based the delta, whilst the second (the 3rd) is based on Jackson and the south-west of the state. Whilst both of these districts would contain substantial white/GOP minorities, given how inelastic Mississippi is both in practice would be reliable Democratic districts. The other 3 districts would obviously be very safe for the GOP.

The only counties split are Carroll (between the 1st and 2nd) and Stone (between the 4th and 5th)

 

MS-1 35.88-64.12 (R+28.24) Safe GOP
MS-2 55.36-44.64 (D+10.72) Likely Dem
MS-3 54.81-45.19 (D+9.62) Lean Dem
MS-4 33.67-66.33 (R+32.66) Safe GOP
MS-5 31.05-68.95 (R+37.90) Safe GOP

*Note: These are the Composite figures, not the 2016 Presidential ones.

Running Total:
7SafeD-1LikelyD-3LeanD-3TiltD-4TiltR-1LeanR-2LikelyR-19SafeR

14 Democrats-26 Republicans

Arkansas (5 Districts)

Arkansas with 5 districts has a swingy Trump'16 - Biden'20 seat (the 2nd) based around Little Rock. The other districts are reliably GOP though the best of these on paper for the Democrats is the 4th, which is based on the south of the state and the Delta and is 35.43% black. However this district is trending GOP and the best opportunity for a second Democratic seat in the state (as unlikely as this may be) longterm might actually be the north-western based 3rd due to the recent pro-Democratic trends in Washington and Benton counties.

The only county in the state that's split is Boone (between the 1st and 3rd).



AR-1 22.63-71.76 (R+49.13) Safe GOP
AR-2 46.53-47.54 (R+1.01) Tilt GOP
AR-3 32.21-59.99 (R+27.78) Safe GOP
AR-4 40.65-55.74 (R+15.09) Safe GOP
AR-5 25.94-68.21 (R+42.27) Safe GOP

Running Total:
7SafeD-1LikelyD-3LeanD-3TiltD-5TiltR-1LeanR-2LikelyR-23SafeR

14 Democrats-31 Republicans

[vileplume]

Nevada (5 Districts)

The map in Nevada slightly leans towards the GOP due to the natural pack of Democratic voters in the Vegas metro area where the party is guaranteed 2 safe seats (the 2nd and 3rd). The 4th is a safely GOP district covering the sparsely populated rural counties of the state as well as the Republican voting north-western section of the Las Vagas metro (Summerlin, Centennial Hills, Tule Springs etc.). The 1st and 5th are swingy districts that would be highly competitive most political cycles (especially the 1st) although both are to the right of the country. The 1st covers an area similar to the presently existing 3rd but due to its reduced size it is about a point and a half more GOP meaning that Biden likely would've lost the district but Rep. Susie Lee would've hung on. Meanwhile, the 5th covers the populated areas of the west of the state including Reno and the state capital of Carson City and probably would be represented by a Republican even though the Democratic nominee draws close.

The only county split, other than the heavily populated Las Vegas, is Lyon (between the 4th and 5th).





NV-1 45.64-48.32 (R+2.68) Tilt GOP
NV-2 57.63-36.69 (D+20.94) Safe Dem
NV-3 65.08-29.27 (D+35.81) Safe Dem
NV-4 36.65-56.85 (R+20.20) Safe GOP
NV-5 43.00-48.70 (R+5.70) Lean GOP

Running Total:
9SafeD-1LikelyD-3LeanD-3TiltD-6TiltR-2LeanR-2LikelyR-24SafeR

16 Democrats-34 Republicans

Iowa (5 Districts)

Iowa with 5 districts would be heading towards a clear 3-2 split (towards the GOP) however it would have only become this way fairly recently. The 4th district, covering western Iowa, would have long been a Republican seat, whilst the Iowa City-Davenport based 2nd district would have been Democratic held for some time too. However, the other three districts would have been competitive at some point but seem now to be decidedly trending in one direction or the other.

The Des Moines based 5th, whilst traditionally area in which the GOP was competitive, would likely become increasingly secure for Cindy Axne, contrary to the trend of the state as a whole. The 1st and 3rd by contrast, are areas that the Democrats would have been at an advantage in up to the era of Trump. However with the collapse of the Democratic Party in the rural Midwest these seats would be increasingly shifted towards the Republican party. Abby Finkenaur would have drawn close in this version of the 1st district in 2018 but likely still would've lost, whilst Dave Loebsack may well have won in the 3rd in 2018, on the basis of his personal vote, but seen as he lives in Iowa City (and thus would've instead represent the 2nd) this is not at all relevant. Rita Hart would be able to succeed Loebsack in the much more Dem friendly 2nd district though (whilst Miller-Meeks would represent the now reliably GOP 3rd district).

No counties are split in this map.



IA-1 40.96-52.29 (R+11.33) Likely GOP
IA-2 51.72-40.52 (D+11.20) Likely Dem
IA-3 38.33-54.33 (R+16.00) Safe GOP
IA-4 28.78-65.42 (R+36.64) Safe GOP
IA-5 48.60-43.50 (D+5.10) Lean Dem

Running Total:
9SafeD-2LikelyD-4LeanD-3TiltD-6TiltR-2LeanR-3LikelyR-26SafeR

18 Democrats-37 Republicans

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good stuff.

[vileplume]

Utah (5 Districts)

Given how urban much of the state currently is the geography of the state is actually fairly helpful to the Democrats, especially when you consider that the party has proven capable of winning in areas where they are not quite competitive in at the presidential level (or at least not yet). There is one very rural seat (covering a large majority of the land area of the state) containing the most monolithically GOP parts of Utah, although it does have some 'wasted' Democratic votes in counties like Summit, Grand and San Juan.

However, a fair map with 5 districts guarantees the Democrats a safe seat based on Salt Lake City (the 2nd) which would likely be represented by someone much more progressive than Ben McAdams (or similar). However a moderate/conservative Dem could possibly win the 3rd district, which is similar politically to the current 4th and contains many of the same areas but is more compact (wholly contained in Salt Lake county). Trump will have still won this district in 2020 though, seen as looking at the New York Times's precinct he seems to have done better in the parts of Salt Lake county contained in this district (West Valley City, Taylorsville, West, Jordan, South Jordan, Riverton etc.) whilst crashing even further in aforementioned safely Democratic 2nd.

The 1st covers the north of the metro (largest city: Ogden) whilst the 4th is basically contiguous with Utah county (plus a tiny sliver of Salt Lake around Bluffdale) and both districts are obviously still safe for the GOP.

The only county smaller than a district that's split is Davis (between the 1st and 2nd).





UT-1 21.95-47.40 (R+25.45) Safe GOP (minor party vote: 30.65%)
UT-2 47.36-28.88 (D+18.48) Safe Dem  (minor party vote: 23.76%)
UT-3 31.34-39.53 (R+8.19) Lean GOP (minor party vote: 29.13%)
UT-4 14.27-50.70 (R+36.43) Safe GOP (minor party vote: 35.03%)
UT-5 19.20-62.71 (R+43.51) Safe GOP (minor party vote: 18.09%)

Running Total:
10SafeD-2LikelyD-4LeanD-3TiltD-6TiltR-3LeanR-3LikelyR-29SafeR

19 Democrats-41 Republicans

Connecticut (6 Districts)

Because of the Democrats relative strength in rural areas of New England as well as his poor performance in the region in 2020, Trump would've failed to carry any of the 6 districts even though they are fairly drawn. He would've got closest to winning the 6th district, (based on Lichfield County, northern Fairfield County as well as 4 towns from New Haven County: Southbury, Middlebury, Naugatuck and Prospect) which did vote for him in 2016 but flipped to Biden by a margin of ~17.5k votes. Despite this, it's fairly likely that the district would still have a GOP representative as such a person would likely to be able to outrun Trump significantly, particularly in the wealthy towns of Fairfield county.

The other two seats of interest are the 2nd and 3rd district in the much more traditionally Democratic east of the state where the GOP has recently showed some potential. The 2nd is a very similar to district to the 2nd district that currently exists except without the parts of Middlesex and New Haven counties that it currently contains. However, Biden still won the 2nd by ~31.5k votes (up for Clinton's win of only ~7.5k) and especially when you consider personal votes and the fact that the area is more Democratic downballot, there's no reason at all that the seat would have any other representative than Joe Courtney. The 3rd meanwhile covers Middlesex County, the southern suburbs of Hartford as well as the east of New Haven county. This is not a district I'd realistically expect the GOP to win any time soon, its both more Democratic and suburban than the 2nd, but it's the kind of area they will have to flip if they are to become competitive state-wide in Connecticut again.

The other three districts are obviously very safe for the Democrats, though perhaps interestingly the 5th (coastal Fairfield county) is likely, post 2020, the most blue of the three.

I know that counties are less important in New England but I have kept all counties smaller than a district intact: Tolland, Windham and New London are completely in the 2nd, Middlesex is completely in the 3rd and Lichfield is completely in the 6th. Meanwhile the 1st, 4th and 5th are entirely contained within one county (Hartford, New Haven and Fairfield respectively).



CT-1 66.88-33.12 (D+33.76) Safe Dem
CT-2 54.41-45.59 (D+8.82) Lean Dem
CT-3 55.59-44.41 (D+11.18) Likely Dem
CT-4 62.54-37.46 (D+25.08) Safe Dem
CT-5 63.23-36.77 (D+26.46) Safe Dem
CT-6 47.63-52.37 (R+4.74) Tilt GOP

*Note: These are the Composite figures, not the 2016 Presidential ones.

Running Total:
13SafeD-3LikelyD-5LeanD-3TiltD-7TiltR-3LeanR-3LikelyR-29SafeR

24 Democrats-42 Republicans

[Sol]

FYI there's basically no connection between Tooele and Box Elder Counties other than some old dirt mining track--they're essentially noncontiguous.

[vileplume]

Oklahoma (7 Districts)

The first state to pick up 2 districts from the number it has now.

Seen as this is Oklahoma, obviously most of the districts will be safe GOP, however the 5th district is now much more closely wrapped around Oklahoma City and would be a very good prospect for the Democrats. Trump did very narrowly win it in 2016 but it definitely flipped to Biden in 2020 and thus Kendra Horn would've likely held on as her barely overperforming the top of the ticket would not be an issue in this scenario (she'd still be a GOP target in 2022 though). The only seat with any Democratic potential in the foreseeable future is the Tulsa based 1st which like the 5th is stripped of its outer, most staunchly Republican areas. The Little Dixie based 7th district would have likely voted for Democrats downballot up to 2010, but that era is obviously well and truly over, it was Clinton's second worst district in the state (after the much more traditionally Republican 3rd) and thus even a Roy Moore tier Republican candidate would easily win it.

The only county smaller than a district that's split is Cleveland (between the 4th and the 6th).





OK-1 37.70-56.41 (R+18.44) Safe GOP
OK-2 23.02-71.95 (R+48.93) Safe GOP
OK-3 20.36-73.73 (R+53.37) Safe GOP
OK-4 32.07-60.87 (R+28.80) Safe GOP
OK-5 46.04-46.83 (R+0.79) Tilt GOP
OK-6 22.78-72.32 (R+49.54) Safe GOP
OK-7 22.68-73.20 (R+50.52) Safe GOP

Running Total:
13SafeD-3LikelyD-5LeanD-3TiltD-8TiltR-3LeanR-3LikelyR-35SafeR

24 Democrats-49 Republicans

Oregon (7 Districts)

A fair map of Oregon with 7 districts is surprisingly good for the GOP as it appears that most years that they'll get 3/7 of the seats (43% is way better than the 20% they currently have). The 4th is the most vulnerable of the three due to it being by far the most suburban, I mean Linn County is still pretty safe for the GOP but Marion flipped to Biden and the exurban parts of Clackamas County in the district (e.g. Wilsonville) swung strongly that way too. I suspect that Trump still carried the district though, as he won in 2016 by nearly 12% and the swing against him doesn't look quite large enough for a Biden victory in the district. The 6th (covering southern Oregon) is by a significant margin the most Republican as unlike the eastern based 7th (which at least contains Bend) it doesn't have any large Democratic areas, due to Eugene falling in the 5th district whilst Medford typically votes GOP anyway.

The 2nd district is up there with the safest Democratic seats in the country due to it being made up primarily of the city of Portland. The 1st, 3rd and 5th by contrast are much closer to the state-wide average (albeit all to its left) as they contain more demographically mixed areas, though obviously all three are still safe for team blue in this political alignment.





OR-1 54.48-33.38 (D+21.13) Safe Dem
OR-2 79.35-11.47 (D+67.88) Safe Dem
OR-3 52.36-36.33 (D+16.03) Safe Dem
OR-4 38.38-50.08 (R+11.70) Likely GOP
OR-5 51.88-36.32 (D+15.56) Safe Dem
OR-6 33.85-56.19 (R+22.34) Safe GOP
OR-7 36.48-53.39 (R+16.91) Safe GOP

Running Total:
17SafeD-3LikelyD-5LeanD-3TiltD-8TiltR-3LeanR-4LikelyR-37SafeR

28 Democrats-52 Republicans