HR 1 becoming law?

[EastwoodS]

Considering it just passed on party lines (-2)220-(-1)210, it seems unlikely to ever see the light of day outside of the senate unless the filibuster dies. What are the chances Democrats will pass this bill and sign it into law by 2022?

[SnowLabrador]

It's DOA unless the Democrats nuke the filibuster. Which they won't, since Manchin and Sinema care more about Jim Crow tradition than democracy.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would say it has about a 1/3 chance of passing in some form. At some point, it becomes very difficult to try and argue against basic voter rights.

[Virginiá]

It's DOA unless the Democrats nuke the filibuster. Which they won't, since Manchin and Sinema care more about Jim Crow tradition than democracy.

this × 10¹⁵

I get that they have to do this to build political support, refine drafts of the law and hash out the policies, but the fact is, in the end it's all completely useless and just political theater unless they are willing to end the filibuster.

Until then, HR1, real healthcare reform, and anything else that would have a meaningful effect on society absent federal budgets will never go anywhere and America's problems will continue to fester and degrade our society. But that's OK so long as Sinema and Manchin sleep well at night knowing they kept the faux-tradition of the 60 vote threshold going, which the framers CLEARLY wanted and definitely had from the beginning! It's, of course, absolutely and truly not just because they don't want to take hard votes and would rather occupy a cushy Senate seat while doing nothing of note for their constituents or the country, than actually taking a few risks and fixing major problems this country faces.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I saw Adam Schiff on MSNBC and he said D's must pass this bill in order to prevent FL or TX from redrawing Congressional lines, we have an R favored SCOTUS, but Kavanaugh and Roberts aren't Scalia conservatives that's why Trump lost his Appeals during the Election, they are main stream conservatives, like Kennedy, when Redistricting gets to SCOTUS they will give Rs the benefit of the doubt in gerrymandering but there's Latino districts in FL and TX that Rs must take into account.

It's not the end all be all and the Election isn't in 2021, it's in 2022, a D wave isn't out of the question with 53 Senate seats and House D Speaker

History has told us that in order for the outparty to have a successful Midterm, they sweep both VA and NJ 2009 Rs won VA and NJ and 2017 D's took back both. The Rs are gonna lose both, bad sign for them

This isn't 2010/14 when Obamacare was UNPOPULARITY

[_.]

Can't the Democrats just wait out the filibuster?

I mean if the filibuster goes on for, let's say, one year then the people will definitely notice. And if they do notice, public support will likely shift to the bill and against the Republicans. Voting rights good, gerrymandering bad.

Also, it'd put Sinema and Manchin on the spot.

Whatever goes on, the Democrats better strongarm this through somehow if they want to stand a chance in the 2022 House election.

I don't want to live in a district that looks like a double helix in the future.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm no too optimistic. Maybe a weaker version, but the House version will not survive the filibuster. That's one more reason this horrible senate rule must be repealed asap.

[Lambsbread]

Can't the Democrats just wait out the filibuster?

I mean if the filibuster goes on for, let's say, one year then the people will definitely notice. And if they do notice, public support will likely shift to the bill and against the Republicans. Voting rights good, gerrymandering bad.

Also, it'd put Sinema and Manchin on the spot.

Whatever goes on, the Democrats better strongarm this through somehow if they want to stand a chance in the 2022 House election.

I don't want to live in a district that looks like a double helix in the future.

67% of the public already supports this bill:

67 PERCENT OF AMERICANS SUPPORT H.R.1 FOR THE PEOPLE ACT



Even a solid majority of Republicans support this bill (though not in Congress), interestingly enough.

And even if support was weaker, this bill is urgently needed and we can't afford to "wait it out" while the GOP decides what level of public pressure to stop being authoritarian goons will suffice. Now's the time to be aggressive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course they do but there is a Fillibuster and Rs aren't relinquishing until 2023 should we get 52 or 53 seats and keep the House to expand the Crt to 11 not 13 judges, Roberts is a moderate and with a 6/5 Crt he will get rid of gerrymandering, I don't think PR makes it as a state, but DC Statehood will pass, PR is a Commonwealth and stay that way

[Skill and Chance]

I would say it has about a 1/3 chance of passing in some form. At some point, it becomes very difficult to try and argue against basic voter rights.

I could maybe see some standalone minimum county splits in congressional redistricting rule getting to 60 in the senate but that's about it. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

About 2/3, the filibuster is gonna be nuked or (far more likely) heavily weakened.

[RI]

67% of the public already supports this bill:

67 PERCENT OF AMERICANS SUPPORT H.R.1 FOR THE PEOPLE ACT



Even a solid majority of Republicans support this bill (though not in Congress), interestingly enough.

Of course you're going to get 2/3 support with that ridiculous description of the arguments surrounding the bill. What a terrible poll.

[Pollster]

A lot will hinge on what big Dem donors demand of the Congressional leadership. If Schumer is getting calls saying "don't bother asking me for any money if you don't pass this" then he will obviously move swiftly on it.

There's reason to believe donors will want to push for this - they lose all of their tangible influence if the party is destined to be gerrymandered/voter suppressed out of power for the foreseeable future.

[ElectionsGuy]

67% of the public already supports this bill:

67 PERCENT OF AMERICANS SUPPORT H.R.1 FOR THE PEOPLE ACT



Even a solid majority of Republicans support this bill (though not in Congress), interestingly enough.

Of course you're going to get 2/3 support with that ridiculous description of the arguments surrounding the bill. What a terrible poll.

Polling like this is why progressive idiots like Kyle Kulinski believe 70% of the country is on their side lol

[UncleSam]

I’m not going to take any ‘anti-gerrymandering’ effort from Democrats seriously until they propose having computers draw the lines. The truth is Dems just want to gerrymander themselves but without even having to win state legislatures in the first place, which is objectively worse for Democracy than at least having to win something before rigging the system in your favor (though obviously both are awful and need to be done away with).

Banning voter ID laws pretty much falls under the same boat, though IMO Rs are equally bad on this issue. What we need is a centralized SSN list that just registers who voted and where every election, with one centralized voter registration list that gets updated automatically when people turn 18.

So ya basically this law is just pure political hackery outside of the campaign finance reform stuff. Hopefully banning super PACS gains traction on its’ own.

[GALeftist]

67% of the public already supports this bill:

67 PERCENT OF AMERICANS SUPPORT H.R.1 FOR THE PEOPLE ACT



Even a solid majority of Republicans support this bill (though not in Congress), interestingly enough.

Of course you're going to get 2/3 support with that ridiculous description of the arguments surrounding the bill. What a terrible poll.

I actually don't think the phrasing is necessarily inaccurate here, but this is an inaccurate portrayal of opposition. It should read "opponents say it is a borderline communist way for liberal elites in California and New Mexico to get liberal radical socialist Democrat politicians elected in salt of the earth real America to push their communistic, atheistic agenda." Instant ~90% Republican opposition

[Brittain33]

I’m not going to take any ‘anti-gerrymandering’ effort from Democrats seriously until they propose having computers draw the lines. The truth is Dems just want to gerrymander themselves but without even having to win state legislatures in the first place, which is objectively worse for Democracy than at least having to win something before rigging the system in your favor (though obviously both are awful and need to be done away with).

Who decides what algorithm the computer uses?

[lfromnj]

So ya basically this law is just pure political hackery outside of the campaign finance reform stuff. Hopefully banning super PACS gains traction on its’ own.

The Campaign finance means for every dollar idiots give to Amy Mcgrath and Jaime Harrison, the taxpayers have to give 6 more .

[Lognog]

For Manchin and Sinema


Good legislation < filibuster


apply that to literally anything that can't get past the Byrd rule

[7,052,770]

Fairly optimistic that it passes eventually, maybe in 2022. The incentives are just too strong for Democrats not to get it passed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is exactly why Trump got Kennedy to retire and install 3 R judges so they can control Redistricting, they aren't giving up on Reappointment or the Filibuster, Rs

[UncleSam]

I’m not going to take any ‘anti-gerrymandering’ effort from Democrats seriously until they propose having computers draw the lines. The truth is Dems just want to gerrymander themselves but without even having to win state legislatures in the first place, which is objectively worse for Democracy than at least having to win something before rigging the system in your favor (though obviously both are awful and need to be done away with).

Who decides what algorithm the computer uses?

Obviously there would be some basic federal guidelines in terms of county splitting / compactness (as well as VRA), but otherwise just let 538 run everything imo

[MargieCat]

If HR1 and the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act pass, won't the conservative 6-3 SCOTUS just gut them?

[SnowLabrador]

If HR1 and the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act pass, won't the conservative 6-3 SCOTUS just gut them?

Yep. Which is why we also have to expand the court.

[Bootes Void]

I don't know why anyone would give it more than 20% chance of happening