Would Giuliani have beaten Democrats in the NYC tristate area in 2008?

[kwabbit]

He would lose NYC (save for Staten Island), but carry Rockland, Nassau, and Suffolk Counties. Most of North Jersey would probably vote Giuliani, as a lot of Giuliani's base from when he was mayor, moved there. CT might be harder, as there was less of the original Giuliani base who lived there.

Enough for NJ to flip Republican in 2008?

South Jersey was bluer back then, so that would have been just enough to save Obama in the state

Would Giuliani have won Passaic and Middlesex? States that haven't voted GOP since Bush 1988

Yes, but by the skin of his teeth

Wow. I think Obama would have won NJ by 4 points. But Giuliani would have lost the election

What a bizarre back and forth. Obama would've won by at least 10 points regardless of who was the nominee. McCain was a pretty good fit for the state himself, which is how it was kept to Obama +15 in a Dem wave election. Giuliani could've kept it to maybe +11/12, but he would not have caused NJ to vote to the right of the nation.