NC-11: Jasmine Beach-Ferrara is Madison Cawthorn's first challenger

[NewYorkExpress]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/541374-madison-cawthorn-gets-democratic-challenger

Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) has a Democratic challenger for his House seat, with a local county commissioner announcing plans to run against the first-term lawmaker on Wednesday.

“Some people will say, a gay woman who’s a Christian minister just can’t get elected in the South. Not to mention she’s a Democrat,” Jasmine Beach-Ferrara said in her campaign video. “But I say, an insurrectionist, who flirts with Nazis, and fires up a violent crowd to attack our democracy, well, he shouldn’t get reelected anywhere.”

https://twitter.com/jbeachferrara/status/1367104126425976833

In case anyone doesn't know who Beach-Ferrara is, she's a County Commissioner in Buncombe County?

Could one of our North Carolina based posters give us a rundown on her chances?

[SnowLabrador]

Not from North Carolina, but she has no chance. Even if the Democrats were able to gerrymander North Carolina, I don't see a way to make this seat more competitive. We also knew about the sexual misconduct allegations before Cawthorn won by a 12-point margin last year.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Who cares? This is safe R. Madison Cawthorn has the makings of a millennial Trump and will not go anywhere, no matter how much of a lying misogynistic Fascist he continues revealing himself as. 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/541374-madison-cawthorn-gets-democratic-challenger

Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) has a Democratic challenger for his House seat, with a local county commissioner announcing plans to run against the first-term lawmaker on Wednesday.

“Some people will say, a gay woman who’s a Christian minister just can’t get elected in the South. Not to mention she’s a Democrat,” Jasmine Beach-Ferrara said in her campaign video. “But I say, an insurrectionist, who flirts with Nazis, and fires up a violent crowd to attack our democracy, well, he shouldn’t get reelected anywhere.”

https://twitter.com/jbeachferrara/status/1367104126425976833

In case anyone doesn't know who Beach-Ferrara is, she's a County Commissioner in Buncombe County?

Could one of our North Carolina based posters give us a rundown on her chances?

I absolutely love her omg I hope she wins.

(She won’t but let me believe)

[Roll Roons]

It was Trump +12, so this seat is hypothetically possible in a good year for Democrats. 2022 won't be that year.

Regardless, we know that she'll probably raise a ton of money from out of state liberals.

[Not Me, Us]

I see we have 2022's Amy McGrath.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I see we have 2022's Amy McGrath.

The Amy McGrath of 2022 is the person challenging MTG. Our friend Jasmine here is more the Jaime Harrison of 2022.

[Calthrina950]

What are the chances that Cawthorn eventually becomes Dean of the House?

[NewYorkExpress]

What are the chances that Cawthorn eventually becomes Dean of the House?

Unlikely. He's almost certainly either running for Governor in 2024/2028, or running for the Senate as soon as he's eligible and a seat is open (so maybe 2026, or 2028?).

[KaiserDave]

What are the chances that Cawthorn eventually becomes Dean of the House?

0. House is too boring for him.

[Calthrina950]

What are the chances that Cawthorn eventually becomes Dean of the House?

Unlikely. He's almost certainly either running for Governor in 2024/2028, or running for the Senate as soon as he's eligible and a seat is open (so maybe 2026, or 2028?).

This is true. Mark Walker, who's running for the Senate next year, was photographed with Cawthorn a few weeks ago and touted his endorsement. For that matter-and this is on a tangent-who is likely to become the next Dean of the House when Young dies (as he's never going to retire or lose reelection). Will it be Chris Smith?

What are the chances that Cawthorn eventually becomes Dean of the House?

0. House is too boring for him.

That's true. And I myself have said that he's been singled out as a rising star (unfortunately) by the Republican Party.

[Roll Roons]

What are the chances that Cawthorn eventually becomes Dean of the House?

Unlikely. He's almost certainly either running for Governor in 2024/2028, or running for the Senate as soon as he's eligible and a seat is open (so maybe 2026, or 2028?).

This is true. Mark Walker, who's running for the Senate next year, was photographed with Cawthorn a few weeks ago and touted his endorsement. For that matter-and this is on a tangent-who is likely to become the next Dean of the House when Young dies (as he's never going to retire or lose reelection). Will it be Chris Smith?

Almost certainly. Smith's district is already pretty Republican, and he's personally popular, running around 10 points ahead of Trump. By all accounts, he loves his job and won't retire anytime soon. He's technically behind Hal Rogers in seniority, but Rogers is 16 years older than him, so he'll retire or die way before Smith does.

[GALeftist]

I agree that Cawthorn is safe in 2022 but this is not Kentucky tier noncompetitive. On a really good night for Democrats with some slight depolarization, this seat could flip, but that won't happen in 2022 (and maybe not for a very long time).

[Sestak]

GUYS IM RUNNING AGAINST MARY MILLER THE HITLER LADY PLEASE GO FOLLOW ALL OF MY SOCIAL MEDIA AND GIVE ME RECOMMENDATIONS AND EMPTYQUOTE MY POSTS AND GET EVERYONE YOU KNOW TO SEND ME A BUDDY REQUEST ON THE ATLAS FORUM

[NewYorkExpress]

GUYS IM RUNNING AGAINST MARY MILLER THE HITLER LADY PLEASE GO FOLLOW ALL OF MY SOCIAL MEDIA AND GIVE ME RECOMMENDATIONS AND EMPTYQUOTE MY POSTS AND GET EVERYONE YOU KNOW TO SEND ME A BUDDY REQUEST ON THE ATLAS FORUM

Is this your idea of a bad joke?

[Vern]

With the current District lines, she at best gets around 42%. If they move Boone into 11 then around 46% at best.

[Stuart98]

The district has to shed some red areas in redistricting to allow for the creation of a 14th district so it will be more competitive in any map comparably fair to the current one. Unlikely to be enough but Cawthorn's a scandal machine so it's hardly certain.

[nclib]

I would love to see her win. She is quite accomplished and would be much much better than Cawthorn. JBF and I actually grew up together as neighborhood kids. However, she may be too liberal for (at least the current) NC-11.

[nclib]

In case anyone doesn't know who Beach-Ferrara is, she's a County Commissioner in Buncombe County?

Correct.

[Xing]

Great, it'll sure be fun to see Democrats flush millions down the toilet in this race.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Democrats: "We shouldn't throw in the towel just because it may be a bad midterm. We got to at least try in every seat"

Also Democrats: "lol safe r. why bother even trying?"

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1367560434673348608?s=20

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

>gay Christian woman minister

Its like they invented my ideal candidate in a lab. Shame she has no chance.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1367560434673348608?s=20

Terrible Candidate, why the dems nominated a guy who was the chief Lawyer for Gutanoman Bay is beyond me.

[NewYorkExpress]

Cawthorn has decided to run in NC-13 instead.

U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn is changing congressional districts. The first-term Republican will run in Western North Carolina’s newly created 13th Congressional District instead of the 14th Congressional District, which state lawmakers drew with him as the lone incumbent. “We now have a brand new congressional district and as it stands, the new lines have split my constituents,” Cawthorn said in a video posted to Twitter. “My house is almost directly on the line of separation between the 13th and 14th congressional districts and now half the counties in the new district are counties I currently represent.”