PA-7

[J. J.]

Anybody hear about PA-7?  I'm hearing that it's close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It will be posted when we hear something.

[Keystone Phil]

Why did you do this, J.J.? You know Flyers and the others will think they have a shot there now... 

In all seriousness, I think the Dems are really getting their hopes up here. It is one thing to think about PA 6 and 8 but 7 isn't going to happen. Sestak is overrated. This won't be that close (Weldon will win by at least six points).

[J. J.]

I'm hearing that it's close and I'm hearing it from some pro Weldon sources.  I like Weldon, too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm hearing that it's close and I'm hearing it from some pro Weldon sources.  I like Weldon, too.

IIRC the district voted for a Democrat in 1974? (and for a few years after that, but that's not the point).

[TeePee4Prez]

Why did you do this, J.J.? You know Flyers and the others will think they have a shot there now... 

In all seriousness, I think the Dems are really getting their hopes up here. It is one thing to think about PA 6 and 8 but 7 isn't going to happen. Sestak is overrated. This won't be that close (Weldon will win by at least six points).

Your cockiness has bit you in the ass before.  Granted, Sestak is not a shoo-in by any means, but this is a tossup/weak GOP as I see it now.  Just to settle things this is how I see the entire state of PA:

Certain D- 1, 2, 14 

These are districts the Democrats can put up a parking cone and win.

Safe D- 11, 12, 17

I get the feeling Kanjorski will feel some heat with a good candidate.  Murtha will too for some of his comments.  The 17th is a populist-conservative district and Holden is just that, but nonetheless the GOP does well here.  However, it would take a shift of Biblical proportions for the GOP to win here.

Strong D- 13

I have to admit Raj is running a helluva field operation, but some of his comments are boneheaded.  One minute he's Strom Thrumond Jr., and the next he's pathetically blasting Joe Biden over a harmless comment when he was actually complimenting the business acumen of the Indian community.  As seen in 2004 with Melissa Brown, this "Save the Northeast (Philadelphia)" crap and similiar tactics are getting old and Schwartz should widen her margin a few points, but she can't be caught napping either.  If I were the GOP, I would have drafted Al Taubenberger.  At least you would inspire the Enterpriser Republican base in Montco and the pro-life Catholic base in NE Philly. 

Lean D- 6

The fact that I went to bed thinking Lois Murphy won that November night in 2004 in a much more favorable GOP climate makes me think Rendell being an even greater Democratic vote getter along with Bush's extremely anemic approval ratings in Southeast PA (see Survey USA) makes me think this is enough to put Lois over the top.  Jim Gerlach is going for the immigration issue as his bread and butter for now, but I know that district is not really all that anti-immigrant.  Both candidates are trying to distance themselves from Bush and we all know who has the advantage there.

Pure Tossup- 7, 8

If it weren't for the quality (Fitzpatrick) or length of service (Weldon) of the incumbent, I would peg these races as Lean Dem, but unfortunately for me that is not the case.  Some people on here, especially Phil, thinks these are GOP shoo-ins.  Far from it.  Prior to this year, I would not have put Weldon on radar, but now having looked at prior races with a nothing candidate cracking 40% and Weldon's margins eroding each year, this race is defintiely worth a shot to takeover.  Curt Weldon has also made some ludicrous comments and has an ultra-conservative voting record far to the right of his district which has not voted for a GOP Pres since the 1980s.  With the national climate plus Rendell on the top of the ticket, the Democrats have a very good shot of getting this seat with a quality candidate in Joe Sestak.  As for the 8th, I think Fitzpatrick's margin of victory in 2004 wasn't all that great considering the weakness of Ginny Schrader.  The 9/11 effect also had the greatest effect here relative to the rest of Southeast PA.  The Democratic chances here rely heavily on Rendell and Bush's performance here.  The problem for the Democrats is you have a populist lower Bucks base which is trending GOP along with the NE Philly sliver which is not liking the Democrats running the city.  You also have to consider the fact Fitzpatrick's voting record is almost dead center and he can claim he's distant from Bush.  I would attack Fitz on his stem cell vote districtwide, choice in Central Bucks, and some of his anti-labor pump fakes in lower Bucks/NE Philly.  I think Pat Murphy is the candidate who can make Fitz give some answers on these issues.     
 
Moderate R- 4, 10

I don't know an awful lot about these areas, but I do know Hart is ultra rigth wing in a populist district and Sherwood has issues.  Jason Altmire is a good candidate and pro-life which I will concede we need to run in this area, plus he has raised a lot of money.  Need I go further on Sherwood?

Strong R- 3, 15, 18

A very strong Dem climate could makes these seats vulnerable, but it would damn near have to be Biblical considering the weak candidates the Dems put up.

Certain R- 5, 9, 16, 19

Well like I said earlier, a parking cone could be put up as a Republican and win here.

This results in:

Democratic Seats: 8
Republican Seats: 9
Tossup: 2

If we get both tossups, PA sends a Dem delegation to Congress, but we need BOTH.     

[nini2287]

My predicition is:

Weldon 54
Sestak 46

Outside of national GOP struggles, there really has been no new reason to vote out Curt Weldon.

[Keystone Phil]

Why did you do this, J.J.? You know Flyers and the others will think they have a shot there now... 

In all seriousness, I think the Dems are really getting their hopes up here. It is one thing to think about PA 6 and 8 but 7 isn't going to happen. Sestak is overrated. This won't be that close (Weldon will win by at least six points).

Your cockiness has bit you in the ass before.  Granted, Sestak is not a shoo-in by any means, but this is a tossup/weak GOP as I see it now. 

Your cockiness has bit you in the ass, too. Sestak is attractive but in the end the voters will stick with the guy they know and like.

Some people on here, especially Phil, thinks these are GOP shoo-ins.  Far from it.

Wrong. They aren't shoo-ins but they are definite favorites.

[J. J.]

CNN just did a story on the race.  I have a very bad feeling about this one.

[Sam Spade]

Fwiw, I would rate PA-7 as a better Democratic possible pickup than PA-8 at this moment.  Of course, that is below PA-6, and all three are above PA-10.

[Keystone Phil]

CNN just did a story on the race.  I have a very bad feeling about this one.

They aren't getting PA 7. How bad was the story?