More likely to flip: CA-25 (Mike Garcia) or CA-47 (probably open)?

[I’m not Stu]

I imagine Garcia's district won't change much. CA-47 is likely to change dramatically and lose most or all of Long Beach to CA-44. Which district is more likely to flip: CA-25 to Democrats or CA-47 to Republicans?

[Nyvin]

The only Republican area around CA-47 is Huntington Beach, and even that is just barely Republican.   CA-47 won't take in enough of Huntington Beach to flip to R's, it's currently a 62.4% Biden district.

[I’m not Stu]

The only Republican area around CA-47 is Huntington Beach, and even that is just barely Republican.   CA-47 won't take in enough of Huntington Beach to flip to R's, it's currently a 62.4% Biden district.

Do you mean CA-47 with most of Long Beach? I do not. I mean the new boundaries. I still think CA-25 is more likely to flip. How vulnerable is Garcia? I imagine CA-47 will elect an Asian Democrat in 2022.

[Stuart98]

CA-25, how is this a question? No republican is more likely to be screwed by redistricting than Garcia.

[I’m not Stu]

CA-25, how is this a question? No republican is more likely to be screwed by redistricting than Garcia.

What about Nunes or Steel? CA-47 might cover Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Cypress, Westminster, Fountain Valley, and Seal Beach.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

On, on what planet are you? It's Mike, the answer is always my job.

[beesley]

Even though I have no idea what you're asking the answer is CA-25/Garcia.

[I’m not Stu]

I think Michelle Steel (R-Fountain Valley) gets moved into CA-47 and loses to a Democrat. What happens to Mike Garcia?

[Jeppe]

I think Michelle Steel (R-Fountain Valley) gets moved into CA-47 and loses to a Democrat. What happens to Mike Garcia?

This is Dave Wasserman's map from the redistricting overview he did for California.

CA-25 becomes a safe D district, as Kevin McCarthy's district takes in a lot of uber-Republican northern LA County precincts.

The 44th gets dismantled and Long Beach gets put in CA-47, which remains a safe D district.

[I’m not Stu]

I think Michelle Steel (R-Fountain Valley) gets moved into CA-47 and loses to a Democrat. What happens to Mike Garcia?

This is Dave Wasserman's map from the redistricting overview he did for California.

CA-25 becomes a safe D district, as Kevin McCarthy's district takes in a lot of uber-Republican northern LA County precincts.

The 44th gets dismantled and Long Beach gets put in CA-47, which remains a safe D district.

That "CA-47" is effectively "CA-44". I expect Long Beach to be moved into CA-44.

[Nyvin]

There's really no reason to divide lancaster between CA-25 and CA-23,  just unite the metro in CA-25 and then put the rural western part of CA-25 into CA-23 and move CA-25 into Victorville if it needs more population.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I think Michelle Steel (R-Fountain Valley) gets moved into CA-47 and loses to a Democrat. What happens to Mike Garcia?

This is Dave Wasserman's map from the redistricting overview he did for California.

CA-25 becomes a safe D district, as Kevin McCarthy's district takes in a lot of uber-Republican northern LA County precincts.

The 44th gets dismantled and Long Beach gets put in CA-47, which remains a safe D district.

And like most of his maps, it doesn't make much sense, take a look at some of the maps in the megathread for a better idea of what'll happen

[I’m not Stu]

I always thought it was likely that Barragan will represent most of Long Beach. For some reason, I always believed much of the OC side of CA-47 gets merged with the northern region of CA-48, placing Steel in the new CA-47, who probably ends up losing to an Asian Democrat.

[beesley]

I always thought it was likely that Barragan will represent most of Long Beach. For some reason, I always believed much of the OC side of CA-47 gets merged with the northern region of CA-48, placing Steel in the new CA-47, who probably ends up losing to an Asian Democrat.

Your original question made out, to me at least, that Lowenthal would lose, or retire and his successor would lose, which is why I was confused.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cali 25, it is staying blue

[I’m not Stu]

I always thought it was likely that Barragan will represent most of Long Beach. For some reason, I always believed much of the OC side of CA-47 gets merged with the northern region of CA-48, placing Steel in the new CA-47, who probably ends up losing to an Asian Democrat.

Your original question made out, to me at least, that Lowenthal would lose, or retire and his successor would lose, which is why I was confused.

Lowenthal probably retires due to age. Lowenthal's options are run against Barragan in CA-44 or carpetbag into CA-47 and run against Steel. Most of Long Beach probably becomes part of CA-44 and likely will be represented by Barragan. The new CA-47 becomes largely Garden Grove, Westminster, Seal Beach, Fountain Valley, Cypress, and Huntington Beach. Who wins in CA-47, incumbent Michelle Steel or a Democratic challenger, maybe Diedre Nguyen?

[SevenEleven]

I think Michelle Steel (R-Fountain Valley) gets moved into CA-47 and loses to a Democrat. What happens to Mike Garcia?

This is Dave Wasserman's map from the redistricting overview he did for California.

CA-25 becomes a safe D district, as Kevin McCarthy's district takes in a lot of uber-Republican northern LA County precincts.

The 44th gets dismantled and Long Beach gets put in CA-47, which remains a safe D district.

Wasserman doesn't have a clue.

[I’m not Stu]

Wasserman's CA-42 is weird. Splitting Palmdale is also odd. I wonder if Garcia wins or loses.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Why are you so fixated on Lowenthal & de Leon?

[I’m not Stu]

Why are you so fixated on Lowenthal & de Leon?

De Leon is a boob. I live in Lowenthal's district, which probably gets cut.