Most likely outcome?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 57% approvals and D's are confident in pouring money into NC to secure 52 votes in case GA goes to a runoff.

Obama and Trumo were at 44% and Bill Clinton in their first midterm, Biden isn't at 47% anymore

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the GOP are the slight favorites in both chambers but I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest to see Dems retain both chambers or Dems retaining one of the chambers while the GOP flips the other one.

You really think so and Biden isn't at 40% approvals as I said on an earlier threatd Rs only go pbower2A approvals when Biden was at 47 not 57% apprivald

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obamacare was unpopular in 2009 and 2014 Red state Senate map we lost every red state with the exception of CO,  we have a blue Senate map, 2022

Cook rates PA and NC as Tossups and GA Lean D and he overrated Johnson in WI, he had Walker winning in WI in 2018/ while it was clear Evers was gonna win and changed it right before the Election which Evers won of course

230H and 52 make o make or break GA Runoff is durable.

This Recession started in 2020/ not 2021 and is the Trump Recession, with his huge tax cuts for rich that put us in deficits

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook hasn't come out with any House ratings and Evers is leading in WI and PA is likely D, if we have a 52/48 Senate we can retain the House

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Prez approval rating is what dictates the course of a midterm and Biden isn't at 40 percent until Cook and Sabato comes out with their rating charts, after Redistricting, it's not over yet for D's in the House and D's can secure a D 5 victory win PA, WI, GA, NH, and NC and net 53 seated in Senate

Conservatives like McCarthy thinks the Election is this yr, it's not, 2022 may see a Robust Economy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats are extremely unlikely to hold either the Senate or the House unless they add Puerto Rico and D.C., which they are presumably aware of and which is why those two will probably be added as states before then.

The Senate is less likely to flip than the House for other reasons as well, but NH/AZ/NV and (to a lesser extent) GA are all very much vulnerable on the D side, with PA being the only glaring GOP vulnerability at this point (WI/NC aren’t safe and NC in particular is underrated as a D pick-up opportunity, but I do think the environment will be too much for Democrats to overcome in those states). There’s absolutely no reason to assume that any of the D incumbents or challengers will run far ahead of Biden's approval %.

As far as overcoming "cyclical /historical patterns," yes, that’s very much possible for a Democratic incumbent, but something tells me that this trifecta won’t be the one to accomplish that.  

House: GOP +15-20, with an outside chance of as much as +25
Senate: GOP +3, although I wouldn’t be too surprised if it was +2 or +4

Really Biden has a 52% approval and it goes by Prez approvals go look at pbower2A approvals when Biden holds 50% approvals in PA, MI, WI, AZ, CO, GA and NH

306 blue wall he doesn't have 50% in FL or OH but in NC he does

Obama only lost Congress due to Obamacare unpopularity, the Election is in 2022/ not 2021

Biden only needs 52 Seats and we don't have Cook ratings in the House to overturn the Filibuster PA, WI, AZ and NH will go D and the question is do we get 52 seats to bypass Sinema on Filibuster and GA or NC will ice it for us

Of course you believe Rs are gonna win Congress you think the Election is in 2021/ and the Recession was caused by Biden, this is the Trump Recession that started in 2020/ not 2021, with Trump unaffordable tax cuts for the rich, why would Progressives want Rs back to give more tax cuts to rich

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The NV poll that shows Sisolak at 50% shows that Rs aren't gonna crack the 291 EC wall jusylt like they haven't since 2016 for 5 yrs

Warren is optimistic about NC she is imposing a Wealth tax so in case D's win NC which we haven't seen a poll yet from and Jeff Jackson is dangerous said by McCrory on Meet the Press Dems would solify 52 votes with or without GA Runoffs

We don't want Rs back when we voted them out for giving huge tax cuts to millionaires and big oil again, that's all they are gonna lose and Warren is proposing a wealth tax for a 52/48 Senate with GA, NC and OH as wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs flip both chambers. But all of the poll options are real possibilities.

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Cook has yet posted any House Rankings, it's not over yet when you have 21 mnths til the Election.

Users think the Election is in 2021/ not 2022, it's not over yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs flip both chambers. But all of the poll options are real possibilities.

.
Cook has yet posted any House Rankings, it's not over yet when you have 21 mnths til the Election.

Users think the Election is in 2021/ not 2022, it's not over yet

I'm not denying that?

The scenario where Republicans flip both chambers is the most likely just given precedent. But it's not "over" for the Dems by a long shot, which is why I said all 4 options are possibilities

Just don't forget Rs in 2010/2014 ran off unpopularity of ACA, Obamacare and 2018 Trump was being impeached and 2006/ there was a backlash against Bush W concerning  Foley and 2005Tsunami Katrina.

Bidens Prez has been tranquil since 2002/ when Bush W kept both Houses of Congress

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How do we have a 2010 level the Rs too 55 seats in the House base on purely unpopiof OBAMACARE

Obamacare is popular now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is overwhelmingly likely the GOP will flip both chambers. If they don't, they screwed up badly.

The Senate is less likely to flip. Republicans playing Defense there.

Republicans only need a Net Gain of 5 Seats in the House (Right now it's 222-213 DEM). I fall off my Chair if they don't get those 5 Seats regardless what shenanigans D's pull with Redistricting!

Of course you believe this, you are an R but the Election is in 2021 not 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is overwhelmingly likely the GOP will flip both chambers. If they don't, they screwed up badly.

The Senate is less likely to flip. Republicans playing Defense there.

Republicans only need a Net Gain of 5 Seats in the House (Right now it's 222-213 DEM). I fall off my Chair if they don't get those 5 Seats regardless what shenanigans D's pull with Redistricting!

Of course you believe this, you are an R but the Election is in 2022 not 2021
 You don't want D's to get the Trifecta again so they can cement the Statehood

It's not even time to campaign yet, Biden is worried about Covid not House ratings and he will campaign, just like he did for WARNOCK and Ossoff, campaign for Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republicans flip both chambers.

We easily could have a 2010 level wave in the House...but probably not the Senate, where Republicans are pretty much maxed out, and will only gain one or two seats, if even that.

Dems only hold 222 in the House seats compared to 257 in 2010.  The seats are just not there for a 63 seat gain for Republicans in the House.  

NY Express always assume R chances are greater than what they are

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Rs take over Congress, we are still gonna have Covid 19 and it's gonna suck unless we are released from these lockdowns the Rs can lose their Majority just as easily as D's unless we are free from lockdowns, everything won't be a Garden of Eden just because some users think that D's don't have a chance to rebound in House when the Election is 21 mnths away

I know the reaso  why users keep predicting an R takeover is because they are bored because we are still in lockdown mode. There is nothing to do but complain

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As ai said before, we came from under R, Prez, what difference will it make if Mccarthy and McConnell are Leaders, Trump didn't solve the Covid crisis, they are just gonna give more tax cuts to Millionaires.
Trump would be Prez if he solved the Covid crisis, which he didn't
They will lose their Majority again with a narrow Majority given the 2024 Senate map which Stabenow, Baldwin, Kaine, Klobuchar and Bob Casey Jr are up

Something the country doesn't need😭😭