Most likely outcome?

[Chips]

I think the GOP are the slight favorites in both chambers but I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest to see Dems retain both chambers or Dems retaining one of the chambers while the GOP flips the other one.

[Skill and Chance]

Dems might retain the Senate

House is Likely R

Most likely outcome is both go R, but the senate is only 51R/49D in the median case.

[Frenchrepublican]

Scenario #1 = 15%
Scenario #2 = 5%
Scenario #3 = 25%
Scenario #4 = 55%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 57% approvals and D's are confident in pouring money into NC to secure 52 votes in case GA goes to a runoff.

Obama and Trumo were at 44% and Bill Clinton in their first midterm, Biden isn't at 47% anymore

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the GOP are the slight favorites in both chambers but I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest to see Dems retain both chambers or Dems retaining one of the chambers while the GOP flips the other one.

You really think so and Biden isn't at 40% approvals as I said on an earlier threatd Rs only go pbower2A approvals when Biden was at 47 not 57% apprivald

[Chips]

I think the GOP are the slight favorites in both chambers but I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest to see Dems retain both chambers or Dems retaining one of the chambers while the GOP flips the other one.

You really think so and Biden isn't at 40% approvals as I said on an earlier threatd Rs only go pbower2A approvals when Biden was at 47 not 57% apprivald

No one knows what Biden's approvals will look like in November 2022 right now. If he retains his high 50's approval ratings into the 2022 elections, I definitely see a clear path for Dems in both but I find it unlikely his approvals would be quite that high by then.

Plus, Midterm elections have historically not had great results for the incumbent party in the White House. 2002 being the exception and not the rule. So, I currently think that the GOP will win both Houses with those two caveats but I definitely can see Dems retaining both.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obamacare was unpopular in 2009 and 2014 Red state Senate map we lost every red state with the exception of CO,  we have a blue Senate map, 2022

Cook rates PA and NC as Tossups and GA Lean D and he overrated Johnson in WI, he had Walker winning in WI in 2018/ while it was clear Evers was gonna win and changed it right before the Election which Evers won of course

230H and 52 make o make or break GA Runoff is durable.

This Recession started in 2020/ not 2021 and is the Trump Recession, with his huge tax cuts for rich that put us in deficits

[Orser67]

Rs flip both chambers. But all of the poll options are real possibilities.

[coloradocowboi]

The first by a long shot.

I dgaf about “trends” which rest on what is ultimately a very small sample size when nobody can explain to me how these mystical trends will overcome the GOP’s increasingly negative image with the part of the electorate that is most likely to vote, and who were the driving force behind their last major victory: college educated voters.

They are deep underwater with the key constituency they would need to win the midterms, and they keep doing things to antagonize them. I don’t see how they can surmount that absent major changes that they cannot and will not make. White working class turnout will definitely drop, no matter what they do. Without a plan to appear sane and responsible again, the GOP can’t win enough seats to take either chamber no matter how close they can get. Although of the two, I actually think the senate is more likely than the House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook hasn't come out with any House ratings and Evers is leading in WI and PA is likely D, if we have a 52/48 Senate we can retain the House

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Hot take but I actually think the Democrats are about as likely as not to retain the Senate; the 2010 results were terrible and the 2016 results were underwhelming so the map really isn't that bad even in a Biden midterm. Also, in both 2010 and 2018, the President's party overperformed in the Senate relative to pre-Election Day expectations (which in 2010 of course were extremely low, with Reid and Bennet among others going down). The House, on the other hand, is probably gone absent some truly horrendous Republican missteps and/or a national disaster that doesn't develop a culture war around it.

[Young Conservative]

FTR, This forum needs to stop saying "midterms are not a magical formula for opposition victory and surge."

Obviously, that is the case. The key point here is that to hold the house and senate (each about 50-50 currently), Democrats need a strongly favorable year. They will be hammered in redistricting and would need a net zero of senate seats despite defending seats in states that voted to the right of the nation. Do we really think even best case scenario for Dems the national environment will be Biden +5 equivalent again?

Republicans basically need a D+4 year or better to take both houses imo, and that seems completely likely.

Therefore, there is a greater than 50% atm (very far out, I am speculating the national environment will be somewhere between D+2 and R+5 in 2022) that the GOP takes back both houses.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Prez approval rating is what dictates the course of a midterm and Biden isn't at 40 percent until Cook and Sabato comes out with their rating charts, after Redistricting, it's not over yet for D's in the House and D's can secure a D 5 victory win PA, WI, GA, NH, and NC and net 53 seated in Senate

Conservatives like McCarthy thinks the Election is this yr, it's not, 2022 may see a Robust Economy

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats are extremely unlikely to hold either the Senate or the House unless they add Puerto Rico and D.C., which they are presumably aware of and which is why those two will probably be added as states before then.

The Senate is less likely to flip than the House for other reasons as well, but NH/AZ/NV and (to a lesser extent) GA are all very much vulnerable on the D side, with PA being the only glaring GOP vulnerability at this point (WI/NC aren’t safe and NC in particular is underrated as a D pick-up opportunity, but I do think the environment will be too much for Democrats to overcome in those states). There’s absolutely no reason to assume that any of the D incumbents or challengers will run far ahead of Biden's approval %.

As far as overcoming "cyclical /historical patterns," yes, that’s very much possible for a Democratic incumbent, but something tells me that this trifecta won’t be the one to accomplish that.  

House: GOP +15-20, with an outside chance of as much as +25
Senate: GOP +3, although I wouldn’t be too surprised if it was +2 or +4

[DaleCooper]

Hot take but I actually think the Democrats are about as likely as not to retain the Senate; the 2010 results were terrible and the 2016 results were underwhelming so the map really isn't that bad even in a Biden midterm. Also, in both 2010 and 2018, the President's party overperformed in the Senate relative to pre-Election Day expectations (which in 2010 of course were extremely low, with Reid and Bennet among others going down). The House, on the other hand, is probably gone absent some truly horrendous Republican missteps and/or a national disaster that doesn't develop a culture war around it.

Bennet may have just gotten lucky (and I think it's very possible that Kelly similarly lucks out and holds his seat), but Reid was an established incumbent in a fairly favorable state to him. None of the vulnerable Democrats this time are in states like Arkansas or Louisiana, but all of them are either brand new Senators that barely won in 2020 in the cases of Warnock and Kelly, or are one-term incumbents in competitive states in the cases of Hassan and Cortez Masto, though admittedly Nevada seems to be a more competitive state at the federal level these days than New Hampshire.

It's true that also unlike 2010 the Democrats have three potential pickup opportunities in 2022, but for now all of those seem like bigger reaches than any of the vulnerable Democratic Senators are for the GOP. It's possible that the GOP screws up the midterms for themselves and turns 2022 into a high-turnout referendum on Trump and his supporters again, and maybe in that case Democrats could hold their seats and pick up one or two, but I certainly wouldn't count on it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats are extremely unlikely to hold either the Senate or the House unless they add Puerto Rico and D.C., which they are presumably aware of and which is why those two will probably be added as states before then.

The Senate is less likely to flip than the House for other reasons as well, but NH/AZ/NV and (to a lesser extent) GA are all very much vulnerable on the D side, with PA being the only glaring GOP vulnerability at this point (WI/NC aren’t safe and NC in particular is underrated as a D pick-up opportunity, but I do think the environment will be too much for Democrats to overcome in those states). There’s absolutely no reason to assume that any of the D incumbents or challengers will run far ahead of Biden's approval %.

As far as overcoming "cyclical /historical patterns," yes, that’s very much possible for a Democratic incumbent, but something tells me that this trifecta won’t be the one to accomplish that.  

House: GOP +15-20, with an outside chance of as much as +25
Senate: GOP +3, although I wouldn’t be too surprised if it was +2 or +4

Really Biden has a 52% approval and it goes by Prez approvals go look at pbower2A approvals when Biden holds 50% approvals in PA, MI, WI, AZ, CO, GA and NH

306 blue wall he doesn't have 50% in FL or OH but in NC he does

Obama only lost Congress due to Obamacare unpopularity, the Election is in 2022/ not 2021

Biden only needs 52 Seats and we don't have Cook ratings in the House to overturn the Filibuster PA, WI, AZ and NH will go D and the question is do we get 52 seats to bypass Sinema on Filibuster and GA or NC will ice it for us

Of course you believe Rs are gonna win Congress you think the Election is in 2021/ and the Recession was caused by Biden, this is the Trump Recession that started in 2020/ not 2021, with Trump unaffordable tax cuts for the rich, why would Progressives want Rs back to give more tax cuts to rich

[Calthrina950]

Hot take but I actually think the Democrats are about as likely as not to retain the Senate; the 2010 results were terrible and the 2016 results were underwhelming so the map really isn't that bad even in a Biden midterm. Also, in both 2010 and 2018, the President's party overperformed in the Senate relative to pre-Election Day expectations (which in 2010 of course were extremely low, with Reid and Bennet among others going down). The House, on the other hand, is probably gone absent some truly horrendous Republican missteps and/or a national disaster that doesn't develop a culture war around it.

Bennet may have just gotten lucky (and I think it's very possible that Kelly similarly lucks out and holds his seat), but Reid was an established incumbent in a fairly favorable state to him. None of the vulnerable Democrats this time are in states like Arkansas or Louisiana, but all of them are either brand new Senators that barely won in 2020 in the cases of Warnock and Kelly, or are one-term incumbents in competitive states in the cases of Hassan and Cortez Masto, though admittedly Nevada seems to be a more competitive state at the federal level these days than New Hampshire.

It's true that also unlike 2010 the Democrats have three potential pickup opportunities in 2022, but for now all of those seem like bigger reaches than any of the vulnerable Democratic Senators are for the GOP. It's possible that the GOP screws up the midterms for themselves and turns 2022 into a high-turnout referendum on Trump and his supporters again, and maybe in that case Democrats could hold their seats and pick up one or two, but I certainly wouldn't count on it.

Hassan won by just over 1,000 votes in 2016 against Ayotte, and Cortez-Masto prevailed by ~27,000 votes against Heck (winning only Clark County). So these two are as vulnerable in my view as Warnock and Kelly. Hassan will be in additional jeopardy if Governor Sununu decides to run against her.

[Sir Mohamed]

#3 or #4.

I'm 85% sure the House will go GOP, and the senate is up in the air. Dems could hold it or even have a net gain of 1 seat, but it's reasonable to assume at least 1-2 Dems lose their seats while we narrowly fail to pick up PA, NC or WI.

[DaleCooper]

Hot take but I actually think the Democrats are about as likely as not to retain the Senate; the 2010 results were terrible and the 2016 results were underwhelming so the map really isn't that bad even in a Biden midterm. Also, in both 2010 and 2018, the President's party overperformed in the Senate relative to pre-Election Day expectations (which in 2010 of course were extremely low, with Reid and Bennet among others going down). The House, on the other hand, is probably gone absent some truly horrendous Republican missteps and/or a national disaster that doesn't develop a culture war around it.

Bennet may have just gotten lucky (and I think it's very possible that Kelly similarly lucks out and holds his seat), but Reid was an established incumbent in a fairly favorable state to him. None of the vulnerable Democrats this time are in states like Arkansas or Louisiana, but all of them are either brand new Senators that barely won in 2020 in the cases of Warnock and Kelly, or are one-term incumbents in competitive states in the cases of Hassan and Cortez Masto, though admittedly Nevada seems to be a more competitive state at the federal level these days than New Hampshire.

It's true that also unlike 2010 the Democrats have three potential pickup opportunities in 2022, but for now all of those seem like bigger reaches than any of the vulnerable Democratic Senators are for the GOP. It's possible that the GOP screws up the midterms for themselves and turns 2022 into a high-turnout referendum on Trump and his supporters again, and maybe in that case Democrats could hold their seats and pick up one or two, but I certainly wouldn't count on it.

Hassan won by just over 1,000 votes in 2016 against Ayotte, and Cortez-Masto prevailed by ~27,000 votes against Heck (winning only Clark County). So these two are as vulnerable in my view as Warnock and Kelly. Hassan will be in additional jeopardy if Governor Sununu decides to run against her.

Yeah, that's definitely true. Though to be fair to Hassan, she was going up against Ayotte who seemed like a fairly strong incumbent and certainly better than some other GOP Senators that won reelection that year. Though Hassan won by less, she did actually receive a higher share of the vote in her state than Cortez-Masto did in Nevada, where she only got 47% against Heck. I go back and forth on how I feel about Hassan's prospects. She's definitely vulnerable, especially against Sununu, but I still think based on the limited polling we've seen that she should be okay as long as she immediately starts preparing and taking her reelection seriously.

[Calthrina950]

Hot take but I actually think the Democrats are about as likely as not to retain the Senate; the 2010 results were terrible and the 2016 results were underwhelming so the map really isn't that bad even in a Biden midterm. Also, in both 2010 and 2018, the President's party overperformed in the Senate relative to pre-Election Day expectations (which in 2010 of course were extremely low, with Reid and Bennet among others going down). The House, on the other hand, is probably gone absent some truly horrendous Republican missteps and/or a national disaster that doesn't develop a culture war around it.

Bennet may have just gotten lucky (and I think it's very possible that Kelly similarly lucks out and holds his seat), but Reid was an established incumbent in a fairly favorable state to him. None of the vulnerable Democrats this time are in states like Arkansas or Louisiana, but all of them are either brand new Senators that barely won in 2020 in the cases of Warnock and Kelly, or are one-term incumbents in competitive states in the cases of Hassan and Cortez Masto, though admittedly Nevada seems to be a more competitive state at the federal level these days than New Hampshire.

It's true that also unlike 2010 the Democrats have three potential pickup opportunities in 2022, but for now all of those seem like bigger reaches than any of the vulnerable Democratic Senators are for the GOP. It's possible that the GOP screws up the midterms for themselves and turns 2022 into a high-turnout referendum on Trump and his supporters again, and maybe in that case Democrats could hold their seats and pick up one or two, but I certainly wouldn't count on it.

Hassan won by just over 1,000 votes in 2016 against Ayotte, and Cortez-Masto prevailed by ~27,000 votes against Heck (winning only Clark County). So these two are as vulnerable in my view as Warnock and Kelly. Hassan will be in additional jeopardy if Governor Sununu decides to run against her.

Yeah, that's definitely true. Though to be fair to Hassan, she was going up against Ayotte who seemed like a fairly strong incumbent and certainly better than some other GOP Senators that won reelection that year. Though Hassan won by less, she did actually receive a higher share of the vote in her state than Cortez-Masto did in Nevada, where she only got 47% against Heck. I go back and forth on how I feel about Hassan's prospects. She's definitely vulnerable, especially against Sununu, but I still think based on the limited polling we've seen that she should be okay as long as she immediately starts preparing and taking her reelection seriously.

Ayotte won 60% of the vote when she was initially elected in 2010, and did seem like a relatively strong incumbent, casting off the impression of a "moderate" (although she's farther to the right than Susan Collins or Lisa Murkowski, from what I understand). Hassan was the incumbent Governor at the time, and in a close race-similar to what we saw in Florida between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson in 2018-that gave her a solid position from which to narrowly defeat Ayotte. As for Cortez-Masto, the third-party vote in Nevada was larger than in New Hampshire (partly because of the "None of These Candidates" ballot option, unique to that state), which explains why she got a lower percentage than Hassan despite winning by a wider margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The NV poll that shows Sisolak at 50% shows that Rs aren't gonna crack the 291 EC wall jusylt like they haven't since 2016 for 5 yrs

Warren is optimistic about NC she is imposing a Wealth tax so in case D's win NC which we haven't seen a poll yet from and Jeff Jackson is dangerous said by McCrory on Meet the Press Dems would solify 52 votes with or without GA Runoffs

We don't want Rs back when we voted them out for giving huge tax cuts to millionaires and big oil again, that's all they are gonna lose and Warren is proposing a wealth tax for a 52/48 Senate with GA, NC and OH as wave insurance

[LabourJersey]

Rs flip both chambers. But all of the poll options are real possibilities.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs flip both chambers. But all of the poll options are real possibilities.

.
Cook has yet posted any House Rankings, it's not over yet when you have 21 mnths til the Election.

Users think the Election is in 2021/ not 2022, it's not over yet

[LabourJersey]

Rs flip both chambers. But all of the poll options are real possibilities.

.
Cook has yet posted any House Rankings, it's not over yet when you have 21 mnths til the Election.

Users think the Election is in 2021/ not 2022, it's not over yet

I'm not denying that?

The scenario where Republicans flip both chambers is the most likely just given precedent. But it's not "over" for the Dems by a long shot, which is why I said all 4 options are possibilities

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs flip both chambers. But all of the poll options are real possibilities.

.
Cook has yet posted any House Rankings, it's not over yet when you have 21 mnths til the Election.

Users think the Election is in 2021/ not 2022, it's not over yet

I'm not denying that?

The scenario where Republicans flip both chambers is the most likely just given precedent. But it's not "over" for the Dems by a long shot, which is why I said all 4 options are possibilities

Just don't forget Rs in 2010/2014 ran off unpopularity of ACA, Obamacare and 2018 Trump was being impeached and 2006/ there was a backlash against Bush W concerning  Foley and 2005Tsunami Katrina.

Bidens Prez has been tranquil since 2002/ when Bush W kept both Houses of Congress