Most likely outcome? (user search)
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Poll
Question: Most likely outcome for 2022 as of now?
#1
Dems retain both chambers
 
#2
Dems retain House, GOP flips Senate
 
#3
GOP flips House, Dems retain Senate
 
#4
GOP flips both chambers
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 97

Author Topic: Most likely outcome?  (Read 2459 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: March 04, 2021, 11:58:28 AM »

It is overwhelmingly likely the GOP will flip both chambers. If they don't, they screwed up badly.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2021, 08:51:57 AM »

It is overwhelmingly likely the GOP will flip both chambers. If they don't, they screwed up badly.
The Senate is less likely to flip. Republicans playing Defense there.

Republicans only need a Net Gain of 5 Seats in the House (Right now it's 222-213 DEM). I fall off my Chair if they don't get those 5 Seats regardless what shenanigans D's pull with Redistricting!

Republicans are only playing defense in PA, WI, and NC. States that Biden won by 1 point and a state that Trump won. Democrats are playing defense in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, also states Biden won by less than a point and 2 points, in addition to New Hampshire which can be competitive with Sununu. In 2018 Dems easily won in states Trump won narrowly. I don't expect the same thing for the GOP (because they're incompetent) but all it takes is a little wind blow and it's done. There's been no recent midterm where a party successfully holds all those narrow presidential wins, and considering R's just need to net 1, I think it's very likely that happens.
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