Rashida Talib vs Marjorie Taylor Greene

[Schiff for Senate]

I would vote independent or third party, and a good third-party or independent candidate with good funding (in the mould of Ross Perot), could potentially win.

However, there's a problem for Democrats. Their base is composed of more moderate voters in places like Orange County and Maricopa County, who could very plausibly depart from the base en masse to support a vyable independent or third party candidate, depriving Tlaib of key votes. All she would have is loyal Democrats as well as progressives. On the other hand, Greene would likely keep much of the base. Most of them are mad(ly pro-Trump) anyway, and with the exception of some rural/urban voters and many suburban voters who reluctantly voted for Trump in 2020, I could see most supporting Greene - a fellow Trump fanatic and 'populist.' And to add to that, the GOP's calling cry is to take down the 'radical left' - a term used to unite the base against mainstream Democrats like Biden and Harris. It can be used highly effectively against Tlaib, a truly radical Democrat who is probably the worst fear of many rural Trump voters. To put it another way, the Republicans have a smaller but much more loyal, devoted and radical base (with little inclination to support a moderate and high reason to detest Tlaib), while Democrats have a more moderate and less loyal base. So while Greene's path to 270 is very foggy, and quite possibly nonexistent (especially if a third-paty candidate or independent runs), I can see her potentially doing surprisingly well against Tlaib. Tlaib's saviour could be turbocharged turnout among young progressives who have disdain for Greene (and progressives generally). Greene is also doomed if Trump decides to disavow her (very unlikely) or run as an independent candidate himself (possible, though I don't know why he wouldn't just run for the nomination of his cult), which would splinter the base in a very similar fashion to the way Theodore Roosevelt did in 1912, paving the way for Wilson's (in this case a generic Democrat's) victory. (In my defense, as a general rule, I avoid comparing an environmentalist, progressive, reformer and beloved president to a twice-impeached wannabe dictator.)