McCarthy: 'I would bet my house' GOP takes back lower chamber in 2022

[Bootes Void]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/540848-mccarthy-i-would-bet-my-house-gop-takes-back-the-lower-chamber-in-2022

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said that he would “bet my house” that Republicans win the back majority in the House in 2022.

During an appearance at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), McCarthy was asked by American Conservative Union Chair Matt Schlapp about what the minority leader thought the likelihood is of Republicans taking back the lower chamber in the next midterm cycle.

“We’re going to get the majority back. We’re five seats away,” McCarthy exclaimed. “I would bet my house” on it, he continued.

Democrats won back control of the House in the so-called "blue wave" in the 2018 midterms, and won the House, Senate and White House in the 2020 elections.

However, Republicans exceeded expectations in the last election cycle when they were projected to lose 15 members, flipping several seats in the House and winning seats eyed by Democrats in the Senate.

Democrats currently only hold five seats over Republicans in the House, the narrowest House majority in modern history, and have a razor-thin advantage in a 50-50 Senate, with Vice President Harris serving as the tie-breaking vote.

lets see if he jinx it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, as on now D's would replicate the EC blue wall of 306/232 and net WI, PA Senate seats and the 52nd seat would go to a runoff with Warnock and we have competetive races in TX in the South, this is all this year before the Recovery.  Rs may or may not win but he has to say something to get Rs motivated

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would too. It's going to be pretty easy even if Trump getting involved in the House elections backfires on the GOP even slightly. Redistricting and historical precedent is all they really need.

I'll also go even further and suggest that the GOP will take the Senate back again as well.

I wouldn't bet on McCarthy necessarily being Speaker though, there's a non-zero chance that someone who is an even bigger Trump sycophant will challenge him for the position. I would hate for that person to be second-in-line for the presidency, but I would have some schadenfreude at McCarthy being denied the position of power he so eagerly wants. So I almost want to see that happen. It's what he deserves.

[YE]

He isn’t wrong given the depressing political realities of the country.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No, as on now D's would replicate the EC blue wall of 306/232 and net WI, PA Senate seats and the 52nd seat would go to a runoff with Warnock and we have competetive races in TX in the South, this is all this year before the Recovery.  Rs may or may not win but he has to say something to get Rs motivated

The blue wall is just a passing state of mind.

[Nyvin]

Probably...given the redistricting massacre democrats are set up for now.

[NewYorkExpress]

Even though he's probably right, betting one's house on something is usually a sign of a gambling problem and means that person should probably seek help.

[EastwoodS]

No, as on now D's would replicate the EC blue wall of 306/232 and net WI, PA Senate seats and the 52nd seat would go to a runoff with Warnock and we have competetive races in TX in the South, this is all this year before the Recovery.  Rs may or may not win but he has to say something to get Rs motivated

Seek help..

[Pericles]

Democrats have almost no room for any kind of midterm swing, they would have to defy history in a pretty big way to retain the House. The Senate is also very vulnerable with any kind of midterm swing, it may be slightly easier to hold than the House (this is not certain though) but still Democrats holding the Senate without adding new states would be a pretty great result.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, he’s probably right, but certainly not because of his genius party apparatus or the party's 'masterful' messaging. If they flip the House, thanks are due to the Democrats more so than the NRCC.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yes, he’s probably right, but certainly not because of his genius party apparatus or the party's 'masterful' messaging. If they flip the House, thanks are due to the Democrats more so than the NRCC.

This is of course the standard way midterms are won or lost.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, he’s probably right, but certainly not because of his genius party apparatus or the party's 'masterful' messaging. If they flip the House, thanks are due to the Democrats more so than the NRCC.

This is of course the standard way midterms are won or lost.

Well, as you so eloquently tend to say, the NRCC/NRSC has a nasty habit of "fighting the last war with yesterday's map," and their messaging (turning everything into a referendum on socialism, for instance) isn’t the most effective one, nor was it in Georgia. I’d argue that Democrats are smarter at identifying the right targets and tailoring their message to the relevant audiences in a particular district/state. It’s just that the national environment will probably be so favorable to the GOP that even a subpar strategy will do the job.

[SnowLabrador]

It would take an earth-shattering event for Democrats to hold the House in 2022. And yet it's never been more important that they do. The Democrats are very likely to lose the Senate in 2022 or 2024, and if they don't have at least one chamber of Congress, it doesn't matter who wins the 2024 Presidential election, for Congress will overrule the voters.

[hurricanehink]

Other users on this thread said Dems would to “defy history”, “Something earth shattering”. I suspect the Covid recovery/normalization will qualify as such. The Dems will get rewarded for passing the large Covid relief Bill, and for successfully vaccinating most of the country.

[SnowLabrador]

Other users on this thread said Dems would to “defy history”, “Something earth shattering”. I suspect the Covid recovery/normalization will qualify as such. The Dems will get rewarded for passing the large Covid relief Bill, and for successfully vaccinating most of the country.

I hope you're right.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yes, he’s probably right, but certainly not because of his genius party apparatus or the party's 'masterful' messaging. If they flip the House, thanks are due to the Democrats more so than the NRCC.

This is of course the standard way midterms are won or lost.

Well, as you so eloquently tend to say, the NRCC/NRSC has a nasty habit of "fighting the last war with yesterday's map," and their messaging (turning everything into a referendum on socialism, for instance) isn’t the most effective one, nor was it in Georgia. I’d argue that Democrats are smarter at identifying the right targets and tailoring their message to the relevant audiences in a particular district/state. It’s just that the national environment will probably be so favorable to the GOP that even a subpar strategy will do the job.

Same thing happened in 2010 and a lot of potential wins were missed precisely because of that strategy.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I'd bet my house that Democrats win back the House in 2024. Actually, maybe I won't bet anything... because Democrats were supposed to have a supermajority in the House and a comfortable Senate majority at this point.

Republicans are not exactly set for a massive wave here. 2010's losses were inflated largely by the final defeat of rural conservadems in the South and Midwest, so I wouldn't bet on next year looking anything like 2010 or even 2014.

[Mr. Smith]

I'd bet my house that Democrats win back the House in 2024. Actually, maybe I won't bet anything... because Democrats were supposed to have a supermajority in the House and a comfortable Senate majority at this point.

Republicans are not exactly set for a massive wave here. 2010's losses were inflated largely by the final defeat of rural conservadems in the South and Midwest, so I wouldn't bet on next year looking anything like 2010 or even 2014.

The current trajectory doesn't exactly give hope that 2010-2014 numbers are even needed anymore. Only 1 seat from Majority is a mandate is likely to be the norm.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I'd bet my house that Democrats win back the House in 2024. Actually, maybe I won't bet anything... because Democrats were supposed to have a supermajority in the House and a comfortable Senate majority at this point.

Republicans are not exactly set for a massive wave here. 2010's losses were inflated largely by the final defeat of rural conservadems in the South and Midwest, so I wouldn't bet on next year looking anything like 2010 or even 2014.

The current trajectory doesn't exactly give hope that 2010-2014 numbers are even needed anymore. Only 1 seat from Majority is a mandate is likely to be the norm.

If the battles are all going to be in the suburbs, probably. But the Capitol insurrection, refusal to impeach Trump, and lack of GOP support on stimulus checks isn't going to help Republicans in those areas next year. And every time AOC's name comes up, we'll just throw the MTG card right back at them.

Republicans are losing support both with wishy-washy centrists and diehard Trump supporters who will refuse to vote for anyone to the left of Lauren Boebert (assuming they still believe US elections are legitimate or worth participating in). Biden meanwhile will remain an afterthought. It might be a good year for Republicans next year, but unless Hispanics trend for them again they're not very likely to make lasting inroads.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah if the Election was held today, then we would lose the House but it's not today it's next yr and we have plenty of time for an Full Economic Rebound..Rs voting against Stimulus bit voting in favor of huge tax cuts doesn't help their cause

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It would take an earth-shattering event for Democrats to hold the House in 2022. And yet it's never been more important that they do. The Democrats are very likely to lose the Senate in 2022 or 2024, and if they don't have at least one chamber of Congress, it doesn't matter who wins the 2024 Presidential election, for Congress will overrule the voters.

Snowlabrador thinks that Recessions that Trump and Bush W created, by huge tax cuts not with stimulus checks are pernament and last forever, no they don't

[S019]

It would take an earth-shattering event for Democrats to hold the House in 2022. And yet it's never been more important that they do. The Democrats are very likely to lose the Senate in 2022 or 2024, and if they don't have at least one chamber of Congress, it doesn't matter who wins the 2024 Presidential election, for Congress will overrule the voters.

Snowlabrador thinks that Recessions that Trump and Bush W created, by huge tax cuts not with stimulus checks are pernament and last forever, no they don't

He isn't wrong in this case though, at least for the first two parts. Overruling the voters is doomerism, but his first two points are right. 2022 will likely be a massive Republican wave as a president's first midterm almost always results in a stunning rebuke in the modern era, and the 2024 map is awful for Senate Democrats, it's very hard to see how they avoid no net losses as they must win three of: MT/WV/OH/FL/TX, sure it's possible, but very, very unlikely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Without polls we can't assume anything you believe that D's can't expand the map in 2022/ but Biden is net positive in NC and WI, PA, GA looks good for us, 52 seats seems likely in Senate and the Economy will dictate the House.

But assuming without polls that 2022 or 2024 is over we might as well not even vote, which I will never do, due to fact Rs are gonna win, which isn't true 21 mnths til the Election

Snowlabrador, MT Treasurer, Pericles, French Republican all predicted Rs to sweep GA too, Rs lost GA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If we get 52 seats give it take NC or GA, with Runoff, we dissolve the Filibuster and get DC statehood and won't have to worry about 2024 map, we bypass Sinema, if we narrowly hold the House

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It would take an earth-shattering event for Democrats to hold the House in 2022. And yet it's never been more important that they do. The Democrats are very likely to lose the Senate in 2022 or 2024, and if they don't have at least one chamber of Congress, it doesn't matter who wins the 2024 Presidential election, for Congress will overrule the voters.

Snowlabrador thinks that Recessions that Trump and Bush W created, by huge tax cuts not with stimulus checks are pernament and last forever, no they don't

Tax cuts by themselves do not create recessions. Recessions are created by a collapse in demand. The collapse in demand in 2007 occurred because of the credit crunch crimping off access to debt fueled consumption and the collapse in 2020 was because Covid caused everyone to be locked inside for public health concerns.

Tax cuts can make existing deficiencies worse and can enlarge a bubble as happened with Housing but not directly cause a financial decline. The most direct cause of the 2007-2009 recession was the legalization of Mortgage Backed Securities in the late 1990s, allowing for the spreading of the impact of the collapse in housing through all the financial institutions instead of leaving it contained. This, coupled with mark to market accounting, forcing same said institutions to eat these loses and thus in turn severely restrict access to credit and even collapse in some cases.

Also, I find it extremely annoying when people, often pro-Trump types say "no one ever gave out stimulus checks before Trump". Bush sent them out in the early 2000s and again in early 2008, and Obama sent them out spread over two years in peoples paychecks followed by another two years of a payroll tax cut. Whenever, I point this out usually it ends with them insulting my intelligence because obviously they cannot possibly be wrong. No one is every wrong anymore, the echo-chamber disinformation commands it be so.