Rate TX-24 in 2022

[MargieCat]

Not sure what redistricting will look like. It might even get delayed.

But assuming the same boundaries, how would you rate Van Duyne's race?

She will have two things going for her.
-The incumbency
-Possible red wave during a Biden midterm.

She has several things against her.
-Biden won this district by a whopping 5 points
-Trump will not be on the ballot
-Her opponent did not in-person canvas due to COVID, which will not be an issue in 2022 (democrats are going to in-person canvas next time even if COVID is still an isuse).

-She also refused to strip MTG of committee assignments and voted to overturn the election results. Those might help her or hurt her.

-Also, her rhetoric is somewhat inflammatory and seems kind of snotty.

[Calthrina950]

Not sure what redistricting will look like. It might even get delayed.

But assuming the same boundaries, how would you rate Van Duyne's race?

She will have two things going for her.
-The incumbency
-Possible red wave during a Biden midterm.

She has several things against her.
-Biden won this district by a whopping 5 points
-Trump will not be on the ballot
-Her opponent did not in-person canvas due to COVID, which will not be an issue in 2022 (democrats are going to in-person canvas next time even if COVID is still an isuse).

-She also refused to strip MTG of committee assignments and voted to overturn the election results. Those might help her or hurt her.

-Also, her rhetoric is somewhat inflammatory and seems kind of snotty.

From your description, it seems that Van Duyne is voting as if Trump won her district by a landslide margin. But then again, most of the Biden District Republicans have been voting as if they represent AL-04. Valadao and Katko were the only ones to vote for Trump's impeachment.

[Young Conservative]

It won't be the same district, but she could still probably win if it was albeit tightly.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I recall speculation that she is voting this way because she is expecting to be given a seat that leans much more to the right.

[Calthrina950]

I recall speculation that she is voting this way because she is expecting to be given a seat that leans much more to the right.

That makes sense. I suspect Republicans are going to try to shore up not only her, but also Taylor, Crenshaw, McCaul, etc. and perhaps create an additional seat or two that will lean their way. They would be well advised to create one Democratic seat for the majority of Travis County. That would take a number of congressional districts out of contention for Democrats. Beto O'Rourke was able to come within single digits in several of them in 2018 thanks to his dominating performance in Travis.

[MargieCat]

I recall speculation that she is voting this way because she is expecting to be given a seat that leans much more to the right.

That makes sense. I suspect Republicans are going to try to shore up not only her, but also Taylor, Crenshaw, McCaul, etc. and perhaps create an additional seat or two that will lean their way. They would be well advised to create one Democratic seat for the majority of Travis County. That would take a number of congressional districts out of contention for Democrats. Beto O'Rourke was able to come within single digits in several of them in 2018 thanks to his dominating performance in Travis.

If they were smart, they would pack most of Austin into a democratic sink that doesn't go down to San Antonio.

Then they could have John Carter's northern suburban district (Williamson County) be purplish.

[Tekken_Guy]

I recall speculation that she is voting this way because she is expecting to be given a seat that leans much more to the right.

That makes sense. I suspect Republicans are going to try to shore up not only her, but also Taylor, Crenshaw, McCaul, etc. and perhaps create an additional seat or two that will lean their way. They would be well advised to create one Democratic seat for the majority of Travis County. That would take a number of congressional districts out of contention for Democrats. Beto O'Rourke was able to come within single digits in several of them in 2018 thanks to his dominating performance in Travis.

If they were smart, they would pack most of Austin into a democratic sink that doesn't go down to San Antonio.

Then they could have John Carter's northern suburban district (Williamson County) be purplish.

All they need to do to shore up Carter is find territory redder than Bell to counteract Williamson.

[Frenchrepublican]

I would say Likely R because the district will be probably redrawn in order to be much more conservative, I guess that TX-32 will be turned into a sink and that the most left leaning parts of TX-24 will be put there.

[SnowLabrador]

If the districts remained the same, Lean R. But because the districts will be gerrymandered to hell, Safe R.

[MargieCat]

Beth doesn't seem too bright. She's in a Biden +5 district.
https://twitter.com/Bethvanduyne/status/1364954980772364296

[Vosem]

Beyond Safe R (and I'm surprised I'm the first person to vote this way). It's very, very easy to give her a seat that's like Trump+15 (and if you want to protect her specifically it's not hard to give her one that's past Trump+20), and the TXGOP has a long record of protecting all of their incumbents even when some probably don't deserve it (see Farenthold a decade ago). Impossible for me to imagine Van Duyne not getting a locked-down seat for the next decade.